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Tropical TD9

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...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

4:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 07
Location: 22.0°N 94.1°W
Moving: ENE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
 
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from the Discussion

the NHC
intensity forecast is being raised accordingly, now showing Isaias
reaching a peak intensity of 95 kt in 48 h while it is over the
central Gulf.
 
Overnight hurricane models were all pretty concerning imo HAFS A-B both dropped the idea of weakening as much leading into landfall and HWRF and HMON as well. All of these models drop pressure into upper 940s with minor weakening at landfall into lower to mid 950s.
 
hky1894 said:
Overnight hurricane models were all pretty concerning imo HAFS A-B both dropped the idea of weakening as much leading into landfall and HWRF and HMON as well. All of these models drop pressure into upper 940s with minor weakening at landfall into lower to mid 950s.
Click to expand...
The variable of Wind Shear will be of major importance here, it's pretty assured there will be some but can't be sure just how much it will impact the growth of this storm yet and if it's on the lesser side or storm moves faster it could overperform.
 
Could this be the one storm that meteorologist tag as “see, we told you, it only takes one named storm to….”

We’ve been fortunate with El Niño to squash any chances of an Atlantic hurricane. Now, could El Niño be the one thing that ventilates this storm enough to not tear it apart but rather help expand it?

Fascinating


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