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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

Stormsfury said:
This is where we are better in today's standard of information vs 20, 30 years ago.
This is an upper echelon cold air damming scenario event. Once the TRENDS of the cold press continues to be evaluated, the adjustments will be made faster fortunately.

But like in years past, if this goes the way I personally think it goes, this cold press will continue all the way to event start time. There will be people caught off guard but fortunately not like what we've seen in the past like jn the 70s, 80s, 90s or even the 2000s.

This is an anomalously strong cold air damming scenario, and I hope reliable sources will convey that message to the public on awareness of the worst case scenario to be ready like we would in a hurricanes cone of uncertainty. Expect the worst, hope for the best.
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As a physician I fully support this sentiment. Please, everyone, check on your elderly neighbors or family or friends who may be in harms way or not prepared. Make sure folks are aware to contact their doctor for medication refills or other needs TODAY before it gets rough
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
They are prepping worse than Helene here. What are you guys seeing? A lot panic and desperation across the socials. Scary stuff
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I imagine part of that is post-Helene fears. At least here in Augusta nobody really expected it to be nearly as bad as it turned out to be, so people are being very cautious now. At least that is what I am seeing in my area based on how busy the grocery store has been.
 
Does the EPS support the latest adjustments south on the 12z operational? Are the 'means' even more significant or less?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
They are prepping worse than Helene here. What are you guys seeing? A lot panic and desperation across the socials. Scary stuff
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Harris Teeter by NC State was out of milk last night. Wonder what it will be like when I get to MD tomorrow. I plan to really help out my parents shovel (it'll replace the gym for me haha)
 
Google AI model ticks further drier for Raleigh area again. Will be interesting to see how this does...about 0.5" QPF, simliar to the NAM for the overrunning part...still plenty cold though.

I think this would be a nice little sleet event for Raleigh but a much bigger one back too CLT-Greensboro-Winston and north.

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Kidney beans 🫘 with thunder ZR..never thought this was even a weather possibility. An impossible combo
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I am now waiting for the ultimate combo: elevated thunderstorms producing hail which is falling into an environment conducive of sleet resulting in a sleet/hail mix! The ultimate clash of warm and cold weather ice!
 
KyloG said:
Google AI model ticks further drier for Raleigh area again. Will be interesting to see how this does...about 0.5" QPF, simliar to the NAM for the overrunning part...still plenty cold though.

I think this would be a nice little sleet event for Raleigh but a much bigger one back too CLT-Greensboro-Winston and north.

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That model is almost on its own now. Pretty much all others have settled into the 1-2" range (ignoring NAM)
 
KyloG said:
Google AI model ticks further drier for Raleigh area again. Will be interesting to see how this does...about 0.5" QPF, simliar to the NAM for the overrunning part...still plenty cold though.

I think this would be a nice little sleet event for Raleigh but a much bigger one back too CLT-Greensboro-Winston and north.

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This model is losing me now. I had more faith in it but now it's limiting QPF too much. We will have moisture from the gulf and the other models are holding steady at 1" + of QPF. Doesn't make sense to keep supporting it
 
What scares me about this ice storm in nc is how strong the warm nose is.

Normally we can cool the low level cad some enough to avoid freezing rain, but that may not be the case here quite as much. Could be a much tougher battle this time around

In all my years of religiously tracking these winter storms, I have never a warm nose this strong on the models.

I had to go back over 30 years to find an event (Feb 1994) with something comparable.

Not sure how much a drier trend would help us here. My guess is not a lot in the ice/freezing rain department because we’re trading volume of precip for ice accrual efficiency.
 
HailCore said:
I am now waiting for the ultimate combo: elevated thunderstorms producing hail which is falling into an environment conducive of sleet resulting in a sleet/hail mix! The ultimate clash of warm and cold weather ice!
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I would say that is impossible, but if it rains at 19 degrees, anything is possible.
 
Rain Cold said:
We did. The Euro was out to lunch. Doesn't mean we're going to get snow, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if it continued to trend colder and even provide a better front end thump before turning over to sleet. Areas that do not see the bulk of the precipitation fall as sleet are going to be in big, big trouble. Power will be out for days and with the cold behind the storm, roads may be impassable for days. I don't know how people will get medical help who might need it. If people do not have ample food and water stored up, they will be in trouble. The elderly are going to be in trouble. And if 4 inches of sleet falls along with freezing rain, nobody is going anywhere. Temps will barely get above freezing during the day and plummet into perhaps the single digits at night for several days. And then the next system will be coming in. I'm not trying to sound alarmist, but this isn't a 1% chance kind of thing. We are setting the stage for real disaster, the likes of which many haven't seen.
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This is a really sobering thought. Imagine communications will grind to a halt if cell towers lose power and generators run out of fuel. Bad situation…
 
tempo47 said:
Yea they are showing 47 degrees sunday
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If it is 47 degrees and raining, it will be regular rain. If it is <32 degrees and raining, it will be *freezing* rain.

Whether it is freezing rain or rain will be determined by the temperature. They look the same when they’re falling.

And if it’s 32, technically still freezing rain but inefficient accretion esp on roadways.
 
HailCore said:
I am now waiting for the ultimate combo: elevated thunderstorms producing hail which is falling into an environment conducive of sleet resulting in a sleet/hail mix! The ultimate clash of warm and cold weather ice!
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It's happened before in 1990 with McAlester, OK with a thunderstorm with sleet and 1/2" hail with a temp of 13°
 
KyloG said:
Google AI model ticks further drier for Raleigh area again. Will be interesting to see how this does...about 0.5" QPF, simliar to the NAM for the overrunning part...still plenty cold though.

I think this would be a nice little sleet event for Raleigh but a much bigger one back too CLT-Greensboro-Winston and north.

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This looks a bit rough for ATL. >1.25” of QPF and ZR for at least a few hours Sunday.
 
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