Tropical TD9

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Brent]

Here we go the dreaded I name and the name nobody can pronounce

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[weather nerd]

0z deepmind seems to have moved a bit east vs 18z. id assume pensacola type area as the general idea

 

[Belle Lechat]

...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

4:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 07
Location: 22.0°N 94.1°W
Moving: ENE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE is scheduled to depart in 57 minutes

 

[Belle Lechat]

from the Discussion

the NHC
intensity forecast is being raised accordingly, now showing Isaias
reaching a peak intensity of 95 kt in 48 h while it is over the
central Gulf.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[weather nerd]

Good lord, if we weren't fighting shear; I'd hate to see what this thing would have actually become without it. Really lucked out this time around, from a catastrophe.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

HURRICANE HUNTERS INBOUND FROM BILOXI AS OF 0947Z

 

[hky1894]

Overnight hurricane models were all pretty concerning imo HAFS A-B both dropped the idea of weakening as much leading into landfall and HWRF and HMON as well. All of these models drop pressure into upper 940s with minor weakening at landfall into lower to mid 950s.

 

[malak05]

Overnight hurricane models were all pretty concerning imo HAFS A-B both dropped the idea of weakening as much leading into landfall and HWRF and HMON as well. All of these models drop pressure into upper 940s with minor weakening at landfall into lower to mid 950s.

The variable of Wind Shear will be of major importance here, it's pretty assured there will be some but can't be sure just how much it will impact the growth of this storm yet and if it's on the lesser side or storm moves faster it could overperform.

 

[malak05]

Way to early read of HWRF 00z run along with the hurricane itself that's some strong cells to west in East AL/West GA

 

[Arcc]

View attachment 198520
Way to early read of HWRF 00z run along with the hurricane itself that's some strong cells to west in East AL/West GA

HWRF far stronger inland than its been. Yeah, no AL/GA game with that look.

 

[DupontWx]

Could this be the one storm that meteorologist tag as “see, we told you, it only takes one named storm to….”

We’ve been fortunate with El Niño to squash any chances of an Atlantic hurricane. Now, could El Niño be the one thing that ventilates this storm enough to not tear it apart but rather help expand it?

Fascinating


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[jrips27]

Certainly looks like a quickly organizing TS this morning

 

[NoSnowATL]

Tyndall is at HURCON 5. Radar is down so moving jets will be a little difficult

 

[ForsythSnow]

Certainly looks like a quickly organizing TS this morning
View attachment 198522View attachment 198523

I fully expect the inbound flight to find at least 60 for winds with this. Just by the loop I can tell it's already decently organized

 

[Arcc]

EuroAI is locked in on ~Gulf Shores. Euro AI Ensembles and the GFS are targeting Pensacola.

Gonna be a long weekend for me.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

HWRF far stronger inland than its been. Yeah, no AL/GA game with that look.

View attachment 198521

Yep, that would be worst case scenario for the idea of a game occurring on Saturday night, but most other models do suggest faster.

We look as if we'd be well on our way to another high-end Gulf major under normal circumstances today.

 

[Arcc]

Icon is weaker but would still cause a swath of 60-80mph gusts from Tuscaloosa to Carrolton, GA.

 

[Arcc]

Yep, that would be worst case scenario for the idea of a game occurring on Saturday night, but most other models do suggest faster.

We look as if we'd be well on our way to another high-end Gulf major under normal circumstances today.

I don't think speed or timing means much anymore unless it slows down by a day. If we get widespread 60-80mph gusts, you are talking widespread tree damage and power outages. That alone will get the game postponed.

 

[Belle Lechat]