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Pattern Jarring January

pcbjr said:
1000+ Likes!
Been suggesting as much, but glad that someone who actually knows what they are talking about found this old broken clock right once today ... :p
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Lol, Grandfather clock?
 
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*Heat mongerer trigger warning*

Trends. Fab Feb looking ominous..
 

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Hmmm, some of them actually don't look too bad, plus the CFS isn't so reliable anyway. For now it feels like to me February might be back and forth like January was. Warm periods and cold periods.
 
GaWx said:
Despite the current warmup, it won't be nearly strong enough to prevent January from being the first colder than normal month since January of 2016 here. Finally, the streak is about to break!
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Now, Larry, let's just keep it broken ... like an old tool we no longer need in the shed ... ;)
 
deltadog03 said:
We should see the MJO move back into the good phases by early February
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Think early Feb is the start to the possible transition with cold coming to the E another week out maybe 2... anyway mid Feb at the latest think it is possible the Eastern CONUS goes back into the tank... Will be no shortage of cold air just a matter of does where it goes here out into Europe...

EURO mid range forecast
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EURO MJO monthly interesting appears to be heading towards a pretty damn favorable cold setup... This is where we need it to be phase 8, 1 and 2 for cold potential at least
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Xtreme Weather said:
Think early Feb is the start to the possible transition with cold coming to the E another week out maybe 2... anyway mid Feb at the latest think it is possible the Eastern CONUS goes back into the tank... Will be no shortage of cold air just a matter of does where it goes here out into Europe...

EURO mid range forecast
View attachment 3365
EURO MJO monthly interesting appears to be heading towards a pretty damn favorable cold setup... This is where we need it to be phase 8, 1 and 2 for cold potential at least
View attachment 3363
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Those are MJO's that need a knee bend if they happen ... :cool:
If only it could get inside while hanging a left ...
Thanks for the update!
 
We, Florida, GA and Carolina coasts , have all scored with no blocking in ATL and very little help in the PAC , save for a little PNA ridging. Get the cold back, we will iron out the wrinkles! ;)
 
Tarheel1 said:
We, Florida, GA and Carolina coasts , have all scored with no blocking in ATL and very little help in the PAC , save for a little PNA ridging. Get the cold back, we will iron out the wrinkles! ;)
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The PNA ridging has been more than just a little as it averaged near +0.75 in the first half of this month. That is the 10th highest PNA of the 69 January 1-15's since 1950 meaning a top 15 percentile PNA.
 
accu35 said:
Doesn't it feel weird not tracking a winterstorm now? Im bored :(
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I think you've been spoiled by the unusually active 3 big and widespread storms in just 1.5 months. There have been some entire winters with virtually nothing like any of these 3 storms outside of the mountains, NC, and TN. So, to me it doesn't feel weird at all. If anything, having 3 widespread major storms in just 6 weeks felt weird since it was unusual. KATL had its earliest 2nd 2"+ storm on record back to 1890. We should be thankful for this unusual high level of activity no matter what the rest of this winter has in store.
 
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GaWx said:
I think you've been spoiled by the unusually active 3 big and widespread storms in just 1.5 months. There have been some entire winters with virtually nothing like any of these 3 storms outside of the mountains, NC, and TN. So, to me it doesn't feel weird at all. If anything, having 3 widespread major storms in just 6 weeks felt weird since it was unusual. KATL had its earliest 2nd 2"+ storm on record back to 1890. We should be thankful for this unusual high level of activity no matter what the rest of this winter has in store.
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Your right Larry, and my apologies for being selfish like i am, but ive been waiting for a year like this. Me personally, i think February will be a good one:)
 
It does feel kind of weird but I have to admit a break is nice... I don't even hate the warmup. I went outside on break at work for the first time in awhile tonight and it was just refreshing. Cold all the time gets tiring. I still think theres plenty of winter to come in February.

What's more weird is to have a bunch of threats after the last couple of years when the only thing we were tracking was record warmth and tornadoes..
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
NASA says "Zero chance of impact within the next 100 years" so for now our snow totals will just have to be cut by a good ol' fashion warm nose
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Of objects they know of, at least. An asteroid was spotted for the very first time this past Christmas Day and then flew by Earth three days later on the 28th between Earth and the Moon.
 
gawxnative said:
Well Wild... I m guessing you are double checking the insulation specs for the new house... coldest winter I had was the year I stayed in a 1935 built country house...BRRRR
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Yessiree I am and I'm sure I will be saying this is my coldest for years to come. 1935? Wow. Borderline dangerous. Even the dogs are shivering.. Even though.. I would be on here obsessing about a snowstorm. Lol! I will be very surprised if it's not a full on ice event that causes delays though...
 
ForsythSnow said:
Did they not do that before early December? If it pools up, we're headed in the right direction.
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Yes. It wasn't nearly this impressive though. It's usually pooled up on one side or the other or concentrated in the middle. This looks more like an arctic zonal flow..if that were possible

If this look is right, US records will be shattered come mid February
 
Missing ingredient to me so far for down the road seems like a +PNA. What I've looked at is neutral or negative.

The NAO doesn't really matter much, but I think that +PNA is needed.
 
I don't doubt it is going to get cold again and we will have more winter storm threats. I like the back and forth and think that is when get the best storms around my area. Of course it isn't going to do anything if we stay warm. But it usually doesnt do much here when we stay cold for a long period, either. It hit 70 six days before last Wednesday's storm. That is the kind of winter that usually produces big ones here.
 
Looks like a.severe threat today.
 

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