Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

[LukeBarrette]

6z

New 12z
How do you take this model seriously

 

[jrips27]

 

[Parker]

?

 

[BullCityWx]

i just dont trust the gfs though, feels like all rain and we see this thing trend west through verification.

I think something falls, even if it is just a trace of snow or sleet. Of course, I am hoping for much more.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Nice band on the nam for NGA

 

[Parker]

?

Trending towards a March 2009….

 

[rburrel2]

NAM says that the boundary layer is a non issue here. Just waiting on the cold pool aloft. Nice to see that and if true the western upstate can get a decent snow even with the further north track.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Mountains buried on the NAM. Wide area thumpage

 

[LukeBarrette]

10:1, not done in VA in this image

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Quite the jump NW there. @Tarheel1 needs to be on his toes up in Canada or North Dakota or wherever he lives

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’d go to Cashiers ?‍

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

I may go to Crossville, TN. They have a little bit of elevation.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

There continues to be less cold air every cycle of runs.. this is getting embarrassing for us all ?

 

[BullCityWx]

I really like that far SW end of NC from about Cherokee to Murphy

 

[KyloG]

One positive for us in central NC is the west trend has brought us into the dryslot for rain. Major victory for us this winter.

 

[severestorm]

Yuck! Not enjoying the freezing rain part.

 

[DixieBlizzard]

10:1, not done in VA in this image

This is the best look so far in the GA Blue Ridge and near @EmersonGA and @WXinCanton. Not the final solution by a longshot but it would be a nice surprise. You too @J.C.

 

[buckinbronco]

ICON looks to have more stream separation as well

 

[iGRXY]

Not going to end well here as well.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

More stream separation ain’t what you want. Before you know it only the mountains get freezing rain and that’s it.

 

[KyloG]

12z ICON

 

[BullCityWx]

ICON is a little bit better up this way. I'll be interested to see the extrapolated data soon.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

12z nam

That’s the 06z ECMWF

 

[BullCityWx]

This is the 6z but it seems like the ICON tries to start everybody above that grey line as snow

 

[Stormlover]

12Z NAM

 

[BullCityWx]

Can you imagine loving snow in Tuscaloosa with that map? Columbus gets over half a foot, BHM 3" and you get nothing.

 

[iGRXY]

More stream separation on the GFS

 

[SnowQueen]

View attachment 132731

This is the 6z but it seems like the ICON tries to start everybody above that grey line as snow

That snow line is 40miles as the crow flies... typical

 

[Thor]

 

[jrips27]

Surface temps are going to be above freezing throughout the majority of whatever event takes place in AL/GA. So probably a good idea to significantly cut whatever Kuchera is showing cause there’s gonna be some ongoing melting. Here’s the euro snow depth change which looks pretty plausible to me right now

 

[iGRXY]

Things that remain consistent ----> N/S being progressive, ULL's digging much more.

 

[iGRXY]

Gross

 

[iGRXY]

It's still going to end up well more than likely but the trend continues

 

[iGRXY]

 

[griteater]

12z GFS

 

[KyloG]

I am moving to Atlanta...snow capital of the SE

 

[Shaggy]

It's still going to end up well more than likely but the trend continues

The ukie and the euro have been firing warning shots for the foothills and western NC/SC the gfs is still the snowiest and thats a dangerous basket to out your eggs in against the Ukie and the euro.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Surface temps are going to be above freezing throughout the majority of whatever event takes place in AL/GA. So probably a good idea to significantly cut whatever Kuchera is showing cause there’s gonna be some ongoing melting. Here’s the euro snow depth change which looks pretty plausible to me right now View attachment 132738

“I’m all about the rates, the rates, the rates, not ratios…”

 

[iGRXY]

 

[NCSNOW]