Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[Packsox03]

May be banter but they need to get rid of those snow accumulation forecasts on a weather app. It's going to catch so many people with their pants down and it's honestly frustrating. Those apps are intended for everyday, is it going to be 40 or 70 type of deals, not extreme phenomena like what we're dealing with.

 

[iGRXY]

Good lord this is FRAM? Good lord

Every FRAM model run is pushing an inch of accrual. I don’t see how we aren’t getting at least 0.75” minimum

 

[KyloG]

That model is almost on its own now. Pretty much all others have settled into the 1-2" range (ignoring NAM)

This model is losing me now. I had more faith in it but now it's limiting QPF too much. We will have moisture from the gulf and the other models are holding steady at 1" + of QPF. Doesn't make sense to keep supporting it

For Raleigh....Its all 3 major AI models...GFS-AI...AIFS...Google AI around 0.5-0.7" QPF while the major globals (UK/GFS/Euro/CMC) are all double that. Let's see who wins...

Again...this is just the overrunning part through Sunday night...not counting what comes after the transfer. This part would be mostly sleet I hope.

All I have heard is how great the AI models have been...




AI Models

 

[Chazwin]

And that’s probably gong to be accurate, but isn’t the GFS showing below zero temps?

Yes, which unless this thing stuns everyone and dumps 10 inches of snow in the Piedmont, it’s not happening

 

[TheWeatherDriver]

For Raleigh....Its all 3 major AI models...GFS-AI...AIFS...Google AI around 0.5-0.7" QPF while the major globals (UK/GFS/Euro/CMC) are all double that. Let's see who wins...

Again...this is just the overrunning part through Sunday night...not counting what comes after the transfer. This part would be mostly sleet I hope.

All I have heard is how great the AI models have been...

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AI Models


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I'm looking at nowcasting and short term models for QPF at this point. But I tend to trust the euro and gfs over ai...

 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

This is a really sobering thought. Imagine communications will grind to a halt if cell towers lose power and generators run out of fuel. Bad situation…

Sounds like WNC during Helene. If I learned a few things from that time that will buy you a few days, it's this:

• Keep a battery powered radio on hand. A lot of good information gets put out on the radio when all other lines of comms are down.
• Keep some cash on hand. Cards didn't work when communications went down.
• Fill up your cars and if you have an extra gas can, keep one filled up. I ran out of gas trying to find gas.
• Go grab some dry foods for easy storage and easy cooking. Not bread and milk.

 

[dsaur]

I imagine part of that is post-Helene fears. At least here in Augusta nobody really expected it to be nearly as bad as it turned out to be, so people are being very cautious now. At least that is what I am seeing in my area based on how busy the grocery store has been.

It's because ya'll got trashed in that last ice storm. Only have to live thru that once to realize what might happen. Hope you fair a lot better this time!!

 

[KyloG]

I'm looking at nowcasting and short term models for QPF at this point. But I tend to trust the euro and gfs over ai...

NAM following AI models for QPF...so far but we asking for a lot with the 84 hour NAM. But point taken and agree...let's see how the mesos look tomorrow. I just thought it was interesting the AI models are clustered and the non-Ai are clustered.

I think the EPS is hard to beat with QPF but see what it shows tomorrow 12z.

 

[rburrel2]

For Raleigh....Its all 3 major AI models...GFS-AI...AIFS...Google AI around 0.5-0.7" QPF while the major globals (UK/GFS/Euro/CMC) are all double that. Let's see who wins...

Again...this is just the overrunning part through Sunday night...not counting what comes after the transfer. This part would be mostly sleet I hope.

All I have heard is how great the AI models have been...

View attachment 187657


AI Models


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Comes down to how much convection blocks moisture transport to the Midwest. The fact that the euro is showing that now tells me it’s probably happening to some degree.

 

[rburrel2]

Also you know if you lived in Kentucky the drier models would verify there… and they probably will. It makes some sense that the best qpf runs more along the arctic frontal boundary.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

This isn’t your granddaddy’s ice storm. Lows of 22 and 24 on the southern fringes of the wedge during the peak. This winter storm will most likely be the new standard

 

[bouncycorn]

Models seem to be trending towards what Windborne’s proprietary model had a few days ago

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Models seem to be trending towards what Windborne’s proprietary model had a few days ago

In regards to temps I’d say so, precip but south of there per the latest 12Z guidance.

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Good look at the GRAF from our friend Gerald!!




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[Tsappfrog20]

Here is WRAL forecast right now!




