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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Rain Cold said:
This post made me laugh so hard. Not because it's not a valid point; it is. It's just that I immediately thought of it this way: We've gotten so desperate with this system that we are digging in the geological event bucket to find hope!

If there's some merit to that idea, I hope it's contributory to model error now and not 36 hours ago when things looked great lol
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Yeah, now we just need a solar minimum cycle and a weaker Gulf Stream current, combined with another lockdown to cut down on carbon output.
 
Rain Cold said:
This post made me laugh so hard. Not because it's not a valid point; it is. It's just that I immediately thought of it this way: We've gotten so desperate with this system that we are digging in the geological event bucket to find hope!

If there's some merit to that idea, I hope it's contributory to model error now and not 36 hours ago when things looked great lol
Click to expand...
The point was never that the models are struggling now with this system & are going to somehow adjust to a weenie output as a result of that atmospheric stimuli.. we’ve seen unusually high amounts of model variability over the past 60 hours with this system. It’s not just this system that’s been affected though. Look globally & you’ll see similar variability with other systems across the globe. The butterfly effect is absolutely real when it comes to atmospheric modeling.. and a massive volcano eruption is a very intense stimuli that atmospheric models don’t consider.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Well, they said that they in-house stuff, but aren't allowed to show it.
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I think the main reason is that tropical tidbits displays looks better than AWIPS displays. I know FFC uses pivotal for briefings but also use it for viewing model outputs tor forecasting. Some forecasters just have different preferences. Some don’t like AWIPS
 
bouncycorn said:
The point was never that the models are struggling now with this system & are going to somehow adjust to a weenie output as a result of that atmospheric stimuli.. we’ve seen unusually high amounts of model variability over the past 60 hours with this system. It’s not just this system that’s been affected though. Look globally & you’ll see similar variability with other systems across the globe. The butterfly effect is absolutely real when it comes to atmospheric modeling.. and a massive volcano eruption is a very intense stimuli that atmospheric models don’t consider.
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I hear you. It's a good point that I hadn't considered. I was just making a little joke. But everything you said makes sense.
 
Awips 2 / a version is available to the public, but you're on your own finding a datafeed. It's their data they don't wanna show I guess.
 
Was curious about Atlantic ridging and sure enough... GFS still reliable for something at least. check out the northward expansion and increase in intensity on the jet north of the greater antilles on 18z GFS hour 12. Don't know if it will translate to better results our way but thought it was a fun tidbit from the topics

gfs_uv200_watl_fh12_trend.gif
 
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