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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Storm5 said:
12z eps
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00z
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MUCH better, that makes better since.

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Going to stick with yesterday thinking hwy 278 south better shot at accumulating sleet and snow in Alabama with area east of I-65 benefiting from some wrap around. Amounts tricky but will also stay with 1" amounts generally speaking. Probably some type of banding possible but just exactly where still crap shot gut says axis from Dekalb Bibb to Chambers zone stands the better shot. That said scattered light snow possible for most of north and central AL Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.
 
Xtreme weather said:
Going to stick with yesterday thinking hwy 278 south better shot at accumulating sleet and snow in Alabama with area east of I-65 benefiting from some wrap around. Amounts tricky but will also stay with 1" amounts generally speaking. Probably some type of banding possible but just exactly where still crap shot gut says axis from Dekalb Bibb to Chambers zone stands the better shot. That said scattered light snow possible for most of north and central AL Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.
That sounds very reasonable xtreme.
 
Deltadog03 said:
Xtreme weather said:
Going to stick with yesterday thinking hwy 278 south better shot at accumulating sleet and snow in Alabama with area east of I-65 benefiting from some wrap around. Amounts tricky but will also stay with 1" amounts generally speaking. Probably some type of banding possible but just exactly where still crap shot gut says axis from Dekalb Bibb to Chambers zone stands the better shot. That said scattered light snow possible for most of north and central AL Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.
That sounds very reasonable xtreme.

Hey Chris?
 
Delta, I gotta ask the lame, cliche question. Any chance the models are underestimating the cold?

Or is just a matter of the placement of the high?
 
So...Spann knows for sure we don't see over 1/2"? That's a pretty bold statement when several models show 2" imby. Ph well.
 
Its amazing to see the slow NW trend of the GFS. I went from near 0 to 1 to 3
 
Deltadog03 said:
DadOfJax said:
Spann says less than 1/2" for anyone in Alabama that does end up seeing snow....and he has that listed under "Things we know for sure".....wow!

. However models have backedoff much in the way of snow for yall. So I see why he made that general statement. I could see that happening as well. Models are starting to show a more late bloomer so that is possible.

unbelievable...well actually, not really.
 
Xtreme weather said:
Deltadog03 said:
Xtreme weather said:
Going to stick with yesterday thinking hwy 278 south better shot at accumulating sleet and snow in Alabama with area east of I-65 benefiting from some wrap around. Amounts tricky but will also stay with 1" amounts generally speaking. Probably some type of banding possible but just exactly where still crap shot gut says axis from Dekalb Bibb to Chambers zone stands the better shot. That said scattered light snow possible for most of north and central AL Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.
That sounds very reasonable xtreme.

Hey Chris?
Yes sir
 
RichardJacks said:
Deltadog03 said:
DadOfJax said:
Spann says less than 1/2" for anyone in Alabama that does end up seeing snow....and he has that listed under "Things we know for sure".....wow!

. However models have backedoff much in the way of snow for yall. So I see why he made that general statement. I could see that happening as well. Models are starting to show a more late bloomer so that is possible.

unbelievable...well actually, not really.

Lol ya no comment. Hahaha
 
Xtreme weather said:
Going to stick with yesterday thinking hwy 278 south better shot at accumulating sleet and snow in Alabama with area east of I-65 benefiting from some wrap around. Amounts tricky but will also stay with 1" amounts generally speaking. Probably some type of banding possible but just exactly where still crap shot gut says axis from Dekalb Bibb to Chambers zone stands the better shot. That said scattered light snow possible for most of north and central AL Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

Yay! A fellow Calhoun county person. Any chance Cheaha gets better snow chances in this situation?
 
FFC's take makes sense at this point. I think we see snow in Atlanta but no accumulation.


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RollTide18 said:
Delta, I gotta ask the lame, cliche question. Any chance the models are underestimating the cold?

Or is just a matter of the placement of the high?

Not lame at all. It's absolutely possible that they are under doing the cold.
 
Olaf said:
So...Spann knows for sure we don't see over 1/2"? That's a pretty bold statement when several models show 2" imby. Ph well.

Let's get it right 

From Spann
[font=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]*Be sure and check the blog later today for updates… please don’t work with old information as you make plans, especially if you are traveling. And, speaking of traveling, higher probabilities of over 3 inches of snow are east of Alabama, across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas (their snow comes Saturday)…[/font]
 
Olaf said:
Xtreme weather said:
Going to stick with yesterday thinking hwy 278 south better shot at accumulating sleet and snow in Alabama with area east of I-65 benefiting from some wrap around. Amounts tricky but will also stay with 1" amounts generally speaking. Probably some type of banding possible but just exactly where still crap shot gut says axis from Dekalb Bibb to Chambers zone stands the better shot. That said scattered light snow possible for most of north and central AL Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

Yay! A fellow Calhoun county person. Any chance Cheaha gets better snow chances in this situation?

If anywhere areas outlined earlier if qpf field is more robust than progged this is the area that could see higher amounts.
 
I went back and read it for myself...that's not exactly what he said.

Spann: IMPORTANT POINTS: Long time readers/viewers know I like to tell people what we know, and I don’t tell them what we don’t know. So… this is what we know this morning…
*Moisture over the northern half of the state will be pretty limited, so snow amounts, if any, will most likely be light, under 1/2 inch (if you see snow at all).
*There is some chance, we we see phasing between the two precipitation areas Friday night, a heavier strip of wintry precipitation could develop over Central Alabama, but there is no way now of knowing exactly where that happens. And, this could be more sleet and freezing rain than snow. Guidance from NOAA’s WPC hints freezing rain problems could develop Friday night along I-85 from Montgomery toward Opelika. Freezing rain is simply rain that falls with temperatures at or below 32 degrees at the surface.
*In terms of travel impact, light snow Friday morning could bring a few icy spots to North Alabama. But, the highest potential for icy travel issues should come Friday night with temperatures drop into the 20s over the northern half of the state.
*Sure, anything can happen, but this it NOT an analog to January 28, 2014 (snowmageddon). Snow was falling with temperatures near 20 degrees during that event; the ice accretion process on roads, as we have learned, is radically different with surface temperatures that cold. Temperatures will be in the 29-34 degree range Friday/Friday night. Yes, some icy travel is very possible, but it won’t be like the horrible day in January 2014.
 
Deltadog03 said:
RollTide18 said:
Delta, I gotta ask the lame, cliche question. Any chance the models are underestimating the cold?

Or is just a matter of the placement of the high?

Not lame at all. It's absolutely possible that they are under doing the cold.

Thanks! I realize this scenario seems to come up when dealing with Arctic Front/Shallow Cold Air
 
I hope we get some more "bad" runs with 1 to 2 inches.
 
EPS probability of over 1" snow
1ac1e782de0788379fce0647cbdcaca1.jpg



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