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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Myfrotho704_ said:
Seems like the trend to a more phased system is encouraging heigher heights in SE Canada sandwiched between the plains trof and 50/50, which is giving us a new feed of cold via a weak area of descent to our N before the main stuff arrives, if we go that route it encourages a more fresher feed of cold with the tradeoff being more mixing given the processes of CAD. A flatter wave that’s more northern stream heavy is more snow with less warm nosing but 2M temps are just a little more marginal given a more northern stream dominated wave brings its own cooler air aloft but still with a more stale sfc given it cuts off that feed quicker.
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This might be a nowcast when it’s in the mid-south for us?
 
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Bouncy’s wx model blend (00z primarily GFS camp?) total snow and frzra


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Myfrotho704_ said:
Possibly. But it’s interesting that models are catching on to the higher low level cold with the setup now, and we’re gonna have a fresh snowpack above us. Wonder if that’s contributing to the colder look
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I guess my main fear with an amped system with mixed precip types is how cold the surface will be. I’ve seen sleet and freezing rain raise surface temps just due to the energy created from the freezing itself. I know that sounds odd but it happens
 
jrips27 said:
Back to this gross mess and too warm for most to snowView attachment 159797
View attachment 159798
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GFS is the warmest out the euro/AIFS look, and they all look similar, but looking at it careful the GFS has the weakest/furthest east vortex off the EC out of the trio. We really want that thing to trend slower off the EC/more backed up so we can make a miller B work with better Ptypes
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lower heights nosing in from the Atlantic more this GEFS run, but looks like it’s gonna go full send on a phase. Hope yall like sleet and frzrView attachment 159804
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We can still get lots of front end snow with a full phase. Sucks it won't be all snow... but such is life here. This is setting up to be exactly like all the more recent major winter storms we've had where sleet/freezing rain is an issue after a front end thump. Shouldn't be surprised. At least we're tracking a bonafide winter storm... and still in the game for an all snow event too.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lower heights nosing in from the Atlantic more this GEFS run, but looks like it’s gonna go full send on a phase. Hope yall like sleet and frzrView attachment 159804
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Yeah everything is pointing one way now. Like I said yesterday, GEFS is trending toward the EPS. It was a full cave.
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-vort500_z500-1736056800-1736467200-1736467200-40.gifecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-vort500_z500-1736035200-1736467200-1736467200-40.gif
 
1300m said:
Yeah everything is pointing one way now. Like I said yesterday, GEFS is trending toward the EPS. It was a full cave.
View attachment 159805View attachment 159806
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Yup. Looks like we’re unfortunately going to what we been doing recently and getting a mess of a storm. All I can say is we better trend stronger/further west with that Atlantic trough for better results
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yup. Looks like we’re unfortunately going to what we been doing recently and getting a mess of a storm. All I can say is we better trend stronger/further west with that Atlantic trough for better results
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In-situ CAD is about all we're going to have going for us. Slop at best. Could see this continuing to trend more amped, which obviously won't help either.
 
1300m said:
In-situ CAD is about all we're going to have going for us. Slop at best. Could see this continuing to trend more amped, which obviously won't help either.
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I’m not dead on this one yet. Maybe it’s because I’m down bad to the point that I would take a slop storm, but imho we still got time to either gain more confluence to our Ne or lose it, we haven’t really had a -NAO to go along with our setups recently that accompany a 50/50 low, that’s really what’s making me hold out hope here is that feature. That feature did make the overnight EPS look so much better, and even the euro, being further into a CAD region helps as well. But we really did fumble a what could have been amazing setup for snow
 
From KATL morning discussion..

Late week continues to be the time to watch regarding any potential
for impactful winter precipitation across the area. While model
consensus continues to favor the approach of a Gulf low Friday into
Friday night, substantial uncertainty regarding details remain at
this juncture. With the aforementioned cold airmass in place, a
southern track low pressure system would expose more of the forecast
area to potential winter precipitation, while a more northerly track
would shift the risk farther northward. 00Z GFS and ECMWF ensembles
do show a broad swath of 30-60+% probabilities of at least 1" of
snow across north Georgia, so this system will certainly bear
watching. Still, with this potential remaining 5-6 days out,
questions regarding the exact track and timing of this Gulf low and
the resultant ptype, amounts, et cetera will remain unanswered.
Given these uncertainties, frozen precip type was limited to snow
and rain/snow on Friday into Friday night, though other manner of
frozen precipitation would be possible. As we`ve been saying, stay
tuned over the coming days as details come better into focus. Late week continues to be the time to watch regarding any potential
for impactful winter precipitation across the area. While model
consensus continues to favor the approach of a Gulf low Friday into
Friday night, substantial uncertainty regarding details remain at
this juncture. With the aforementioned cold airmass in place, a
southern track low pressure system would expose more of the forecast
area to potential winter precipitation, while a more northerly track
would shift the risk farther northward. 00Z GFS and ECMWF ensembles
do show a broad swath of 30-60+% probabilities of at least 1" of
snow across north Georgia, so this system will certainly bear
watching. Still, with this potential remaining 5-6 days out,
questions regarding the exact track and timing of this Gulf low and
the resultant ptype, amounts, et cetera will remain unanswered.
Given these uncertainties, frozen precip type was limited to snow
and rain/snow on Friday into Friday night, though other manner of
frozen precipitation would be possible. As we`ve been saying, stay
tuned over the coming days as details come better into focus.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m not dead on this one yet. Maybe it’s because I’m down bad to the point that I would take a slop storm, but imho we still got time to either gain more confluence to our Ne or lose it, we haven’t really had a -NAO to go along with our setups recently that accompany a 50/50 low, that’s really what’s making me hold out hope here is that feature. That feature did make the overnight EPS look so much better
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Even with the most amped solutions possible... there's going to be a period of heavy snow on the front end when we saturate. And I'm having to reach way back in my event history notes... but these type front end set ups overproduce here. And all that is assuming we're just having to rely on the front end thump for snow... we're still in the game for all snow with better trends.
 
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