Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[ChattaVOL]

We got the northern shift at 12z on the EURO a couple of days ago... I think you are seeing it come the other way now and it will trend this way now

 

[Brandon10]

Wonder what the chances of this sinking further south is....

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

That is a huge shift south in the axis!

More southern B transfer maybe?

Someone post that MSLP trend right before the Atlantic transfer. That will tell the whole story

 

[Windergawx]

WSW just extend south of i-20

 

[TheWeatherDriver]

New NWS briefing for Raleigh.

 

[Mahomeless]

Someone post that MSLP trend right before the Atlantic transfer. That will tell the whole story

Exactly what I was thinking....is the MSLP trend is anything like I am thinking, the shifts aren't done.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Someone post that MSLP trend right before the Atlantic transfer. That will tell the whole story

 

[LukeBarrette]

Dare I say that the Euro looks a lot closer to what the RGEM has...
These are the changes we should of expected when you have such cold air to the north.

 

[iGRXY]

Umm -- weird. By 4pm Euro suggests ATL already up to 44º with a severe storm threat. That's a heck of a CAD erosion... has surface temps already up to 37º by 1pm.

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It’s struggling in the long range with the CAD still. This will continue to come south

 

[atlwx]

And FFC pulled the watch south.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

WSW just extend south of i-20

It seems a lot of offices and pros di** ride the euro til the wheels fall off. Now they are forced to play catch up.

 

[Oconeexman]

Said it before but the RGEM gonna be the model of choice here forCad storm. Has real good track record on thermals imo

 

[atlantasweetie]

Euro with a huge cave. ATL fully in the cross hairs. WSW should be moved south soon

I just received the alert and I'm 8 miles from the Hartsfield-Jackson.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

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yep. Sharpening more than anything

 

[ChattaVOL]

 

[SnowNiner]

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There's your trend! Keeps getting pushed slower and more to the south, leaving the CAD in place longer. Hopefully that continues.

 

[ChattaVOL]

The CAD wrapping up into Chattanooga hasn't happened in a long time, but the ICON and GFS have been showing this...

Euro just got on board as well

 

[TheWeatherDriver]

There's your trend! Keeps getting pushed slower and more to the south, leaving the CAD in place longer. Hopefully that continues.

If it continues we will get more sleet and ice, not a great trend

 

[KyloG]

Is the entire SE going to lose power...

 

[iGRXY]

We are cooked

 

[Tsappfrog20]

If it continues we will get more sleet and ice, not a great trend

Na for us just needs to keep trending so we get more snow and sleet in Raleigh.


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[AlabamaWxWatcher]

This is going to catch many off guard

You would think that would tip the scale to put WSW up for Atlanta and Columbia SC


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Is the entire SE going to lose power...

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Except for BHM!

 

[Mitch West]

CAE in their discussion DECREASED confidence in freezing rain. Man do what??

 

[tarheels2]

You would think that would tip the scale to put WSW up for Atlanta and Columbia SC


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Atlanta is now

 

[Flo]

CAE in their discussion DECREASED confidence in freezing rain. Man do what??

Surely they missed the 12z models lol. What a fail

 

[DavidM]

I applaud the Atlanta area mets that did not change their messaging just because of the recent EURO runs. A good chunk of folks were not living in the Atlanta area during the last major ice storm to affect the city.

 

[J.C.]

Guess the Euro was enough for them to see haha huge expansion
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Its exactly what they were waiting for.

Props to the Icon leading the way for days on this one.

 

[WeatherNC]

I don't think many people have a proper appreciation for the magnitude of what's coming.

This ^^^. It’s at times hard to comprehend after days looking at models, analogs, forecasts, etc. Once its lights out with near constant shotgun blasts outside, the gravity and magnitude of the event (and ones situation) will begin to sink in. Keep in mind cell towers with generator backup usually have 12hrs fuel onsite tops, so have a backup plan on how you will receive information and communicate.

Going to be a Big Dog ice event, generational type for many areas across a wide swath of States I’m afraid. For MBY, kind of rooting for a QPF min from remnant lp tracking through the Apps and Coastal spinning up off the Capes.

 

[bud006]

Does anybody know - or know where I can look to find - the last time FFC issued an Ice Storm Warning? However long it’s been, that streak likely ends tomorrow.

—30—

 

[jackendrickwx]

Still of note, the AIFS continues to tick drier in the face of the rest of the modeling. Going to be interesting to see who wins that one

 

[Mitch West]

Surely they missed the 12z models lol. What a fail

I have a theory that some mets live on a 12 hour lag when it comes to forecasting. Like I understand you don't need to shift your entire forecast off one set of models, but you have to keep up with trends. The warmer trend was Tuesday into yesterday. It doesn't take a freakin rocket scientist to see that it stopped & started trending colder since last night.

 

[Flo]

I have a theory that some mets live on a 12 hour lag when it comes to forecasting. Like I understand you don't need to shift your entire forecast off one set of models, but you have to keep up with trends. The warmer trend was Tuesday into yesterday. It doesn't take a freakin rocket scientist to see that it stopped & started trending colder since last night.

Gandy never wavered. Prob bc he’s retired now and answers to no one.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Does anybody know - or know where I can look to find - the last time FFC issued an Ice Storm Warning? However long it’s been, that streak likely ends tomorrow.

—30—

Could be wrong but I want to say 2014

 

[TigerSnow]

Still of note, the AIFS continues to tick drier in the face of the rest of the modeling. Going to be interesting to see who wins that one

Drier might not necessarily be a bad thing if we trend cooler.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Surely they missed the 12z models lol. What a fail

They posted their discussion just before the 12z Euro happened.

Yeah, I don't think so on what they've posted. At least in the case of my area, I can tell you people are preparing already because people are shook by Helene, but idk about other areas to my east.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Mitch West]

Makes sense.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Drier might not necessarily be a bad thing if we trend cooler.

As @Webberweather53 mentioned somewhere lighter precip will only help CAD stay locked in as well as accrue freezing rain more efficiently. Hopefully it trends dry enough that icing impacts are reduced but I still think most of the CAD zones are going to see steady freezing drizzle at most times for this event.

 

[SnowNiner]

If it continues we will get more sleet and ice, not a great trend

I'm completely fine with sleet for mby, don't want ZR. 2-4 inches of concrete would be a memorable event but not dangerous. I know that leaves many to the south under fire for ZR, but not sure how to change that.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

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Feel like this is a huge underestimation, but I guess they're playing it conservative on amounts right now.