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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

What happened to the CAD high? Is that no longer in play?
 
bouncycorn said:
So there's more vorticity interaction but the system is further west & more separated. Could be a little slower this run.

Which would be good for the cold push i would assume
 
Xtreme weather said:
Deltadog03 said:
ATLWxFan said:
Deltadog03 said:
I wish the nam had a clue. Lol

I thought the NAM was more reliable at this range?


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It's getting there

You out of WY yet...been awhile lol

Oh ya. I'm in GA. Been hhere for almost 5 years now. Left WY back in March 2012
 
No snow for you said:
I am getting concerned about I-85 and the cold not being able to make it over the mountains in time. Some of the models have hinted at this and since this is a Non CAD situation and the cold is coming from West to East, it normally takes longer for the cold to get to the CAD areas, if at all. Unless we see that High Pressure pop back up again in the NE, places like GSP could have some mixing issues or just a cold rain.

Ive been talking temps all along. Very concerned about cold rain being final outcome
 
Storm5 said:
bouncycorn said:
And now it's interacting a little more but still stronger vort.
not surprised . we see vorts verify stronger all the time . Hopefully it's the trend

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Agreed. Looks a bit better and slower so far
 
Pulling for good trends today nothing but good vibes, Today it all comes together for a good SE winter storm
 
This new NAM run is looking pretty good through 26hrs. The shortwave is healthy and separated and it's gaining somewhat of a tilt already. But it's the NAM, no telling what it'll do next.
 
If you are in AL, you want to see the s/w hold together as much as possible early. This will allow for a better chance of a slp forming in the Gulf sooner and further north.
 
SnowFlowXXL said:
No snow for you said:
I am getting concerned about I-85 and the cold not being able to make it over the mountains in time. Some of the models have hinted at this and since this is a Non CAD situation and the cold is coming from West to East, it normally takes longer for the cold to get to the CAD areas, if at all. Unless we see that High Pressure pop back up again in the NE, places like GSP could have some mixing issues or just a cold rain.

Ive been talking temps all along. Very concerned about cold rain being final outcome

I think ATL may have a better temp profile than GSP if the mountains get in the way. Remember, it is always tough for ATL to score any winter weather.
 
No snow for you said:
SnowFlowXXL said:
No snow for you said:
I am getting concerned about I-85 and the cold not being able to make it over the mountains in time. Some of the models have hinted at this and since this is a Non CAD situation and the cold is coming from West to East, it normally takes longer for the cold to get to the CAD areas, if at all. Unless we see that High Pressure pop back up again in the NE, places like GSP could have some mixing issues or just a cold rain.

Ive been talking temps all along. Very concerned about cold rain being final outcome

I think ATL may have a better temp profile than GSP if the mountains get in the way. Remember, it is always tough for ATL to score any winter weather.
Live here 20 years, I know. Never seen more than 4 inches of snow
 
06z NAM

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12z NAM

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Definitely more separation...
 
by hr33 we are seeing a very nice trend away from interaction....PLUS the cold front is pushing south of I-40 in TN
 
more tilt this time, positive trends so far
 
Deltadog03 said:
by hr33 we are seeing a very nice trend away from interaction....PLUS the cold front is pushing south of I-40 in TN

please pass i 20 soon after that!
 
Panel watching this thing...just watching for more precp. and cold to all come together in next couple of frames
 
I would expect the NAM to end up similar to the 6z GFS. I dont think you are going to get the farther NW look of the non US models but I could be wrong
 
IF the idea of a central FL crossing were to turn out to be correct, climo of these tracks says that for ATL and vicinity it would be highly improbable that the bulk of any precip not be wintry meaning a cold rain dominating shouldn't occur. Now, if the low ends up further north and there's also not sufficient enough high pressure near the mid Atlantic coast, then cold rain becomes more of a possibility. One thing to note is that there is no -AO nor -NAO. The climo of central FL tracks says a -AO/-NAO is most likely to be associated with it. With those not forecasted to be there on 1/7 (~neutral at best) and with almost all other models being further north, a trend toward a further north track would seem likely. Otoh, the GFS has wavered very little for a number of runs, the 0Z GFS para was even further south (the extremely rare S FL track), and the 2/1973 great snowstorm low that crossed central FL was accompanied by a solid +AO/+NAO. So, it wouldn't be a big surprise if the central FL track were to hold. I'm leaning toward a north FL track as of this moment. Let's see what the 12Z consensus suggests.
 
06z NAM

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12z NAM

nam_namer_036_500_vort_ht.gif


Keep it up NAM....
 
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