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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Myfrotho704_ said:
@ILMRoss View attachment 159763
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on one hand, raging WAA on top of a wedge is classic ice. on the other hand the max temp in the column looks to be like 2-3 degrees C and may not be enough to stop the refreeze into sleet. all i'll say is, even in classic ice situations, both the width of the ice corridor and the ice max seem to be smaller than what models suggest, often by a large degree in my experience
 
The biggest thing in my opinion is we keep trending to a slower and deeper 50/50 like is being shown. Even with a more amped wave we can keep heights suppressed across the southeast and elevated over the Great Lakes which is how you raise pressures and instill CAD. Now that also means we probably get a Jan 2022 redux of front end FGEN snow before the transition over to ZR/Sleet vs an all snow event but beggars can’t be choosers at this point.
 
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Jan 08 2025 - 12Z Sun Jan 12 2025


...However meanwhile, there remains an uncertain signal for extent of south-central U.S. rain/winter precipitation development to monitor that leads into a potentially stormy/wintry pattern out through the South and East Caost/western Atlantic to monitor heading into/through next weekend as guidance is having trouble with progressions and potential interactions of main systems within separated northern and southern stream flows.

...forecast spread and cycle to cycle continuity issues have significantly increased heading into and through next weekend in potentially more active flow as guidance grapples with major stream phasing and system timing/focus differences in a pattern with rapidly lowering predictability over time. This seems evident with the models, ensembles and machine learning guidance. Accordingly, WPC medium range products valid for this time frame were primarily derived from the National Blend of Models as adjusted mainly toward the ECMWF ensemble mean as this combination seemed to best maintain WPC continuity and reasonings pending upcoming stabilization of a more common guidance signal. The latest 00 UTC guidance cycle does not seem to yet provide this.
 
fb6e7ecc59d16fd5a218f8f89fd738ab.jpg

WPC’s morning discussion


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Ethan80963 said:
Yeah looks like temps are only marginal for a very small time (here at least) before going back below freezing. You got a guess on where you think this will land?
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If I was betting man, I’d bet we got the more mix/amped miller Bish hybrid route. But I would cash out with that AIFS run. that’s some legit 2m cold during the height of the storm
 
Avalanche said:
So the surface temps would be below freezing if the 850’s went south on us? Would you think mostly sleet or fzrn then?
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Seems like the trend to a more phased system is encouraging heigher heights in SE Canada sandwiched between the plains trof and 50/50, which is giving us a new feed of cold via a weak area of descent to our N before the main stuff arrives, if we go that route it encourages a more fresher feed of cold with the tradeoff being more mixing given the processes of CAD. A flatter wave that’s more northern stream heavy is more snow with less warm nosing but 2M temps are just a little more marginal given a more northern stream dominated wave brings its own cooler air aloft but still with a more stale sfc given it cuts off that feed quicker.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Seems like the trend to a more phased system is encouraging heigher heights in SE Canada sandwiched between the plains trof and 50/50, which is giving us a new feed of cold via a weak area of descent to our N before the main stuff arrives, if we go that route it encourages a more fresher feed of cold with the tradeoff being more mixing given the processes of CAD. A flatter wave that’s more northern stream heavy is more snow with less warm nosing but 2M temps are just a little more marginal given a more northern stream dominated wave brings its own cooler air aloft but still with a more stale sfc given it cuts off that feed quicker.
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This might be a nowcast when it’s in the mid-south for us?
 
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