There are only so many power trucks to go around
This is so dumb
There are literally embedded elevated supercells in the freezing rain squall on the front
.21? Now we're talking. Tolerable
Thanks for that follow up, I am guessing that the warm nose would cause our actual temperature to rise above freezing then as well, otherwise it would still be freezing rain?
I have liked the blend of models so far, but this feels lower than it should, I mean, I’m not mad at it, but hesitant with all the recent models/nowcasting to trust this completely.
In my opinion, that line is just the NAM doing its usual outlandish antics in pretty much any scenario outside of 24 hours. It’s the same reason why is m will give you a 1060 HP during Arctic outbreaks and a routinely give us sub 900 mb hurricanes too. That line will definitely have some stout rain in it but I highly doubt we will come close to embedded cells
Twice I have seen it , it was green.
Got to strongly disagree. We have already discussed this earlier. That -10C layer is all that is needed to turn that to sleet. You have subfreezing air from the 850mb level all the way to the ground. That will be sleet 100% of the time .... doesn't matter how deep the melting layer is above it. Also, you have a secondary dendric growth layer that will introduce needles, columns, and sectored plates into the falling precip. This is going to be a wild time.
Yes! I got it in March '09. Lightning in snow.. It was a sight to behold.
I saw it in March of 1993. It was literally how I saw that it was snowing outside. I heard thunder and was bummed that “it was still raining”. Looked outside anyway. Immediately another flash. Nope! Snowing hard! Already accumulating.
or otherwise...front?
A few drinks and everyone hates the NAM. You're good
What makes you think that?? What modeling??
CAD will most likely eventually erode up there because of a very strong 850mb warm nose, eventually overriding the surface there. Low pressure wants to try to track right through there before eventually trying to bounce around the CAD. You should transition to rain, but areas east of you aren't so lucky.
The secondary dendric growth layer is something that GSP has mentioned in its discussions a couple times in the last day
Every short range model continues to come in colder in N. AL. These same short range models are too warm out west at initialization. The reason they are too warm is they aren’t handling the depth or speed of the HP coming in. If this continues to translate east, there won’t be much of a warm nose. No model is predicting the low to hug the coast as long as I think it will….its just what I am deducting for all the reasons above.
Fun to look at but for most in GA/AL useless as timing sort out range limited at this point. Almost in just short range and actually live monitoring
Wouldn't spend time looking at the GFS or EURO right now
Not picking on you...I would stay away from the global models at this point and stick with the higher resolution ones, going forward.
Convection in gulf WILL cause problems of warm nose.
Every hi-res/short range model would disagree….I know where my money sits!
