Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[Oconeexman]

3k nam would be awesome imby for mostly sleet about 3 inches then a dry slot to zr Sunday night...Best case scenario!

 

[Stormsfury]

I need to see what things look like in the morning after the 0z, 6z, and 12z runs come in before I tweak my forecast call map.

The models are not handling this arctic air mass well at all over the Southern Plains

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Kinda figured this would happen

This high pressure has activated both cold air damming wedge regions simultaneously. Not sure i can remember this happening before

 

[Flo]

This high pressure has activated both cold air damming wedge regions simultaneously. Not sure i can remember this happening before

What does this cause?

 

[tramadoc]

Been driving from Orlando to the snow capital of the world, Moyock, all day long. Power truck after power truck heading north. Mostly Pike and Duke. Like droves of trucks together. They're coming for ya boys and girls.

I’m in Elizabeth City. Looks like rain for us and you.

 

[jeremyt]

Thoughts on it tearing down CAD after the low has passed and turning to rain? Not that I feel there would be much difference as it would freeze overnight.

 

[bouncycorn]

What exactly does the HRW-NSSL think it is doing?

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol you could legit get elevated supercells in these soundings from Raleigh during the latter part of this storm.

You could totally have a storm producing hail, graupel, sleet, and/or freezing rain

 

[malak05]

The HRW-WRG models are freaking cold in through GA and wet ridiculous frz rain #s

 

[malak05]

What exactly does the HRW-NSSL think it is doing?

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Burying NE GA and Carolina in sleetfest

 

[Alias47]

What exactly does the HRW-NSSL think it is doing?

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Uh oh....how likely is this? This has me getting smacked with 1.16.

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[Tsappfrog20]

Just fyi not sure if this is true or not but thought I would share.





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[bouncycorn]

Lol you could legit get elevated supercells in these soundings from Raleigh during the latter part of this storm.

You could totally have a storm producing hail, graupel, sleet, and/or freezing rain

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dude... that is one of the most insane soundings I've ever seen.

 

[wow]

dude...

What, you've never been struck by lightning with frostbite?

 

[DopplerWx]

Yes hoping the short range models underestimating the cold will result in GSP to clt -> RDU overperforming with sleet vs a quick changeover to freezing rain. I know some mentioned this possibility a few days ago with models having tough time identifying sleet

 

[ChattaVOL]

What exactly does the HRW-NSSL think it is doing?

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destroying Chattanooga lol

 

[tramadoc]

That’s actually what I’m trying to figure out and why I’m holding off on updates for now. Could mean a more amped storm on the east coast depending on how it co varies to the wave pattern or keep the south shift going.

Any possibility it changes the outlook for the northeast coastal plain and se VA? Basically from the Chowan River east and north of the Albemarle Sound.

 

[bouncycorn]

End of the HRW-NSSL run. The fact that this is even a possible scenario is a bit alarming.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

What exactly does the HRW-NSSL think it is doing?

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I presume the "dry slot" is sleet.

 

[bouncycorn]

I presume the "dry slot" is sleet.

 

[iGRXY]

3k nam would be awesome imby for mostly sleet about 3 inches then a dry slot to zr Sunday night...Best case scenario!

That “dry slot” would be putting down very efficient ZR

 

[Psalm 148:8]

What, you've never been struck by lightning with frostbite?

I’ve seen thunder snow.. legit! Most astounding thing I’ve seen in nature! @wow !! That’s a hoot !!!

 

[weather bubba]

Here's the latest ice accrual map from the NWS Blend of Models hot off the press. KRDU has mentioned this model in a couple of past weather discussions this week and if this map is even close to what we might see, a lot of us would breathe a sigh of relief.

 

[Brent]

The flurries have started

This is gonna be big here

 

[wow]

Germans

 

[Yertmoo]

Well fellas, I know it's been said but we gotta hope and pray for as much sleet as possible and hunker down. The upstate and WNC don't need this so close after Helene but it's what we got. Everybody please stay safe and God bless you and your families!

What GOD is blessing us? Makes a difference

 

[Webberweather53]

This is so dumb

There are literally embedded elevated supercells in the freezing rain squall on the front

 

[ChattaVOL]

anyone have the icon ice map ?

 

[LongRanger]

3k nam would be awesome imby for mostly sleet about 3 inches then a dry slot to zr Sunday night...Best case scenario!

I would not be one but surprised if that's how it plays out around here

 

[EmersonGA]

End of the HRW-NSSL run. The fact that this is even a possible scenario is a bit alarming.

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How reliable is this model? This outcome would catch a ton of people off guard.

 

[Brent9]

This is so dumb

There are literally embedded elevated supercells in the freezing rain squall on the front

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Do you think this would be regular rain in the upstate?

 

[TigerSnow]

This is so dumb

There are literally embedded elevated supercells in the freezing rain squall on the front

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I am reading that correctly that Charlotte would be rain then? Would that help with some ice?

 

[Tsappfrog20]

This is so dumb

There are literally embedded elevated supercells in the freezing rain squall on the front

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That is crazy!!!


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[Ron Burgundy]

What GOD is blessing us? Makes a difference

I’d say “post less” but it’d be hard

 

[weather bubba]

This is so dumb

There are literally embedded elevated supercells in the freezing rain squall on the front

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Supercells producing freezing rain, now I've seen it all! I wonder if we will see an icenado next.

 

[iGRXY]

Those happy about the 3K being primarily sleet. This is a sounding from only a couple hours into the storm. It’s showing as sleet but that is quite clearly a freezing rain sounding. That’s a massive deep warm nose. The other issue is the cold layer is quite cold around 2500 ft to the ground but that’s just simply not enough time to cool this back into sleet. If anything it’s hurting us because it’s giving you a super chilled rain drop with way less latent heat release. Needless to say, the 3K NAM is probably all ZR as well

 

[Yertmoo]

I’d say “post less” but it’d be hard

why?

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

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Say what? It has me as cold as 20 degrees with a Jimmy Durante warm nose. LOL. Right!

 

[MSnowAtl]

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I can totally see this happening!

 

[Btownheel]

What do you think the implications could be here in the Carolinas???

Sleet. A lot of it.


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[Chazwin]

What are you looking at?? It looks basically the same as 18z