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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Sun out here in Surry county, tells me dry air will be hard to overcome in a lot of areas in the NW part of the storm
 
CAE just updated..

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1128 AM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Recent model trends this morning have been consistently showing
a westward expansion of precipitation as it redevelops this
afternoon. Additionally, there is increasing concern about the
possibility of frontogenetic banding setting up from southwest
to northeast across the CWA. With a cold airmass in place,
model soundings have been suggesting more frozen precipitation
occurring further to the south and east than in the previous
forecast. With snowfall accumulations on the upswing, the
decision was made along with neighboring WFOs to upgrade the
Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning for
Chesterfield, Southern Lancaster, Kershaw and Lee Counties. For
these areas, around 2 inches of snowfall accumulation is
expected mainly from this evening and through the overnight
period. The Advisory was also expanded southward through much
of the CSRA counties, minus McCormick and Lincoln where lesser
impacts are expected.

Expect temperatures to fall this afternoon, with high
temperatures either having already occurred earlier today, or
are at their peak late this morning. There remains a chance for
some some light precipitation this morning and into the early
afternoon hours, mainly of the liquid variety. However, the best
chance for precipitation will be later in the day and evening,
when the ptype is more likely going to be a wintry mix and
capable of generating some hazardous conditions for the evening
commute period.

Ice accumulations expected between 0.1"-0.25" across the
eastern and southern Midlands, less than 0.1" elsewhere.
Snow/sleet accumulations will be highest over areas in the
Winter Storm Warning, with around 2" accumulation and isolated
higher amounts possible. Amounts then decrease to the south and
west, with around 1.5" through the Columbia metro and up to 1"
into the Augusta area through early Saturday morning.
Low temperatures tonight in the low to mid 20s, with warmest
values in the CSRA and coldest temperatures near the SC/NC
border.

Additional details with the afternoon package.
Click to expand...
 
Being right North of the mixing line is usually where there is stronger precipitation. I'm slightly away from CAE proper... but being right on that line can score big for people usually.. not just here but anywhere seeing that
 
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if RAH added Franklin, Wake, Johnston, and maybe even Harnett to the WSW in their afternoon package. I could also see them adding Davidson, Forsyth and Guilford to the WWA. We shall see.
 
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1135 AM Friday...

Update: After evaluation of new guidance, have expanded the winter
storm warning westward, with the warning now running roughly along
and southeast of a Rockingham-Raleigh-Roanoke Rapids line. New high
res guidance is suggestive of a band of heavier snow potential
across the Sandhills into the central/NE Coastal Plain and far SE
Piedmont, with the focus still on 7p-3a time frame. -GIH
 
packfan98 said:
Click to expand...

Yeah… I was just about to post that GSP has updated their forecast grids… they now have 1-2” over the current WWA area and even now around 1” for CLT itself. They mentioned at 10:45 they were waiting for all 12z guidance to come in before making a call on expanding advisory westward, but they were perplexed by the light snow that is breaking out in the Lee of the mountains in areas that only had 15% POP. It’s interesting that for CLT metro 2” in 8 hours is. WSW criteria so I wonder if they might pull the trigger on a warning for Cabarrus, Union, and Chester counties… it looks as if most models has 2”+ for the majority of those counties now
 
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