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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

I know it's nowcasting time, but man the 0z NAM significantly stronger with the ULL -- higher vorticity, an extra contour and a little bit south. Perhaps it's catching on the reality on the ground. Speaking of, multiple reports in Va. and Tenn. of 2 inches on the ground.

EDIT: That strong ULL is doing some work -- snow all the way back to the Ga./Bama line this run.

 
I know it's nowcasting time, but man the 0z NAM significantly stronger with the ULL -- higher vorticity, an extra contour and a little bit south. Perhaps it's catching on the reality on the ground. Speaking of, multiple reports in Va. and Tenn. of 2 inches on the ground.


Bean can you post when it finishes by chance


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My forecast for Georgia largely remains the same.

I’m not buying the mega-band across metro Atlanta. It is the result of a recognized HRRR/ECMWF wind bias here, increasing low level convergence.

We shall see!View attachment 192129
Would NAM and RAP suffer the same bias? Or RRFS? At least right now all 3 are showing an ATL hit, while the 00z FV3 basically looks like your map or the GFS, with the storm basically dying right along the border of Dekalb County.
 
Hit the button MHX. We all know you want to. This is for all of Dare County.

..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected, with blizzard conditions possible.
Total snow accumulations between 4 and 8 inches with locally
higher amounts possible. Winds gusting as high as 65 mph.

* WHERE...Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and
blowing snow. Whiteout conditions are expected and will make
travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Strong winds
could cause tree damage.
 
Looks like on the NAM, the RAH snow minimum that was on some modeling is apparent, but I could see the moisture from the ULL and deepening coastal precip merge and fill in that gap with some very intense rates! IMG_4513.png
 
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