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[Dunkman]

Here is WRAL forecast right now!




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Southern Wake getting screwed with all ZR, seems about right.

 

[WxBlue]

That is an insane forecast from WRAL. They're usually cautious and conservative too.

 

[malak05]

By the Naked eye the NAM looks very GFS like at frame 30

 

[WEATHERBOYROY]

HRR 18 VS NAM 3K 12Z snow line south for the hrr. Lp off cal coast slower on the hrr. overall flatter approach on hrr.

 

[Tarheel1]

I’d recommend some alternate heat sources!! If you have a fireplace, stick up on wood!!
In 2002 I was without power for 5 days and lived on one of the busiest roads in Greenville! Even with fireplace going, it was in the low 50s in the house! Just a friendly reminder!

 

[beanskip]

I’d recommend some alternate heat sources!! If you have a fireplace, stick up on wood!!
In 2002 I was without power for 5 days and lived on one of the busiest roads in Greenville! Even with fireplace going, it was in the low 50s in the house! Just a friendly reminder!

"Tips for surviving an ice storm" sounds like a good, seperate thread topic with stuff about generator safety, etc.

 

[beanskip]

Both 18z NAM and HRRR coming in a bit warmer ahead of the storm. Of course, lately good early developments have just gone to hell later in the run, so maybe this is a good sign!

 

[weather bubba]

Here is WRAL forecast right now!




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I'm right on that boundary in Wake County between 0.5-1.0 and around 0.5 inches, not that it is going to matter too much.

 

[WxBlue]

Lots of fear mongering going on. Just be prepared the best you can. That's all anyone can do spread the crazy fear that's flying around just makes things worse

Just because you can prepared the best you can do doesn't mean this won't suck badly for several days. Especially if the power goes out with the cold that is following.

 

[NBAcentel]

@NBAcentel are you putting out a call map?

Yessir. First call maps right here. First is ZR, second is sleet. Not enough confidence in snow in our area to make a map, but I’ll probably do one later. I’m on the slightly southern end of forecasts by a smidge, but reason why is because areas just south of GSP/CLT have a longer duration of ZR (first areas to transition) and likely lighter rates time to time for more efficient accumulation, vs areas further north where sleet and heavier rates may cut into accretion a bit. Still looks like a significant, damaging ice storm for CLT/GSP. Could be the worse one since Dec 2002. Only hope here is trending some more colder low levels via lowering heights over the next day to our NE, any confluence helps in driving more of a stronger cold nose

 

[LukeBarrette]

Someone messed up at NWS Blacksburg, snow map doesn't quite line up with physical map LOL

 

[malak05]

And NAM says what CAD in GA?

 

[foothillscrewzone]

And NAM says what CAD in GA?

It's building in still. Posted too soon. 18Z precip shield is slightly south from 12Z

 

[packfan98]

Surprised to see the 12k NAM come in warmer with the cad.

 

[Brandon10]

What is the NAM doing?

 

[beanskip]

Looks like the Baja energy moves east more quickly on this run. CAD either delayed or weaker. Thought for sure after the Euro we were entering a relentlessly strengthening CAD mode.

 

[DustinWx]

Seems like GSP lowered ice totals in their latest winter storm watch

 

[GaWx]

Does anybody know - or know where I can look to find - the last time FFC issued an Ice Storm Warning? However long it’s been, that streak likely ends tomorrow.

—30—

Could be wrong but I want to say 2014

The last widespread moderate to major icestorms in N ATL were in 12/2005 (moderate) and 1/2005 (major). For S and ATL metro as mentioned it was 2/2014.

 

[foothillscrewzone]

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

NAM finally wakes up with the precip this run

 

[foothillscrewzone]

Hi-res NAM probably has a better read on temperatures

 

[foothillscrewzone]

Takes sleet down into NEGA

 

[superjames1992]

Massive changes on the 18z NAM, it's shellacking central NC with a sleetstorm after the dry slot on the 12z run.

 

[GaWx]

I’m quite concerned for an elderly relative in Fayetteville, NC who requires a plug in oxygenator. I’m keeping her updated on the wx.

Any educated guesses as to whether or not that area will likely have widespread power outages? Any responses would be greatly appreciated.
@Webberweather53 since that’s your hometown and you’ve got a great knowledge of their history

 

[beanskip]

Funky run -- colder in the Arklatex, but warmer in CAD region. Seems like a ton of precip still has to move through from way back in Texas and it's already Sunday morning.