J1C1111
Member
The way it's looking no matter what track it takes you will end up getting some snow. How much who knows.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
alfoman
Member
More stream seperation on the CMC thorugh 36 hr- a definite trend into the 12z suite
iGRXY
Member
EURO/GFS ends up actually bout the same over SC in terms of track. Difference is the column is colder with the GFS.
rburrel2
Member
Best I can tell on the cruddy ukmet maps.. the 5h low is a little south and east of it's 00z position at 72hrs.
Avalanche
Member
Sweet spot for NC’linians seems to be Little Switzerland, Spruce Pines, to Linville area.
iGRXY
Member
CMC has more separation but the ULL isn't as strong so let's see how much that affects it
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Should have Airbnb’d my place out this weekend and stayed with my neighbor.
Thor
Member
Reality check
CltNative90
Member
Of course I was up there a week too early. At least I got to see some snow on the ground at Carvers Gap though, just none falling from the sky.
It looks like a very similar track as the GFS (roughly Columbus, GA to off Hatteras), but it's a bit faster. So, it likely had a bit less stream separation this run. It's probably not as cold as the GFS
We can all agree here the CMC is probably the best outcome for the all of us
rburrel2
Member
My hope is the western upstate can manage some snow with that track. If you trust the NAM thermals(risky but plausible), it still manages some decent snow here even though it's on the northern end guidance with respect to the 500mb low. So one would assume we'd be in a decent spot with the further south/east track of the GFS/Ukmet/icon.
rburrel2
Member
That's one heck of a mean for the Northern upstate and mountains. Let's hold it right here!
Spann essentially says Bama is out of picture on this but he leaves the door open stating these types of Lows can bring surprises.
If you’re expecting snow with this don’t. Consistent and constant trends away from any cold air .. this is one of the warmer upper low set ups I’ve seen. If you're holding out hope for the GFS and NAM .. don’t they’ll die on a hill showing snow until hour 0. If you do get snow consider yourself one of the lucky few outside of the mountains. Sorry to be the webby downer on this one but no cold air is a coffin stuffer.
I want to see what the Euro shows here. The GFS is pretty dynamic with the closed contour upper low. It's gaining strength as it rolls thru GA into the Carolinas which is a plus. Normally when the GFS hops on board with the strength of the upper low / wave like that, it doesn't just back off over the last 2 days, so I'm kind of expecting the same here, but curious on what the Euro will show. You get that kind of strength, and you get the better dynamics and temp crash. In terms of track, yeah seeing the UKMet wobble south helps here, but some NW trend over the last 2 days is always lurking
James is always non-committal to ULL's and rightfully so.
Jason Simpson
?? ?
Saturday still looks pretty interesting! Some rain and some snowflakes possible. Upper lows sometimes bring surprises...
Stormlover
Member
He'll play catchup again. Some other Ala mets are not so dismissive
severestorm
Member
Do not expect the NW trend to abate. Normally over amped NAM's been the opposite per verification.
The question is will there be a reason to play catch up? I feel like I am in a good spot but still have a lot of doubts too. I think his take is very prudent.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
This whole thing is very confusing for someone trying to figure out where to chase to.
BEST COMMENT EVER!
NoSnowATL
Member
This isn't the storm to chase.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I'm desperate and March is only 3 weeks away. This may be the last chance.
rburrel2
Member
Check out the South trend with the 5h low over Illinois.
Stormlover
Member
Well it could be, it's just hard to know where to go as it will change up until the last minute
Yeah i think those areas will do good they always do in setups like these. I'm loving the foot total over my house near Marion even with kuthera but I'm not buying it.
You need elevation with this storm. Gatlinburg will struggle Boone's the sweet spot imo.
Boone it's pretty simple imo
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
It's just that Boone is far away for me, so I was thinking Waynesville area.
NCHighCountryWX
Member
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2016
- Messages
- 531
- Reaction score
- 1,461
Local NWS guidance
Almost a warm rain with the boundary layer temps. Still completely and only a mountain event here. So unfortunate this could’ve been big for many if we had an ounce of cold air to work with
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,654
- Reaction score
- 10,791
TY, I’m headed to Boone in the morning
Thor
Member
So Sunday evening looks to be the thick of it up there. The roads shouldn't be terrible in this set up though because of Temps. As soon as you head off the mountain there will be no issues at all. If you wait until later it will be probably be increasingly difficult to leave, and also why would you want to haha.Heading to Boone this weekend, wondering if I will be able to make it out SundayI'm fine if the answer is no!