Wow, you are a lot more conservative than a meteorologist in ATL on the other board (Cheeznado). He is 100% confident ATL will have accumulating snow with 1-4", with the higher totals north and northeast of atl.Webberweather53 said:
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Confidence for this event is increasing, with low to medium
confidence on location and accumulations, and medium confidence on
timing. Several of the 12z model runs are beginning to indicate
the potential for light winter precip to begin Friday morning
(potentially before sunrise) across generally north Georgia. Amounts
should be light. Rain chances will increase from the south
through the day Friday as surface low feature lifts out of the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Cold temperatures will continue to drop
across north Georgia, combining with this moisture to promote a
transition from rain to snow, generally Friday evening. A switch
over to all snow is expected overnight and early Saturday for
areas generally north of a line from Columbus to Macon to
Swainsboro. Currently, the greatest potential for accumulating
snow is along and north of this line, with the swath of highest
accumulations extending from the AL/GA line (along the I-20
corridor) through the metro Atlanta area and into northeast GA
(including the NE GA mountains). In this area, 2-3 inches of snow
are possible with isolated higher amounts. Expect this snow,
particularly across north GA to be dry in nature, and have opted
to go with a 8 to 1 ratio of water equivalent to snow. Future
forecast packages may opt for an even higher ratio, producing
additional snow accumulation. A few things to note: due to the
position of the moisture, far NW GA is only expected to see around
1 inch of accumulation or less, and in portions of central
Georgia where snow is forecast, extended periods of rain or
rain/snow mix would result in lower snowfall accumulations.
Vertical profiles are suggesting a thick saturated layer overnight
Friday into Saturday morning, all below 0C. The combination of
this deep moisture layer and the nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates
suggest that the environment may support bands of heavy
precipitation, at times convective in nature. As of now, have
kept precipitation wording to either rain or snow, but will need
to monitor how future models are handling the evolution of the
event.
confidence on location and accumulations, and medium confidence on
timing. Several of the 12z model runs are beginning to indicate
the potential for light winter precip to begin Friday morning
(potentially before sunrise) across generally north Georgia. Amounts
should be light. Rain chances will increase from the south
through the day Friday as surface low feature lifts out of the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Cold temperatures will continue to drop
across north Georgia, combining with this moisture to promote a
transition from rain to snow, generally Friday evening. A switch
over to all snow is expected overnight and early Saturday for
areas generally north of a line from Columbus to Macon to
Swainsboro. Currently, the greatest potential for accumulating
snow is along and north of this line, with the swath of highest
accumulations extending from the AL/GA line (along the I-20
corridor) through the metro Atlanta area and into northeast GA
(including the NE GA mountains). In this area, 2-3 inches of snow
are possible with isolated higher amounts. Expect this snow,
particularly across north GA to be dry in nature, and have opted
to go with a 8 to 1 ratio of water equivalent to snow. Future
forecast packages may opt for an even higher ratio, producing
additional snow accumulation. A few things to note: due to the
position of the moisture, far NW GA is only expected to see around
1 inch of accumulation or less, and in portions of central
Georgia where snow is forecast, extended periods of rain or
rain/snow mix would result in lower snowfall accumulations.
Vertical profiles are suggesting a thick saturated layer overnight
Friday into Saturday morning, all below 0C. The combination of
this deep moisture layer and the nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates
suggest that the environment may support bands of heavy
precipitation, at times convective in nature. As of now, have
kept precipitation wording to either rain or snow, but will need
to monitor how future models are handling the evolution of the
event.
SoutheastRidge said:
I wouldn't say that but I'm definitely thinking somewhere along the lines of 1-3" ish. It probably sounded like I was being much more conservative there, so pardon me for the misconstrued connotation
For all new members in here, once again welcome. Just to let you know some of us has been on here for a long time and are willing to answer any Questions you may have about weather or this potential winter storm. There are many on here who is very knowledgeable about westher, particularly 3 guys that I give credit too, 3 guys that mentor me from the start, when I started this forum years ago. SD, Storm5, Delta. These guys are the pros, please respect them as they will guide you through your learning.
ATLWxFan said:
Thanks. You obviously don't trust the GFS solution. I had 30% chance of under one inch at Marietta. Maybe it is really closer to 50%. Maybe 10% chance for 3"+ is more reflective of the model consensus.