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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

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Someone with better maps fill us in... This is a pretty big difference at 72 hours
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol euro has a decent 1-2 inch snow across the north Charlotte area with the Arctic front itself so far
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That seems to still be a wild card… the HRRR has been hinting at it all day. We don’t typically get cold pushes coming in from that direction during precip, but when we do they always have very quick drops in temperature
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
One more trend like that and we are looking MUCH better. WAR flexed just enough to slow down the NS and allow the SS to catch up just a little.
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It’s crazy 1 more war trend like that and we get a big event for more areas but 2-3 more war trends like that, this thing is screwing us with a warm nose, very sensitive system
 
bouncycorn said:
Have to wonder if the recent global model chaos is due to the volcanic eruption late last week. Model scores have plummeted, esp the GFS. They’re highly dependent on aerosol calculations, cloud condensation nuclei, etc.
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That’s an interesting point. Also there have been a lot of commercial flights getting canceled lately… first due to the Covid spike and now the 5G concerns. These commercial flights are also gathering atmospheric info that goes to weather agencies around the world and is used to input data in computer models. When the pandemic started in 2020, models were volatile and had lower accuracy scores… there much fewer planes in the air at that time as well
 
bouncycorn said:
Have to wonder if the recent global model chaos is due to the volcanic eruption late last week. Model scores have plummeted, esp the GFS. They’re highly dependent on aerosol calculations, cloud condensation nuclei, etc.
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This post made me laugh so hard. Not because it's not a valid point; it is. It's just that I immediately thought of it this way: We've gotten so desperate with this system that we are digging in the geological event bucket to find hope!

If there's some merit to that idea, I hope it's contributory to model error now and not 36 hours ago when things looked great lol
 
KyloG said:
18z JMA…desperate times

Precip from 6z Friday until end of run.

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Oddly enough back before the 2/12/2010 storm, the JMA was one the first models to pick up on the NW trend and more expansive precip to the NW that gave all of SC and most of NC a significant snowfall
 
frank ocean said:
Y’all be careful rooting for this northwest trend that monkeys paw is going to curl hard and fast
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What we needed was for it to have been able to really phase and get captured and go nuts well offshore so it can throw plenty of moisture back east but be strong enough to crash 850's so there is no warm nose problem....
 
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