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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Im worried about Temps exclusively at this point. Moisture will be there. Very nervous about temps
 
SnowFlowXXL said:
Im worried about Temps exclusively at this point. Moisture will be there.  Very nervous about temps

How are you so confident that moisture will be there? If the Euro is right much of NW GA may not get any precip. I'm way more concerned with moisture than temps.
 
Looking forward to 18z !! Come on GFS you can do it!!


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NorthGaWinter2 said:
ForsythSnow said:
Looking at the 12Z suite, I believe that someone will have some form of advisory by tomorrow evening at the very latest, if this trend continues.

I think Forsyth will get a WSWatch

I think Friday's daytime temps will be very important for us. With potentially such limited QPF, we really need every bit of precip that falls to be in the frozen form.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Storm5 said:
why is everyone worried about when advisories and or watches will be issued lol

I would be much more worried  about precip and temperatures

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because if a watch or advisory is issued then that gives people more confidence that something will happen. If they wait until the last minute to issue one, then it makes people wonder if there's any confidence in what may happen.
more confidence? ?? you know how many times advisories and watches bust?

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Storm5 said:
why is everyone worried about when advisories and or watches will be issued lol

I would be much more worried  about precip and temperatures

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FOR SERIOUS.  It ain't like the energy is gonna distribute more QPF across areas that have a WSWatch or WSWarning first.  Ain't no such thing as #WSWprivledge.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Storm5 said:
why is everyone worried about when advisories and or watches will be issued lol

I would be much more worried  about precip and temperatures

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because if a watch or advisory is issued then that gives people more confidence that something will happen.

Also North Georgia seems to in almost every scenario get some form of snow, as all the 12Z models, except maybe the CMC, say we could get a decent amount. The trends look like North Georgia through North Carolina are the bests spots ATM for snowfall. Yes, things can change, but temps look okay for North Georgia. Precip is close enough as well.
 
NorthGaWinter2 said:
Storm5 said:
why is everyone worried about when advisories and or watches will be issued lol

I would be much more worried  about precip and temperatures

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Worried about both lol. But we love warnings
lol I hear ya

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SoutheastRidge said:
SnowFlowXXL said:
Im worried about Temps exclusively at this point. Moisture will be there.  Very nervous about temps

How are you so confident that moisture will be there? If the Euro is right much of NW GA may not get any precip. I'm way more concerned with moisture than temps.

Atlanta and east of Atlanta is going to be fine moisture wise.
 
I know the set up and all, I'm just afraid that SW flow will erode away the cold. Living in Bham, I've seen too many times where temperatures end up being very marginal, and we end up with mixed precipitation that melts immediately. I guess being at night helps with that. I am encouraged that the trend right now is south of us. Usually we are in the bullseye and it moves further north.

I don't expect to see much from this. It will most likely rain for a bit, then change over quickly to give a dusting right before it exits. That has been the pattern with these events. Remember last year, we had something similar to this, and it ended up switching back and forth between rain and snow, ending with a dusting. We were supposed to have a couple of inches of snow that day, and it was a complete bust.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
SnowFlowXXL said:
Im worried about Temps exclusively at this point. Moisture will be there.  Very nervous about temps

How are you so confident that moisture will be there? If the Euro is right much of NW GA may not get any precip. I'm way more concerned with moisture than temps.

you don't live in NW GA do you?? lol and the moisture is trending more NW.
 
Storm5 said:
SoutheastRidge said:
Storm5 said:
why is everyone worried about when advisories and or watches will be issued lol

I would be much more worried  about precip and temperatures

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

because if a watch or advisory is issued then that gives people more confidence that something will happen. If they wait until the last minute to issue one, then it makes people wonder if there's any confidence in what may happen.
more confidence? ?? you know how many times advisories and watches bust?  

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It happens all the time. But meteorologists don't issue a watch or advisory unless they are confident something may happen.
 
SnowFlowXXL said:
SoutheastRidge said:
SnowFlowXXL said:
Im worried about Temps exclusively at this point. Moisture will be there.  Very nervous about temps

How are you so confident that moisture will be there? If the Euro is right much of NW GA may not get any precip. I'm way more concerned with moisture than temps.

you don't live in NW GA do you?? lol and the moisture is trending more NW.

No I don't but I don't like to see a cutoff in the precip so close by. I want to see moisture at least to Chattanooga and even north of that in order to feel a little more comfortable.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
SnowFlowXXL said:
Im worried about Temps exclusively at this point. Moisture will be there.  Very nervous about temps

How are you so confident that moisture will be there? If the Euro is right much of NW GA may not get any precip. I'm way more concerned with moisture than temps.

Same here. I think Rome-Gainesville Nward will have adequate temps, but precip is the only thing in question.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
The GFS hasn't consistently shown the same outcome but it has consistently shown the same idea and now that I've taken a brief look at the other models, those show the same idea too. There are a few tweaks but the same idea is there on the models I can read (the only one I can't is the Euro as I don't pay for it).

The GFS shows the disturbance in the west just sitting there until Thursday and then instead of it really fully coming east, a piece of it breaks off and it starts interacting with a piece of energy in the GOM. It eventually converges into a good looking system but it's a little stringy at first.

I wonder what would happen if the disturbance in the west was able to fully come east and ended up phasing with the disturbance we're seeing in the GOM?

Hmmm...interesting question.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
SoutheastRidge said:
SnowFlowXXL said:
Im worried about Temps exclusively at this point. Moisture will be there.  Very nervous about temps

How are you so confident that moisture will be there? If the Euro is right much of NW GA may not get any precip. I'm way more concerned with moisture than temps.

Atlanta and east of Atlanta is going to be fine moisture wise.
Yeah but i'm talking areas north and northeast of Atlanta ( Dahlonega and Gainesville). I would rather be in Gwinett right now than in Lumpkin.
 
While out to lunch I noticed the roads are now salted up here. Unfortunately I'll have plenty of cold air but not a lot of moisture up here. Still I've seen many times where I can squeeze out an inch with light snow showers off and on throughout the day do to my elevation being at almost 1,000 feet. I'll just have to hope that first wave over performs cause it doesn't look like the second wave is going to be anywhere near my area.
 
Rather have no watches/advisory/warnings best winter precip....vs them and get nothing lol
 
Im going to be in the South Metro for this event so as you can see we have different problems
 
SE Ridge i think you are going to be in the sweet spot when all is said and done
 
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