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our problem is the trough is really flat as it approaches us. we would want /need it to sharpen sooner vs what's being shown like some of the gefs membees have to really see a bigger surge of moisture. at this point I would give that a 1 percent chance of happening . so we have to ride or die with how far north the precip makes itTouchet said:
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Xtreme weather said:
I think that is what caused the nightmare in 2014 for Atlanta. Lack of preparedness and over conservative views on snow caused people to be stuck in traffic for excessive amounts of times and also had kids stuck in school overnight.
it appears the euro is slower bring precipitation in here. doesn't really get here until after midnight sat am...all others are showing friday afternoon. I think the euro is only have a little overrunning precipitation back toward TN and northern ms and al....euro really doesn't push much of that, but really starts to crank it once the low gets going. Still some big questions on what is going to happen. GFS builds in a high and delivers more cold down before hand, plus flatter so the cold can push. EURO starts that, but since its stronger overall, it starts tilting everything from NE to SW and the cold push stops until the low gets going. By that time, its almost game over for all outside of NGA MTNS, upstate and NC.....just how I see it right now.
Deltadog03 said:
I agree Chris, i suspect the slower solution on the euro is one likely reason why it was a tad colder across the SE US, allowed the oncoming arctic airmass to settle in a bit more
Storm5 said:
This x1000. Trust me WWA's and WSW's don't mean snow. I've been under them many times and seen nothing. Same thing always happens, people will freak because their not under one. It's pretty funny.
FFC upped my accumulation to 2.1" from 0.7" earlier. I think they are growing in confidence, but they haven't updated their AFD yet. Obviously amounts and the overall forecast can change, but it's just an observation of the forecast.
Webberweather53 said:
ya, agreed....I am still torn on the slower solution vs faster one. VERY tough call. I favor the euro because its the euro...however, the GFS is better in progressive patterns. with a more amped solution, and once that flow starts to tilt, if your not on the cold side, your likely not going to get much snow. with a flatter gfs like solution the cold can push, but it will shut yall out somewhat in NC (I mean, it still snows, just not like the euro showing) since we won't have a storm really trying to crank and get close to the coast for yall.
SoutheastRidge said:
I clicked on my area off the website and looked in the hourly forecast. The window for greatest snow ATM is from 7pm Friday to 1pm Saturday.
Also, looks like widespread 2" even down to Hartsfield-Jackson.
Shawn said:
I think so, the models have had more than enough time to adjust for the first northern stream system over central-southwestern Canada, overall guidance has trended a bit slower with our shortwave currently sitting in the vicinity of northern California and Oregon. This should allow for the arctic frontal boundary to settle just a tad further to the south (hence colder) than where we were yesterday, which is good news for I-20, obviously it's still a close call in the Atlanta-Augusta-Columbia corridor. Aside from mesoscale biases wrt GOM convection and isentropic lifting over the SE US, Another large-scale synoptic issue those in Georgia, the Carolinas and even Virginia likely have to face at some pt is how guidance handles the 2nd shortwave that will arrive onto the continent on Thu. I think given how guidance has trended with that system (slower, deeper, further southwest), this has a shot to come up the coast a little more than modeled if these trends continue, however I think we're finally starting to settle in on a decent solution here and a compromise between the ECMWF and GFS camps seems most likely...