Wintry Machine Learning Mauler 1/30-2/1

[Wild Weather Monger]

The improvements in the ICON solution were apparent at 72 hours. I intended to post this at the time, but the wife happened.

Note the NE TPV retrograding to the NW from earlier runs, leaving breathing room for the Rockies SW to light off a GOM LP/Miller A.

Just a little more of this, and the whole board will be ecstatic. Too much more of this, and the Gulf states will be enjoying a rainstorm.

HUge changes over just the past two days.

 

[rburrel2]

GFS AI still doesn't have the cut off monster... nice run for the upstate and Columbia/Charlotte though!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The ceiling is high even for western sections of the current precip shield I would think. The way models have this thing wrapping up and deepening. Keep that where it’s at and slow it down 6-12 hours and it’s a snow machine kind of look

 

[Packsox03]

Another good thing with this setup is it will tend to be either rain or snow—no ZR

 

[rburrel2]

The ceiling is high even for western sections of the current precip shield I would think. The way models have this thing wrapping up and deepening. Keep that where it’s at and slow it down 6-12 hours and it’s a snow machine kind of look

Doesn't hurt to have -10 to -15C 850's either.

 

[NBAcentel]

GFSAI playing catch up

 

[Makeitsnow]

GFS AI still doesn't have the cut off monster... nice run for the upstate and Columbia/Charlotte though!

View attachment 189488

It continues to trend in the right direction though. But at face value, it's cold. 850s of -10 with surface temps in the upper 20s/near 30 for ne ga/upstate.

 

[Brandon10]

Doesnt hurt that is going to be cold as heck.

GFS looks to be looking better at 87 hours.

 

[NCSNOW]

This was ICON from day 5-6 out for this past weekends event...it did fairly well.

View attachment 189472

It highest resolution of all physics models.
My mouth is watering seeing these pivot gifs at 5h. And on top of that, the column is an icebox top down, high ratios.
Gonna be Fred Sanford gif week in the banter thread.

 

[griteater]

Acceptable
View attachment 189467

The sheer amount of cold air pouring in aloft with the TPV dropping down would make for a very dynamic setup. Cue the thundersnow soundings

 

[NCSnowFan777]

TWC *Potential Winter Storm•

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It continues to trend in the right direction though. But at face value, it's cold. 850s of -10 with surface temps in the upper 20s/near 30 for ne ga/upstate.

View attachment 189490

I’ve seen enough of these to know where that 850 line wants to run. Me thinks we got a lot of tweaking left to do. Unless it’s goint to just plain whiff. But I think that’s the lower odds outcome right now

 

[KyloG]

GFS trends past few runs...its tough to even take GFS seriously this far out

 

[GaWx]

For GA: The 12Z Icon purely upper level driven (based on sfc low then in unfavorable location offshore of the Carolinas moving away) snow of this magnitude in the NE half of GA would be very highly anomalous, especially down this way. If I get the time, I’ll search for an analog.










When a model shows an extreme solution out a few days or more, I don’t bet on it verifying closely. This has a 522 H5 over SAV, which would tie with the historic 1/19/77 522 H5 that brought snow to Miami for the lowest H5 at SAV since at least 1948: so, very likely overdone

Icon for 10PM Sat. night 1/31:


H5 for 12Z 1/19/1977: see upper right


Regardless of what it shows now, look for NW trends away from this.

 

[wow]

GFS is backing it west thanks to the downstream blocking.

 

[Makeitsnow]

 

[broken025]

All models are now getting some snow into NC. Great look at this range.

GFS is in now.

 

[DopplerWx]

Gfs trying to

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

GFS is backing it west thanks to the downstream blocking.

View attachment 189500

Back that Baja feature up a smidge and sharpen out west

 

[Packsox03]

GFS has a well-known progressive bias so this is where w’d like that model to be besides, it’s awful

 

[jackendrickwx]

GFS trends past few runs...its tough to even take GFS seriously this far out

View attachment 189499

Gosh its bad. I've still been using it for my temp forecasts but I have been completely ignoring it if isn't in line with Euro/NBM/AIFS beyond day 3 or 4. Looks like 12z is a hit though

Side note, EPS stamps looked like a decent amount of tracks are still on the table with this one

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Safe to say hurricane hunters are going to be flying into another Baja low later this week

 

[Mahomeless]

This looks like a classic Carolina coastal crush job! You guys have multiple ways to score here.

 

[Brandon10]

Holy GFS for coastal SC up to the Tidewater...

 

[NCSNOW]

Safe to say hurricane hunters are going to be flying into another Baja low later this week

If its not a threat for the DC to Boston corridor they want. But looks like it is, so hopefully, they get some more data.
TpV bevaior,orientation is whats gonna probably decide if,whens,whats,buts imo.

 

[LukeBarrette]

 

[Mahomeless]

Safe to say hurricane hunters are going to be flying into another Baja low later this week

No Baja low associated with this threat.

 

[RBR71]

NBM honking so NWS office will probably start including in their forecast not just AFD

 

[BrickTamland]

12z GFS has snow in NC for counties a little west of Wake and east to the coast.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Outer banks thundersnow

 

[Makeitsnow]

eastern nc gets slammed. pretty much every model is showing snow now for ne ga and the upstate..now.

 

[Stormsfury]

Back that Baja feature up a smidge and sharpen out west

We had no problem last week with a slowing of the Baja Feature. I suspect that will be the case this week.

 

[UNCSC]

Canadian is already backing further west at 12z on h5

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

meant to post this one..back it up

 

[accu35]

There’s a good bit of energy back west here in Alabama with the northern stream on the 12z gfs. Something could consolidate little better as we get closer to.

 

[BrickTamland]

GFS looks to be the furthest east but looking for that NW trend.

 

[Ross]

weakening cat 2 with shear exposing the southern end of the storm

 

[Makeitsnow]

canadian is going to be good too

 

[accu35]

CMC much better back west

 

[weather bubba]

The Miller A low has been sitting off of the North Carolina coast for nine hours at this point and is starting to deepen. The trough is a little too far east for the western parts of NC/SC to get much of anything but if this were to come to pass, the eastern parts of NC would get hammered. Reminder: this is the GFS at more than five days.