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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

The HRRR is absolutely terrifying. It has absolutely perfect accrual rates and drops over an inch of liquid with probably another quarter of an inch to go at the end of the run. Starts and ends as ZR. Temps along 85 don’t get above 28 degrees and the wedge holds nearly down to I20 and well into NE Georgia for the entirety of the run. The worst part is the 1 hr rates only range from 0.04-0.08 per hour in low 20 degree temps. Even the big band drops about 0.15 per hour for a couple of hours before the back edge gets back down to that 0.08 per hour rate. Absolutely perfect accrual rates. There’s even a couple hour drag in precip but we know it’ll be freezing drizzle or light showers
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
There no way..we’ve got to flip when that convection rolls through. It’s not up for debate. We have to. Need it like fresh air man
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A convective line roled through like that with the 2015 ice/sleet storm. I hit 31 degrees as it departed. Literally every model had me getting above freezing when it hit, and some of them shot me up to like 48-50 when it hit.
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
There no way..we’ve got to flip when that convection rolls through. It’s not up for debate. We have to. Need it like fresh air man
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The wedge is taking such a beating by then even I, a massive wedge truther, find it hard to believe it would hold that well
 
jackendrickwx said:
HRRR has a convective line over the CAD switching precip to sleet
View attachment 188286
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Even though it’s the long range HRRR, I actually wonder if that might be legit possibility. Most of the modeling agrees on some kind of convective line coming through overnight on Sunday. I remember that happened towards the end of the February 1996 Ice Storm in the NC Piedmont. A line of convection came through switching everything over to extremely heavy sleet with thunder and lightning
 
I think there’s going to be more sleet in the upstate than what people expect, after going back and looking at data from that 2015 event.

Sleet wasn’t even on a consideration or possibility the day before that event, and somehow I wound up with 90% sleet and just glaze of freezing rain at the end.

-8 to -10 925s will get the job done.
 
iGRXY said:
The HRRR shows you just how legit that low level cold air is and just how bad the operational are at picking it up. The areas that flip to rain on the euro and gfs as the convective band rolls through? Don’t count on it
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Does it still have the low primary low tracking northeastern?
 
Not sure if it has any bearing on what will happen, probably not, but any of y'all noticing temps are already colder in places by several degrees a few hours earlier than almost all CAMs showed. I know imby it's 32.5 and almost all still have me in upper 30s to low 40s at this time. Just an observation
 
Interesting to see the 0z NAM colder in the western areas of the storm, but a little slower to bring the CAD cold into play. Thought it might be moisture/wet bulb driven, but the precip shield looks in roughly the same place. Probably just model noise, I guess.
 
fram_acc-imp.us_state_ga_sc.png

This is where we are at with another 3-6 hours to go in the upstate
 
rburrel2 said:
I think there’s going to be more sleet in the upstate than what people expect, after going back and looking at data from that 2015 event.

Sleet wasn’t even on a consideration or possibility the day before that event, and somehow I wound up with 90% sleet and just glaze of freezing rain at the end.

-8 to -10 925s will get the job done.
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if you remember, we actually saw a small mesohigh develop in southwest VA with that storm and it help to filter in deeper cold air driving the 925s much lower than what had been modeled. Now I’ve not seen any sign of mesohigh forming, we wouldn’t until within a few hours, but this CAD is obviously much stronger with stronger high pressure anchoring it and stronger blocking up top than that storm had.
 
iGRXY said:
The HRRR is absolutely terrifying. It has absolutely perfect accrual rates and drops over an inch of liquid with probably another quarter of an inch to go at the end of the run. Starts and ends as ZR. Temps along 85 don’t get above 28 degrees and the wedge holds nearly down to I20 and well into NE Georgia for the entirety of the run. The worst part is the 1 hr rates only range from 0.04-0.08 per hour in low 20 degree temps. Even the big band drops about 0.15 per hour for a couple of hours before the back edge gets back down to that 0.08 per hour rate. Absolutely perfect accrual rates. There’s even a couple hour drag in precip but we know it’ll be freezing drizzle or light showers
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Godspeed to you and everyone in that region

Gonna be rough
 
iGRXY said:
The HRRR is absolutely terrifying. It has absolutely perfect accrual rates and drops over an inch of liquid with probably another quarter of an inch to go at the end of the run. Starts and ends as ZR. Temps along 85 don’t get above 28 degrees and the wedge holds nearly down to I20 and well into NE Georgia for the entirety of the run. The worst part is the 1 hr rates only range from 0.04-0.08 per hour in low 20 degree temps. Even the big band drops about 0.15 per hour for a couple of hours before the back edge gets back down to that 0.08 per hour rate. Absolutely perfect accrual rates. There’s even a couple hour drag in precip but we know it’ll be freezing drizzle or light showers
Click to expand...
If anyone in a ZR zone wants something to track up until go time, precip rates. That research I posted earlier showed you can plausibly get 1:1 ice to liquid ratios at lower hourly rates.
 
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