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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

DopplerWx said:
folks. sref just doubled for clt. 4" now, rdu 4" too. nam will be GOOD here shortly.
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Also went up over this way further east along the NC/Va border, good sign that the heaviest will still be west but I'm thinking the NAM holds it together longer getting those 2-3 totals a little more east
 
packfan98 said:
When are you going to update your map? After the Nam or RGEM?
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Yeah against what I'd prefer to normally do and only release 1-2 maps for a storm at most, I think I'll need to slightly tweak it again w/ higher totals in your neck of the woods and it's warranted here given the scope of the storm at hand. I'm just glad I started out w/ 2-5" a few days ago...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah against what I'd prefer to normally do and only release 1-2 maps for a storm at most, I think I'll need to slightly tweak it again w/ higher totals in your neck of the woods and it's warranted here given the scope of the storm at hand. I'm just glad I started out w/ 2-5" a few days ago...
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I'd release up until 5am, tbh. The on screen mets who cry "no impacts" don't mind looking like fools when they have to eat crow and update their maps during an event. ;)
 
Bryce- @Midlands_Wx said:
I'm worried about surface temps here in central SC... Mid 30's are forecasted.
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I was saying in the banter thread, that the Western Midlands from say, Lexington, Saluda, Newberry type counties will fare quite a bit better than the actual City of Columbia in my current thinking.
 
Shawn said:
I'd release up until 5am, tbh. The on screen mets who cry "no impacts" don't mind looking like fools when they have to eat crow and update their maps during an event. ;)
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I sort of feel a little foolish myself having to do this more than 2 times but high impact events no matter what the setup are very treacherous & I think this storm is an exception...
 
Bryce- @Midlands_Wx said:
I'm worried about surface temps here in central SC... Mid 30's are forecasted.
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That's fine unless it's just not wet enough...but I do wonder if this might end up like something I saw 9 years ago, few hours of some good snow but no accumulation as I never hit freezing, but then again, the lead up may have been colder than that time.
 
Finally starting to snow here again but it would take a week to probably get an inch with the rate I have. Looks like it may pick up though.
 
Btw @Bryce- @Midlands_Wx , when I said to your post on Twitter about it being dangerous, I meant to speak in literals with the "NOT" thing about any impacts in the Midlands.

There will be impacts, looking just at the watervapor imagery now, and the jetstreaking. Next time, try to do something like "likely not" instead. It's becomming a huge problem on social media when people speak in literals; as it gets shared and retweeted so much and causes people to ignore the potential hazards.
 
Shawn said:
I was saying in the banter thread, that the Western Midlands from say, Lexington, Saluda, Newberry type counties will fare quite a bit better than the actual City of Columbia in my current thinking.
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Currently I'm at 39° according to my Davis station, wasn't supposed to drop below 40° until 4am according to NWS forecasts. Might be a good thing?
 
Claycochaser said:
Returns drying up fast over the northern half of Bama...might be it for us. Dry air and CAA winning the fight. Hopefully you guys in the Carolinas can get the fetch more SW and cash in.
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Depends. I sort of disagree. I think 20/59 corridor and south still has a shot to grab a little more of the moisture you can see on KDGX & KMOB. The storm really slowed down yet that moisture has just recently gotten its act together, and it is moving NE.

It won't take a whole lot to give a bit more moisture to layers that while are drying... are significantly more moist than the norm during that type of arctic temps.

We shall see. I actually think Bibb, Shelby, Chilton, Talladega, Clay, etc aren't remotely done yet.
 
Here's the 0z HRRR. Still snowing from I-77 east.
snku_acc.us_ma.png
 
Bryce- @Midlands_Wx said:
Currently I'm at 39° according to my Davis station, wasn't supposed to drop below 40° until 4am according to NWS forecasts. Might be a good thing?
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I'd be more concerned with calculating your wetbulb temperature than the outside temperature at the ground level. When precipitation starts, temperatures will crash. North is getting a bit far South though.
 
bud006 said:
Interesting ... the SREF mean for GVL jumped to 1.3" on the 21z run.

A weather station about three miles to my west has dropped from 34 degrees to 31.3 in the past 20 minutes.

--30--
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Just to add two points: One, looks like almost as many members above the mean for GVL as below.

Two, I walked outside a bit ago and while it's just flurrying here, what stood out is my roads are wet and my grass is wet. That freezes with any snowfall on top and the roads will be a skating rink in the morning.

--30--
 
Shawn said:
I'd be more concerned with calculating your wetbulb temperature than the outside temperature at the ground level. When precipitation starts, temperatures will crash. North is getting a bit far South though.
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Wetbulb is 37° right now...
 
Btw that what over 3 hours of micro flakes gets you about 1/4" so far[/QUOTE]
Looks like you're under some good returns right now! Send em to North Cobb County please.
 
Bsud said:
I wonder since these new plumes went up, if GSP will upgrade to a warning for places like the upstate and NC?

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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They talked about this in a forecast update, they said they would decide whether to upgrade by 10.
 
Bryce- @Midlands_Wx said:
Wetbulb is 37° right now...
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Yeah well, watch that; same to everyone else around Augusta and more "southern" type zones in GA and SC. If it starts to rise as the night goes on, it's likely from the SW flow and clouds thickening up. It can still start to plummet back downward as the colder air starts to pour in, though.
 
SimeonNC said:
They talked about this in a forecast update, they said they would decide whether to upgrade by 10.
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I will be shocked if Mecklenburg county isn't upgraded due to an increase in SREF plumes and short term high resolution models increasing totals to warning criteria.
 
La Plata said:
Depends. I sort of disagree. I think 20/59 corridor and south still has a shot to grab a little more of the moisture you can see on KDGX & KMOB. The storm really slowed down yet that moisture has just recently gotten its act together, and it is moving NE.

It won't take a whole lot to give a bit more moisture to layers that while are drying... are significantly more moist than the norm during that type of arctic temps.

We shall see. I actually think Bibb, Shelby, Chilton, Talladega, Clay, etc aren't remotely done yet.
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I hope not:)
 
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