Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[$alt]

What happened to the CAD high? Is that no longer in play?

 

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So there's more vorticity interaction but the system is further west & more separated. Could be a little slower this run.

Which would be good for the cold push i would assume

 

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I wish the nam had a clue. Lol

I thought the NAM was more reliable at this range?


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It's getting there

You out of WY yet...been awhile lol

Oh ya. I'm in GA. Been hhere for almost 5 years now. Left WY back in March 2012

 

[$alt]

I am getting concerned about I-85 and the cold not being able to make it over the mountains in time. Some of the models have hinted at this and since this is a Non CAD situation and the cold is coming from West to East, it normally takes longer for the cold to get to the CAD areas, if at all. Unless we see that High Pressure pop back up again in the NE, places like GSP could have some mixing issues or just a cold rain.

Ive been talking temps all along. Very concerned about cold rain being final outcome

 

[$alt]

And now it's interacting a little more but still stronger vort.

not surprised . we see vorts verify stronger all the time . Hopefully it's the trend

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Agreed. Looks a bit better and slower so far

 

[$alt]

Pulling for good trends today nothing but good vibes, Today it all comes together for a good SE winter storm

 

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This new NAM run is looking pretty good through 26hrs. The shortwave is healthy and separated and it's gaining somewhat of a tilt already. But it's the NAM, no telling what it'll do next.

 

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If you are in AL, you want to see the s/w hold together as much as possible early. This will allow for a better chance of a slp forming in the Gulf sooner and further north.

 

[$alt]

I am getting concerned about I-85 and the cold not being able to make it over the mountains in time. Some of the models have hinted at this and since this is a Non CAD situation and the cold is coming from West to East, it normally takes longer for the cold to get to the CAD areas, if at all. Unless we see that High Pressure pop back up again in the NE, places like GSP could have some mixing issues or just a cold rain.

Ive been talking temps all along. Very concerned about cold rain being final outcome

I think ATL may have a better temp profile than GSP if the mountains get in the way. Remember, it is always tough for ATL to score any winter weather.

 

[$alt]

I am getting concerned about I-85 and the cold not being able to make it over the mountains in time. Some of the models have hinted at this and since this is a Non CAD situation and the cold is coming from West to East, it normally takes longer for the cold to get to the CAD areas, if at all. Unless we see that High Pressure pop back up again in the NE, places like GSP could have some mixing issues or just a cold rain.

Ive been talking temps all along. Very concerned about cold rain being final outcome

I think ATL may have a better temp profile than GSP if the mountains get in the way. Remember, it is always tough for ATL to score any winter weather.

Live here 20 years, I know. Never seen more than 4 inches of snow

 

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06z NAM

12z NAM

Definitely more separation...

 

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by hr33 we are seeing a very nice trend away from interaction....PLUS the cold front is pushing south of I-40 in TN

 

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Bit juicer

 

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Tick colder so far

 

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more tilt this time, positive trends so far

 

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by hr33 we are seeing a very nice trend away from interaction....PLUS the cold front is pushing south of I-40 in TN

please pass i 20 soon after that!

 

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Panel watching this thing...just watching for more precp. and cold to all come together in next couple of frames

 

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I would expect the NAM to end up similar to the 6z GFS. I dont think you are going to get the farther NW look of the non US models but I could be wrong

 

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IF the idea of a central FL crossing were to turn out to be correct, climo of these tracks says that for ATL and vicinity it would be highly improbable that the bulk of any precip not be wintry meaning a cold rain dominating shouldn't occur. Now, if the low ends up further north and there's also not sufficient enough high pressure near the mid Atlantic coast, then cold rain becomes more of a possibility. One thing to note is that there is no -AO nor -NAO. The climo of central FL tracks says a -AO/-NAO is most likely to be associated with it. With those not forecasted to be there on 1/7 (~neutral at best) and with almost all other models being further north, a trend toward a further north track would seem likely. Otoh, the GFS has wavered very little for a number of runs, the 0Z GFS para was even further south (the extremely rare S FL track), and the 2/1973 great snowstorm low that crossed central FL was accompanied by a solid +AO/+NAO. So, it wouldn't be a big surprise if the central FL track were to hold. I'm leaning toward a north FL track as of this moment. Let's see what the 12Z consensus suggests.

 

[$alt]

06z NAM

12z NAM

Keep it up NAM....