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Pattern January Joke

smast16 said:
Are we doing this all again next week too? GFS says over a foot and Euro says what storm, enjoy the cold...
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Hard to model-track with no power and toppled cell-phone towers. Looking forward to getting back online in a week and seeing where it ended up!
 
smast16 said:
Are we doing this all again next week too? GFS says over a foot and Euro says what storm, enjoy the cold...
Click to expand...

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NCSNOW said:
Speaking of timing. You have a good memory /fascination with winter wx over the years. I've experienced this a few times throughout the years, where we get into patterns and they get a rhythm giving us winter wx on the same day of the week or weekend , for consecutive weeks in a row. Last one I remember was Jan 2022 I believe. We kept getting small 1-2 inch events for like 3 straight weekends. Had it happen twice back in the 80's, late Feb/March of 2013.
Could we be getting into one now perhaps? No way to tell until you look in the rear view mirror. But when I see what's happening on the LR outlook for Feb and this next weekend threat. Makes you start to wonder.

By middle of next week:
I will have seen it snowflake/ no ice 4 separate times allready
Been through a major winter/Ice storm
Possibly record a 0/sub zero low for the 1st time in forever.
Only thing missing will be a true Blue all snow / miller A winter storm. eclipsing annual snow accum for the 1st time in I don't know when, several years.

Good Times
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Yeah the much ballyhooed Feb-Mar 1960 comes to mind. Late Jan 1966 had a great pattern of repeating storms. Late Jan - early Mar 2010 of course. The best ones seemed to be tied to -AO/-NAO at least in some respects, so here we are now. Sure looks like we have a chance to make a good run here into mid-Feb
 
LittleMountain said:
Looks like GFS squashed the storm next week?
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Probably going to see several runs like that over the next few days but imo that is where we want it to be. Just need to keep holding onto it with the ensembles. The GFS is more then likely overestimating the cold in the long rage. It was doing the same thing a few days ago with -5 to -20 degree readings in north and central Alabama. I really believe this is the big one but we shall see. Both AI models looked good as well.

Actually here it comes right now at 210 hours.

This is a great look at this lead point.
 
Parker said:
Probably going to see several runs like that over the next few days but imo that is where we want it to be. Just need to keep holding onto it with the ensembles. The GFS is more then likely overestimating the cold in the long rage. It was doing the same thing a few days ago with -5 to -20 degree readings in north and central Alabama. I really believe this is the big one but we shall see. Both AI models looked good as well.

Actually here it comes right now at 210 hours.

This is a great look at this lead point.
Click to expand...

You know dang well, we don’t get NW Trends when it matters …. Congrats Biloxi


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It's crazy to see how consistently well below average the temperatures throughout the South are forecast to be all of next week on some of these model runs, particularly the 18z GFS. I guess that's what a favorable pattern plus a nearby snowpack can do for you.
 
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