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Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

BrickTamland said:
Catching up from overnight. It's funny to see the Euro now showing more than the GFS. It has over a foot here while the GFS backed down to 7 to 8. Canadian still showing over a foot, too. I think folks are being cautious calling for anything less than 8 to 12 inches for my area.
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NWS RAH is calling for 2-4. I know they are conservative but would have thought the numbers would be higher than that. Like 4-6 probably
 
BrickTamland said:
Catching up from overnight. It's funny to see the Euro now showing more than the GFS. It has over a foot here while the GFS backed down to 7 to 8. Canadian still showing over a foot, too. I think folks are being cautious calling for anything less than 8 to 12 inches for my area.
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That possible dry slot though! Wait and see! All we can talk is models til it’s falling!
 
CaryWx said:
NWS RAH is calling for 2-4. I know they are conservative but would have thought the numbers would be higher than that. Like 4-6 probably
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Not sure where you are seeing 2-4. Here's the official event total accumulations.
StormTotalSnow.jpg
 
CaryWx said:
Trying to catch up here from the overnights. Is the coastal LP not bombing as much or at least not off the NC coast? Seems the ULL is the big hitter
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Last night Fishel was on the Carolina Weather Group with Frank Strait and to be honest, two other gentlemen that I don’t know. He spoke of the LP bombing out sooner and closer to the coast due to the Gulf Stream and how the models may not have a great handle on that. ( similar to the Dec 89 storm. I don’t recall all the specifics but he mentioned speaking with a MET who was a professor at State at that time who is currently in Hawaii. I’m sure you could find the video or others here could speak on it more usefully!
 
CaryWx said:
Trying to catch up here from the overnights. Is the coastal LP not bombing as much or at least not off the NC coast? Seems the ULL is the big hitter
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there was a subtle shift east with the neutral/neg tilt progression yesterday which caps potential some. models also still figuring out multiple lows... some of them are fujiwara-ing around each other lol. lot of game left. i think eventual low position will take nowcasting and will be decided by atlantic convection. while i still think there is convective feedback issues with models, grit posted a good point that the southern shortwave will spur things.

1769694303510.png
i think synoptically what's spurring it is WAA aloft over the bahamas. totally fine enough lift to spur convection when you have actual real life CAPE at the surface. big question for me though is how much "influence" it has over the entire trough complex. my intuition is that convection closer to the coast takes over faster than modeled, but we'll see. as always, some ticks towards a slower, stronger ull wouldn't hurt ;)
 
KyloG said:
I think Eric pointed out this analog a couple of days ago…

View attachment 191134
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But look at that at a 500mb height level. That solution doesn’t seem unlikely with relatively weak forcings and an open wave.
IMG_0193.png
This storm this weekend is a monster at the upper-levels. This is a closed low with deep cyclogenesis. I can perhaps buy the dry slot like December 2010 where some regions have a dip in the transfer between the ULL and coastal. But this still doesn’t sit right with me having such an anemic coastal.
IMG_0194.png
I would not be surprised at all if frontogenesis forcing increases with time, and we end up seeing more QPF especially as we get within 48 hours
 
Ollie Williams said:
But look at that at a 500mb height level. That solution doesn’t seem unlikely with relatively weak forcings and an open wave.
View attachment 191143
This storm this weekend is a monster at the upper-levels. This is a closed low with deep cyclogenesis. I can perhaps buy the dry slot like December 2010 where some regions have a dip in the transfer between the ULL and coastal. But this still doesn’t sit right with me having such an anemic coastal.
View attachment 191149
I would not be surprised at all if frontogenesis forcing increases with time, and we end up seeing more QPF especially as we get within 48 hours
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That’s something that’s definitely bothering me with the modeled depiction. As of now Its a fine storm but when you look at h5 after you’ve seen a lot of these things (and I know you have with your animations) you can’t help but think… that’s it?
 
Brandon10 said:
History says this baby is gonna bomb over the Gulf stream, and looking at where the warmest waters is, I would likely bet near Hatteras.
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I already posted on this, but the Gulf Stream is anomalously warm right now. How we don't see abundant convection and a low form along that is beyond me. Of course, I don't have a met tag or anything.

cdas-sflux_ssta_watl_1 (1).png

That's a sweet temperature gradient.

cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png
 
Brandon10 said:
History says this baby is gonna bomb over the Gulf stream, and looking at where the warmest waters is, I would likely bet near Hatteras.
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The one thing with that is if you look, there are some very low sea surface temperatures right off the coast of SC and southern NC. In fact it’s starting to threaten all time low SSTs in those areas. The temperatures rise quickly once off the continental shelf. I can’t help but wonder if that sets up for a baroclinic zone right close to coast near Myrtle Beach or Cape Fear
 
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