HRRR has Gainesville, GA at 21(!) on Sunday morning at 5am. Mercy 
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
HRRR has made some improvements early still got some work to do with moisture feed into GA but belief it will. If this dry up hole doesn't occur ATL gets CRUSHED
It still fills back in as the amp up air/moisture approaches from west and is still freezing rain before warm air "pushes' CAD out but if didn't loss that 2-3 hours or frz rain accumlations are 100% in the .3 to .5 frz rain in that circle with more to come.
It still fills back in as the amp up air/moisture approaches from west and is still freezing rain before warm air "pushes' CAD out but if didn't loss that 2-3 hours or frz rain accumlations are 100% in the .3 to .5 frz rain in that circle with more to come.
I think ATL proper is going to struggle with temps going below 31. NE from there it’s going to end up ugly. I’m preparing for the worst .5-.75” ZR and hoping for a washout here in the low 30s
Too early to tell definitely Euro AI/ICON think not and the latest HRRR took a big nod to those as well it was more of a qpf matter not a cold matter. The qpf was a uptick from last 12z run so it maybe playing catchup if you got fill in that blip as mentioned with moisture ATL is areas to west of ATL are approaching .30 to .40 inches of frz rain and ATL is close to half thru the event
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Hour 9 NAM already south with precip compared to 12Z
Same applies with telco service. Ma Bell won't touch anything until power lines have been repaired and winds and roads are safe.
Oh, and if your power is fed overhead to your home, do what you can now to prevent the service line from being pulled from the meter mast on your home. Utility companies won't touch your service line until a much in demand electrician has made the house ready for service.
HRRR is not the only model to show this for metro ATL. FV3 and others also have light to no freezing rain/rain during Sunday morning. The main batches of precip are currently modelled in metro ATL as rain to zr Saturday night, and Sunday afternoon a heavy squall line with rain
Stormsfury
Member
Hmmm. Interesting. Something off with the northern regions.
Showmeyourtds
Member
Shirley some of this in the EXTREME area would be at least some pingers...But I haven't seen it in the modeling. All the upper level soundings say ZR too...Thank god for underground utilities and bourbon
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WxBlue
Meteorologist
NWS RAH lowered a bit around here. Still devastating, obviously.
beanskip
Member
Have a theory on downstream impacts?
Stormsfury
Member
I really don't exactly know BUT I think this might imply a fill in on the high pressure and no escape hatch, more banana high pressure. It also could pertain to models and the energy flying around having it incorrect. All I do know is the what ContentWeatherGuy said. The northern and southern areas of this still could see HUGE adjustments between now and go time.
Just quickly glancing at 18z NAM rolling in it looks like it's jumping south/flatter
Thrasher Fan
Member
Reminder... during CAD events a lot of moisture can/will fall that is not depicted on radar.
NBAcentel
Member
If only we did this 2 days ago…. 
tony romo voice - uhhh idk jim
wow
Member
just putting this here
that is a large move at this range from the nam
to be clear not saying this is gonna turn into snow for NC i am just pulling for maximum sleet imby
smast16
Member
I would still think this would be IP.
If it's not IP, then that's a super cooled liquid that would freeze almost instantly.
If it's not IP, then that's a super cooled liquid that would freeze almost instantly.
NWMSGuy
Member
Freezing Rain totals have increased between the 12z and 18z HRRR locally. Dangerous situation developing. 
LongRanger
Member
I notice some has lowered ice totals just a tad, would this because they thinking more sleet for us?
Tsappfrog20
Member
Definitely looks like an increase in moisture at hr 30
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looks like it's weakening to me 1043->1041
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Wouldn’t this mean that Northern Stream is running late ? Lead to less clean phase ? But in the end more Suppression?
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12z WeatherNext2 cooled quite a bit from last run. 
Now on this one I do see the cold press in NC increasing.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Well I said it earlier, NAM was too far north. Correcting closer to the HRRR. Obviously time for this to come back the other way but we are locking in now.
womp still flipped to ZR by 06z on this run, same as last run. Western upstate/NE GA/SWNC may have been ZR the whole time
Mahomeless
Member
Remember...these models will often latch onto an idea, self-correct in the short term (6-12 hours) with actual observation input, and then derail back to their flawed idea. I have a gut that we are going to continue to see this southern trend with every run of the short range/hi-res models....we've seen this 100 times.