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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

The GOAT of NC winter storm photos

GFS not backing down
That storm really was memorable .. people didn’t take it seriously and that snow stuck really quickly and also lasted much longer than initially thought .. now we’re just colder and don’t turn to sleet
 
You'd think it was the 80s again with such crazy shifts and expansions like that this close to an event.

But when s/w move across sparsely networked regions (*cough* Mexico mountains *cough *), this kinda gives validity to why so many winter events were "sneaky" suckers back in the day.

Temperatures running 1 to 2 degrees colder in the WWA around Charleston, Berkeley Counties at this time.

Most models have maintained the warmer trends of yesterday and I can’t find even one model now (ignoring the cold biased WRF) with more than a very tiny bit of ZR here in SAV. But as you said, the cold air in wedges is often underdone by most models. So, that remains the wild card. Will continue watching temperature trends to my NE. Plus your well inland area and 100 mile further NE area will probably end up 1-3 colder or so during precip than the coldest here while precip is falling. I see that temperature falls in NE SC/Coastal NC have either slowed or stopped for the time being with 32 in ILM, 33 in Florence, 34 in MYR, and 36 in CHS. Will they resume falling this afternoon, the crucial time imo?
 
FFC may issue WWAs for E GA.
000
FXUS62 KFFC 211513
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1013 AM EST Fri Jan 21 2022


...Update for wintry impacts updates...

.UPDATE...

As we move into the morning, we are seeing patchy areas of
freezing drizzle affect portions of north, northwest, and west
central Georgia, including portions of the Atlanta metro, causing
slick spots on roadways, especially on brides and overpasses.
Please use caution when driving in these areas. Temperatures are
expected to improve through the morning, but with cold air
continuing to push in from the north and thick low-level cloud
cover, several areas of North Georgia are expected to remain near
or below freezing for the entirety of the day.

In east central and southeast portions of the forecast area,
some morning model runs have indicated and increasing chance for
mixed wintry precip with the potential to cause minor impacts
tonight into Saturday morning. Some of these areas may be upgraded
to a Winter Weather Advisory this afternoon depending on model
trends throughout the rest of the morning.

PLease see the Special Weather Statements for more details.

Thiem

 
Greg Postal said on TWC its possible to see a bit more snow that what they are forecasting which was around 3-4 inches around Raleigh

Considering even the drier 12z GFS has CAE at 5.1 inches with ratios, I agree that this thing is surely going to do better up there; It just has to...
 
Most models have maintained the warmer trends of yesterday and I can’t find even one model now (ignoring the cold biased WRF) with more than a very tiny bit of ZR here in SAV. But as you said, the cold air in wedges is often underdone by most models. So, that remains the wild card. Will continue watching temperature trends to my NE. Plus your well inland area and 100 mile further NE area will probably end up 1-3 colder or so during precip than the coldest here while precip is falling. I see that temperature falls in NE SC/Coastal NC have either slowed or stopped for the time being with 32 in ILM, 33 in Florence, 34 in MYR, and 36 in CHS. Will they resume falling this afternoon, the crucial time imo?
Temperatures running slightly colder than most guidance. When precip resumes again later, I could imagine we'd continue to see further falls in daytime temps. We saw the first level off in Charleston from 9am to 10am (first non fall ob's since 1pm yesterday. However, here at the Creek, with no precip falling now, temps have dropped down to 34 here. (Which is 2 to as much as 4 degrees colder than various model guidance from Yesterday).
 
People not taking this storm seriously at all. Hurricanes game is tonight that means a flood of traffic around 6 all through Raleigh .. light to moderate snow falling and if everyone makes it to the game then by the time they leave you have thousands of cars leaving in 23 degree moderate snow on top of 2 inches already fallen .. good grief could spell trouble if this game isn’t canceledView attachment 109117
This is.... just bad. Moderate snow will be moving in by 7-8pm with temps in the upper 20s. A pretty careless tweet imo.
 
15z HRRR coming in

a945wY7.gif
 
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