rburrel2
Member
00z ukmet looks great... partial phase with a surface low in the northern gulf/coastline at hr 144... 850mb temps running west/east pretty far south.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Why is there a min east of the Apps? Asking for a friend.
It's not downsloping, so I assume it must be a moisture transport thing. I don't have the pretty maps yet.
It's not downsloping, so I assume it must be a moisture transport thing. I don't have the pretty maps yet.
iGRXY
Member
Tbh I think there would be higher totals as returns on that run were legit.
Still have a signal, collect the W’s while we have them. I love seeing another major model run showing the @SD idea with the vorts. Long way from the finish line.
The fun (read: nauseating) thing about all of this is each day increases the stakes. Down runs in the bottom of the ninth. Can’t win it with one swing of the bat, so let’s just get runners on base
The fun (read: nauseating) thing about all of this is each day increases the stakes. Down runs in the bottom of the ninth. Can’t win it with one swing of the bat, so let’s just get runners on base
The GFS did almost exactly what I'm looking for (me, not everyone). It not only dropped the C Plains wave down out ahead of the baja wave, it did 2 other things very well...1) it sent the base of the wave forcefully south into Oklahoma, and 2) it dropped the wave down positive tilt - if more neutral tilt, it would have been warmer out ahead of it. As we've said, drop it down forcefully into OK in positive tilt, then jerk it neutral late
Speaking of the UKMET. Snow Mean trend on the 18Z run of the MOGREPS-G (UKMET Ensembles).
Last edited:
NCSNOW
Member
Canadian is almost 72 hours latter with storm, like Monday week. Got Hog tied along the way an fumbled allover itself
i still think we can do betterThe GFS did almost exactly what I'm looking for (me, not everyone). It not only dropped the C Plains wave down out ahead of the baja wave, it did 2 other things very well...1) it sent the base of the wave forcefully south into Oklahoma, and 2) it dropped the wave down positive tilt - if more neutral tilt, it would have been warmer out ahead of it. As we've said, drop it down forcefully into OK in positive tilt, then jerk it neutral late
this is very funny to me. this is seriously the low? the synoptics are nonexistent. most of the snow has fallen by now. almost all the precip is basically from qpf nuke shrapnel experiencing isentropic upglide. i do see your point but think there's room for more digging and to go negative tilt a little quicker. lots of potential left
iGRXY
Member
CMC is late and my precip panels are stuck at 171 with moisture moving into north Georgia but temp profile from 2m to 700mb are loaded and it stayed below freezing. Whatever precip comes across is going to be frozen
Nerman
Member
It's less than a week Stevo. GFS had snow breaking out in Atlanta at 135 hours!
rburrel2
Member
It is downsloping. Winds out of the west or wsw at 900-925mb.
WPC has generally been considering the CMC an outlier over the past couple days.....rightfully so, as it has indeed been an outlier
RDUHeatIsland
Member
Great timing for NC on that run too. Rates on the lighter side but precip comes in right around sunset so we get maximum stickage
iGRXY
Member
CMC is a hit just a day and half later
Yes, I hear ya....the last piece would be for it to even go negative at the base of the trough.....but that adds more winners and losers. Farther south you are, the more you should like sliders that don't press the warmth back to the NW as much
iGRXY
Member
Cmc
iGRXY
Member
Also where it’s showing sleet in the upstate (at least in my backyard) that’s all snow. Checked the sounding and it’s a solid snow sounding
Stormlover
Member
I ain't mad...
Gefs looks like it’s gonna follow 
profile is all westerlies because this storm is running on no synoptics and all vibes
kind of funny to have a snowstorm with everyone having a wind from the west
rburrel2
Member
This GEFS run is gonna be legendary...
With this scenario, leaving that baja low cutoff and left behind would give us another plausible opportunity in the following days. That energy would have to slide east at some point and most likely on the same latitude. Northern stream energy continues to dive south as that thing just marinates. I love to get my cart ahead of my horse.
NCSNOW
Member
NCSNOW
Member
gfs bombs our storm out to 946mb a day and a half later
Ukie looking good too, what a time to come back and look at these model runs again..... much better 0z suite thus far. Now let's see if Dr. no says yes in a bit
Post dem vort maps
That would indeed be a trip Jimmy if the baja wave came out as storm 2 lol. Would harken back to the double barrel storms in Jan 1982 (1st one was the OG Atlanta Snowjam storm)
I ain't mad....
Eh it makes sense, low-mid level FGEN and WAA and the snow right above FGEN band/WAA. Can see the Lee side screw job though
0z GEFS very similar to 18z GEFS. For western areas.
You know we’re getting better when we’re finding different options for snow instead of a driving rainstorm
I was thinking same thing, this a great sign, in a way it's like having ensembles coming to the same ends with different means to get there.... it's a good thing
UNCSC
Member
Still cautiously optimistic after a good 0z suites last night that went to junk in the morning. If 6z holds, we are cooking with grease.
