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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Deltadog03 said:
Webberweather53 said:
Deltadog03 said:
it appears the euro is slower bring precipitation in here.  doesn't really get here until after midnight sat am...all others are showing friday afternoon.  I think the euro is only have a little overrunning precipitation back toward TN and northern ms and al....euro really doesn't push much of that, but really starts to crank it once the low gets going.  Still some big questions on what is going to happen.  GFS builds in a high and delivers more cold down before hand, plus flatter so the cold can push.  EURO starts that, but since its stronger overall, it starts tilting everything from NE to SW and the cold push stops until the low gets going.  By that time, its almost game over for all outside of NGA MTNS, upstate and NC.....just how I see it right now.

I agree Chris, i suspect the slower solution on the euro is one likely reason why it was a tad colder across the SE US, allowed the oncoming arctic airmass to settle in a bit more

ya, agreed....I am still torn on the slower solution vs faster one.  VERY tough call.  I favor the euro because its the euro...however, the GFS is better in progressive patterns.  with a more amped solution, and once that flow starts to tilt, if your not on the cold side, your likely not going to get much snow.  with a flatter gfs like solution the cold can push, but it will shut yall out somewhat in NC (I mean, it still snows, just not like the euro showing) since we won't have a storm really trying to crank and get close to the coast for yall.

I definitely am as well, more torn now in seeing the CMC/ECMWF/UKMET look just a hair flatter, but in the short range the vort max in the west is amplifying a bit more, and that could eventually offset some of the flattening we've seen in those models of late. I think somewhere between the I-95 and I-85 corridors in NC is sitting pretty atm...
 
SREF Member MBP4 gives CHA 9 inches! Grasping at straws... lol...
 
@webberweather53 what are your thoughts on BHM to ATL area?
 
Webber, are you confident that areas north and northeast of ATL will at least see some flurries ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Webber, are you confident that areas north and northeast of ATL will at least see some flurries ?

Not Webber, but yes
 
ForsythSnow said:
Xtreme weather said:
Rather have no watches/advisory/warnings best winter precip....vs them and get nothing lol

I think that is what caused the nightmare in 2014 for Atlanta. Lack of preparedness and over conservative views on snow caused people to be stuck in traffic for excessive amounts of times and also had kids stuck in school overnight.

Goes to show just how fickle and how little skill we have in dealing with wintry events in the Deep South who knew .10 or less of precip would have caused such major issues. Lesson learned from that event was the accretion process that was experienced in AL and GA during that event. BMX will probably go with a watch this afternoon or evening and if nec. Upgrade to WWA tomorrow sometime.
 
HixsonWX said:
SREF Member MBP4 gives CHA 9 inches! Grasping at straws... lol...

I will pay whatever is needed for this outcome...
 
SoutheastRidge said:
ForsythSnow said:
SoutheastRidge said:
ForsythSnow said:
FFC upped my accumulation to 2.1" from 0.7" earlier. I think they are growing in confidence, but they haven't updated their AFD yet. Obviously amounts and the overall forecast can change, but it's just an observation of the forecast.

Did you get that from a map they put out ?

I clicked on my area off the website and looked in the hourly forecast. The window for greatest snow ATM is from 7pm Friday to 1pm Saturday.
Shows 2.1" here also. I would take 2" and be happy until next winter.
Same for me two miles west of PDK
 
Webberweather53 said:
Deltadog03 said:
Webberweather53 said:
Deltadog03 said:
it appears the euro is slower bring precipitation in here.  doesn't really get here until after midnight sat am...all others are showing friday afternoon.  I think the euro is only have a little overrunning precipitation back toward TN and northern ms and al....euro really doesn't push much of that, but really starts to crank it once the low gets going.  Still some big questions on what is going to happen.  GFS builds in a high and delivers more cold down before hand, plus flatter so the cold can push.  EURO starts that, but since its stronger overall, it starts tilting everything from NE to SW and the cold push stops until the low gets going.  By that time, its almost game over for all outside of NGA MTNS, upstate and NC.....just how I see it right now.

I agree Chris, i suspect the slower solution on the euro is one likely reason why it was a tad colder across the SE US, allowed the oncoming arctic airmass to settle in a bit more

ya, agreed....I am still torn on the slower solution vs faster one.  VERY tough call.  I favor the euro because its the euro...however, the GFS is better in progressive patterns.  with a more amped solution, and once that flow starts to tilt, if your not on the cold side, your likely not going to get much snow.  with a flatter gfs like solution the cold can push, but it will shut yall out somewhat in NC (I mean, it still snows, just not like the euro showing) since we won't have a storm really trying to crank and get close to the coast for yall.

I definitely am as well, more torn now in seeing the CMC/ECMWF/UKMET look just a hair flatter, but in the short range the vort max in the west is amplifying a bit more, and that could eventually offset some of the flattening we've seen in those models of late. I think somewhere between the I-95 and I-85 corridors in NC is sitting pretty atm...

I would agree with that...if there is any delay in the precipitation getting here that would be great as the cold can push in more....EURO was colder this run for sure...same with the GFS...
 
For the Marietta, GA, area, does 70% chance for 1"+ and 20% chance for 3"+ sound reasonable as of now? Any opinions?
 
@ SER & rhart

It's probably a pretty good bet if your at or NE of ATL near I-85 that you'll at least see a trace of snow, inch or two certainly a reasonable possibility esp the further NE you go towards Greenville-Spartanburg...
 
I think somewhere between the I-95 and I-85 corridors in NC is sitting pretty atm...

Hopefully along US 1.  :D
 
Thanks Eric. Personally, I am very torn here around Columbia, SC. There's going to be a dividing line somewhere close from the data I have looked at. Selfishly hoping for a slower onset of precipitation, weaker.
 
Not looking worth a flip for northwest AL. Looking for a northwest trend that doesn't seem to be coming.
 
GaWx said:
For the Marietta, GA, area, does 70% chance for 1"+ and 20% chance for 3"+ sound reasonable as of now? Any opinions?


I would guess lower for both and include the possibility of under 1". Just based on what the models seem to be showing right now


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Here is a quote from Birmingham's Mickey Ferguson this morning: "A lot of questions to answer. Here's the first: Winter Storm? I don't think this system qualifies for a Winter Storm based on this morning's model data. Now, will we get some snow? That is a possibility. It could also be mixed with rain initially and then change over to light snow. But I just don't see the potential that we experienced with our last major winter storm event. But we said that last time, didn't we? Still it's my humble opinion that this will not be a major winter event."
 
Shawn said:
olhausen said:
While out to lunch I noticed the roads are now salted up here. Unfortunately I'll have plenty of cold air but not a lot of moisture up here. Still I've seen many times where I can squeeze out an inch with light snow showers off and on throughout the day do to my elevation being at almost 1,000 feet. I'll just have to hope that first wave over performs cause it doesn't look like the second wave is going to be anywhere near my area.

Hi, off topic but I am attempting to fix your avatar.  Seems it's not on the server anymore.  Do you know which one it was?
Thanks for pointing that out Shawn as I didn't even notice it. I reloaded it and it seems it's fixed now
 
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