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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

packfan98 said:
GFS is looking good for western NC so far.
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I don't think it's done correcting to the GFS-AI and 3km NAM. Clearly the GFS-AI is a much better model...it never bought into the super amped runs and has been consistently south/east with the best snow.


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Not sure why but all the models set up a really decent FGEN region over N GA but few actually drop heavy precip. GFS shows the lower 900 mb being slightly too dry. I'm wondering if it'll come in as a surprise or if there's some reason it's showing up like this. I'd think the NW winds against the mountains would stop the dry air when it's that low given the upper level tropical moisture inflow
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
RGEM and OPs still don’t agree on the degree of tilt around 60 hours. Until that resolves we are going to bounce
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Very minor changes in the strength, location, and tilt of that upper low have significant implications. Models are still all over the place with it.
Edward Nygma said:
I already posted on this, but the Gulf Stream is anomalously warm right now. How we don't see abundant convection and a low form along that is beyond me. Of course, I don't have a met tag or anything.

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That's a sweet temperature gradient.

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I've mentioned this in my videos a couple of times. Right now, I'm not buying the Bahama low scenario. I think closer to the GS is the way to go. Still got a lot to figure out though.

These systems can be real heartbreakers, but they are really fun to watch evolve and see how all of the dynamics come together. They can also end up being really special.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not sure why but all the models set up a really decent FGEN region over N GA but few actually drop heavy precip. GFS shows the lower 900 mb being slightly too dry. I'm wondering if it'll come in as a surprise or if there's some reason it's showing up like this. I'd think the NW winds against the mountains would stop the dry air when it's that low given the upper level tropical moisture inflow
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prolly just gfs being gfs but who knows
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not sure why but all the models set up a really decent FGEN region over N GA but few actually drop heavy precip. GFS shows the lower 900 mb being slightly too dry. I'm wondering if it'll come in as a surprise or if there's some reason it's showing up like this. I'd think the NW winds against the mountains would stop the dry air when it's that low given the upper level tropical moisture inflow
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There’s gonna be a streamer that drops 2-5 somewhere in WGA that I will probably account for in my next map
 
Yeh, guys, picking nits a bit here. Also, if you want to feel better, listen to Fishel’s podcast that was posted here. He thinks the Gulfstream bombs this thing much closer to the coast and that models are having a hard time with that warm water feature.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Ross said:
rufus is what happens when the low bombs in the area you'd expect it to bomb given the synoptics lol
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I feel like the whole storm is getting messed up due to that secondary/primary low fight on all the models in the Atlantic. It seems like with such a strong ULL, the real surface low should tuck right along the coast. It seems like that's what the WPC is counting on as well. I really wish the models would just all go to that, but I don't know. I think the big totals being shown are really dependent on that low bombing and throwing moisture west and not getting the main low sent to Bermuda.

Engeo said:
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I agree with this. If the low doesn't bomb and we don't get under the deformation band, I have doubts that the ULL precip is going to be all that impressive in the southern piedmont. It'll be very bandy, and spotty with winners/losers right next to each other as discussed. With pixie dust snow, not sure it would accumulate very deep from a measuring perspective (not to mention, the trend is pushing everything south this morning). No gulf moisture fetch to get big totals like we're accustomed to. Could be totally wrong, but it just doesn't feel like a big winner here to me except for the awesome temps.

Overall, this storm is very anomalous (weird) to me with the last second ULL drop, and primary/secondary low fight in the Atlantic. I'll just wait and see what happens.
 
Canadian a little faster with the ULL -- struggling to find a trend pattern with the 12z runs -- some slower with ULL, some faster, seems mainly like noise that is ripe to be overparsed.
 
SnowNiner said:
I feel like the whole storm is getting messed up due to that secondary/primary low fight on all the models in the Atlantic. It seems like with such a strong ULL, the real surface low should tuck right along the coast. It seems like that's what the WPC is counting on as well. I really wish the models would just all go to that, but I don't know. I think the big totals being shown are really dependent on that low bombing and throwing moisture west and not getting the main low sent to Bermuda.



I agree with this. If the low doesn't bomb and we don't get under the deformation band, I have doubts that the ULL precip is going to be all that impressive in the southern piedmont. It'll be very bandy, and spotty with winners/losers right next to each other as discussed. With pixie dust snow, not sure it would accumulate very deep from a measuring perspective (not to mention, the trend is pushing everything south this morning). No gulf moisture fetch to get big totals like we're accustomed to. Could be totally wrong, but it just doesn't feel like a big winner here to me except for the awesome temps.

Overall, this storm is very anomalous (weird) to me with the last second ULL drop, and primary/secondary low fight in the Atlantic. I'll just wait and see what happens.
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The Synoptics behind the ULL is rather extreme and top notch for the area, this isn’t a regular run of the mill ULL. While yes it will be winners and losers with banding, a few people are gonna get nuked under that band with perhaps a double digit total. The column is quite anomalous as well with high ratios and deep dendritic growth zones. Just where does it setup ?
 
OH Canada is still going boom with the coastal.

Hoping the models struggling to consolidate to the coastal low track that have multiple centers will hopefully correct to the one SLP near Hatteras.
 
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