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Wintry 2/3-2/4 Mixed Bag NC, SC, NE GA

Webberweather53 said:
HRRR has busted horribly on overnight lows here lately in NC, it was off by several degrees just last night and only pushed RDU into the mid 20s, we reached 17...
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You think it could be further east with the ice?
 
Spurs up said:
I'm already 37 (forecast low of 36) clear skies and dp of 16. hmmmm
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There are pockets of 34 as of an hour ago here in Lexington's area. The southwesterly flow should start to bring these up quickly before precipitation gets going, but who knows.
 
Shawn said:
There are pockets of 34 as of an hour ago here in Lexington's area. The southwesterly flow should start to bring these up quickly before precipitation gets going, but who knows.
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I'm down to 35 now dropped 2 degrees last hour. I don't want zr anyway so I'm good with staying above freezing!!
 
ForsythSnow said:
Just noticed we were upgraded to a winter weather advisory here. Not a good sign to come if the NWS is expecting more areas to receive ice. Only expecting up to a tenth of an inch per advisory here.
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That sounds about right, the folks in Upstate SC may be in more trouble. I think this is the first 3km NAM run that gets light icing down to Forsyth County.
 
My wet bulb here in the upstate right now is 28 that's not good. And as the night goes on I'm sure that number will go lower

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Here around CAE, looks like the majorty of higher resolution modeling has us right around 35F+ as the precipitation moves in and we eventually make it into the 50's tomorrow. Surely these models aren't going to bust for us. That'd be quite a problem, and we will see come 7AM or so, if moisture starts to stream out ahead. In situations like these, little "fingers" of moisture are possible that modeling does not pick up on.
 
Shawn said:
Here around CAE, looks like the majorty of higher resolution modeling has us right around 35F+ as the precipitation moves in and we eventually make it into the 50's tomorrow. Surely these models aren't going to bust for us. That'd be quite a problem, and we will see come 7AM or so, if moisture starts to stream out ahead. In situations like these, little "fingers" of moisture are possible that modeling does not pick up on.
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I'm sitting at 33 dp 18 thick clouds rolling in
 
ForsythSnow said:
This looks like a fun sleet storm. Either that or there's going to be a ton of ice accretion.
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There's no way heavier rates won't release enough latent heat (from liquid turning ti ice, it gives off heat) to keep the surface at 32F. Serious ice storms generally need to be 28-29F or so with heavy precipitation.

Of course, I am just going by that one sounding.
 
Im in royston, GA tonight from Birmingham. Im just south of I-85 on GA/SC line. From my days of growing up in Gainesville,Ga this feels like a CAD Ice event in the making. Models are never right when they show Zr changing to rain. The transition never occurs sometimes.
 
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