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Wintry 1/5-7 Winter Weather
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I still have the 12z GFS ice totals in my buffer. Here you go:
JQPublic
Member
What's the reason for the change? Stronger high?
NCSNOW
Member
Good timing. Something it always takes/boils down to and we usually whiff on.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I’m slowly but surely coming around to this system. I still have concerns.
weather bubba
Member
The GFS is showing a winter wonderland for a good chunk of the mid-south and North Carolina. Let's see if the Euro gets on board with this look during its next run.
NCSNOW
Member
12z Canadian. Came south with LP track as well, not as much as GFS. Trends
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NCSNOW
Member
12z UKMET still cuts hard. It has traded places with GFS from a couple days ago
Looks like the 2nd and 3rd wave stay suppressed on the GFS for now and goes out to sea.
iGRXY
Member
FRAM but honestly the western Carolinas probably accrue closer to the QPF estimate as temps were in the upper 20's.
Bigedd09
Member
Is there any support from the GEFS for this system?
Not out that far yet
rburrel2
Member
Verbatim, it would have been mostly sleet for the Upstate I think. Short range models are gonna love this setup if we can get it in range.
GEFS starting to come in for the Monday to Tuesday storm.
iGRXY
Member
GFS actually has snow soundings but the Canadian is all ZR all the way at least for my location.
Attachments
Gefs members so far with a big range in snow placement
NCSNOW
Member
Gefs will almost carbon copy op usually. When it doesnt, its a red flag
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iGRXY
Member
GEFS following it's OP. Faster S/W and more -NAO press further South.
NWMSGuy
Member
GEFS 12Z out to Hour 129:
It does have the higher snowfall mean up over central Virginia. Other models are showing this. Right now I would say central VA is the most favored with the upper south a close second. Two (three..) options right now.
Yep. Not really like the OP run at all. At least not for this 12z
Because with the continued south trends of the shortwave it has detached itself from that piece of TPV sliding southward, allowing ridging and confluence aloft to stay over the top of it as it moves eastward.
looks trapped at this point
iGRXY
Member
GoDuke
Member
Navgem is locked in. Consistent with a southern track.
-NAO is doing work as others have said. Let's see if the Euro starts picking up on this.
Mahomeless
Member
Going to be an Ohio Valley special!
More snow for NC in operational? Ensembles seem to have more zr
iGRXY
Member
Multiple members that are big on the Ice. Some still some snow also.
iGRXY
Member
Trying to figure out precip types this far out isn't smart. Just need to see that it has a storm signal and some kind of frozen showing up.
Same. Mount Rogers, Virginia and points north-east is what I’m thinking. Everything below looks like it’s teetering on mixing for NC mountains/foothills. Snow/sleet vs cold rain I don’t believe the ice maps at all. Still can be a good event esp in the CAD areas.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I’m kind of the opposite. I think the highest probability is ice in the CAD regions. Even the models showing a cutter still have ice there.
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NCSNOW
Member
The saving grace, is even if someone is mid 20s,gets all frzng rn, max they would get is 3/4 inch qpf. That will pop some limbs if it happened. But where you really get into major damage frzng rn, week + widespread power outages is north of .75 qpf.
Best way to get major damage off .75 qpf frozen is a quick limb glazer, follwed by 6 inches wet snow on top, as it will catch everything
iGRXY
Member
