It could be legit mixed precip.
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
on one hand, raging WAA on top of a wedge is classic ice. on the other hand the max temp in the column looks to be like 2-3 degrees C and may not be enough to stop the refreeze into sleet. all i'll say is, even in classic ice situations, both the width of the ice corridor and the ice max seem to be smaller than what models suggest, often by a large degree in my experience
The EPS also halted the trend of less confluence and is bringing it back. Give me more of this and it’ll change the characteristics of this storm quick
Wow. Pangu does not output precip, but does output vertical temps and mslp so we can plot those together. Looks strikingly similar to the 00z GFS!
Y'all will really like this frame... with a deepening cyclone..
We are so back 
iGRXY
Member
I’ve been ringing this bell from the jump. This is how even with a phase we can still get something frozen.
That looks better for board wide.
iGRXY
Member
Significantly improved
Would love to see this continue for me to get excited but man the fish is eyeing the lure/bait 
The EPS looks good for snow but really highlights the threat of IP/ZR for CAD regions as well
iGRXY
Member
The biggest thing in my opinion is we keep trending to a slower and deeper 50/50 like is being shown. Even with a more amped wave we can keep heights suppressed across the southeast and elevated over the Great Lakes which is how you raise pressures and instill CAD. Now that also means we probably get a Jan 2022 redux of front end FGEN snow before the transition over to ZR/Sleet vs an all snow event but beggars can’t be choosers at this point.
posting these because I like the layers on this site. Good run. Back to bed
The 18z Navgem was almost as perfect as we could ask for midlands of SC.
Was thinking suppression is good at this time frame. Either way let’s hope it trend better for us. 2-4 degrees is all needed for CAE on all these models for wintry wx.
Snowlover34
Member
The weather channel has updated their forecast for my area here
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2025
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 08 2025 - 12Z Sun Jan 12 2025
...However meanwhile, there remains an uncertain signal for extent of south-central U.S. rain/winter precipitation development to monitor that leads into a potentially stormy/wintry pattern out through the South and East Caost/western Atlantic to monitor heading into/through next weekend as guidance is having trouble with progressions and potential interactions of main systems within separated northern and southern stream flows.
...forecast spread and cycle to cycle continuity issues have significantly increased heading into and through next weekend in potentially more active flow as guidance grapples with major stream phasing and system timing/focus differences in a pattern with rapidly lowering predictability over time. This seems evident with the models, ensembles and machine learning guidance. Accordingly, WPC medium range products valid for this time frame were primarily derived from the National Blend of Models as adjusted mainly toward the ECMWF ensemble mean as this combination seemed to best maintain WPC continuity and reasonings pending upcoming stabilization of a more common guidance signal. The latest 00 UTC guidance cycle does not seem to yet provide this.
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2025
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 08 2025 - 12Z Sun Jan 12 2025
...However meanwhile, there remains an uncertain signal for extent of south-central U.S. rain/winter precipitation development to monitor that leads into a potentially stormy/wintry pattern out through the South and East Caost/western Atlantic to monitor heading into/through next weekend as guidance is having trouble with progressions and potential interactions of main systems within separated northern and southern stream flows.
...forecast spread and cycle to cycle continuity issues have significantly increased heading into and through next weekend in potentially more active flow as guidance grapples with major stream phasing and system timing/focus differences in a pattern with rapidly lowering predictability over time. This seems evident with the models, ensembles and machine learning guidance. Accordingly, WPC medium range products valid for this time frame were primarily derived from the National Blend of Models as adjusted mainly toward the ECMWF ensemble mean as this combination seemed to best maintain WPC continuity and reasonings pending upcoming stabilization of a more common guidance signal. The latest 00 UTC guidance cycle does not seem to yet provide this.
00Z UKMET:
New WPC day 6 map. This came south a bit from the area they highlighted yesterday
Absolute monster EPS run at 00z
tractor girl
Member
Could you pull one for Athens, GA?
Eww 00z AIFS coming in really amped full of WAA
Can you post Columbia SC?
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
The traditional models trended from worse to much better, AIFs went from what we wanted to toss material
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Just found this out, found plumes for the AIFS, this is for CLT. For the remainder of the storm the majority of the 00z AIFS ens plumes has CLT below 0c at 850mb 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I don’t think I can go back to sleep after seeing that eps. Nice to see some positive trends and hopefully we can keep trending in that direction even more. Been 4-5 days since the mean was anything like that.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Wow, looks good to me, below 0C, I’m assuming that’s all snow for the most part, I’ll take it regardless.
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Looks like the AIFS is more euroish, big cold CAD as well, likely would be mixed ptypes. Different look
Definitely mixed precip with a front end snow thump, but Dang temps in the upper-mid 20s during the height of the storm 
Yeah looks like temps are only marginal for a very small time (here at least) before going back below freezing. You got a guess on where you think this will land?
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
WPC’s morning discussion
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If I was betting man, I’d bet we got the more mix/amped miller Bish hybrid route. But I would cash out with that AIFS run. that’s some legit 2m cold during the height of the storm
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I know the CMC is not the best, but the ensembles are still showing a gulf/SE coast offshore track, not a bad look imo. I know the OP was a day later than this, but if we can get a colder solution I’m all for it.
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Looks like the icon is turning the page to a more euroish/AIFush type beat
Avalanche
Member
So the surface temps would be below freezing if the 850’s went south on us? Would you think mostly sleet or fzrn then? Sorry I don’t have the boundary thermal profiles to see. Thank you!!!
Seems like the trend to a more phased system is encouraging heigher heights in SE Canada sandwiched between the plains trof and 50/50, which is giving us a new feed of cold via a weak area of descent to our N before the main stuff arrives, if we go that route it encourages a more fresher feed of cold with the tradeoff being more mixing given the processes of CAD. A flatter wave that’s more northern stream heavy is more snow with less warm nosing but 2M temps are just a little more marginal given a more northern stream dominated wave brings its own cooler air aloft but still with a more stale sfc given it cuts off that feed quicker.