Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

[ChattaVOL]

NW Alabama Ice Storm Warning

Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-
Including the cities of Tuscumbia, Red Bay, Florence, Sheffield,
Muscle Shoals, and Russellville
1104 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM
CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between one
quarter of an inch to one inch.

 

[packfan98]

Crazy high impact event!

 

[StormStalker]

I really wasn’t expecting an ice storm warning here given the models are trending warmer.

 

[KyloG]

This has been a theme with the AI models...pushing the overrunning NW, really only affects Raleigh.

12z AI...it's only about 20 miles from less than .3" of QPF for Raleigh. It still has that N-S band that swings through after but that will definitely either be rain or freezing rain fro Raleigh.




The final band to push through

 

[Ethan80963]

AI GFS was more Baja separation, farther S/SW and less SER from what I can see on Tropical Tidbits

 

[jrips27]

Oh man. Euro is going to come in much colder in the CAD regions. Oh my goodness

 

[jrips27]

Yikes. Caving to the colder models. Running 3-4 degrees colder than 6z run in spots

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Euro with a huge cave. ATL fully in the cross hairs. WSW should be moved south soon

 

[Mitch West]

 

[Oconeexman]

Oh man. Euro is going to come in much colder in the CAD regions. Oh my goodness

How about the storm track and precip? Is it still cut off?

 

[jackendrickwx]

Southward shift of QPF as well from the Euro, and may come in with more of it

 

[NBAcentel]

Euro suddenly got colder with not just the wedge areas but the artic airmass in general

 

[xshare]

Euro with a huge cave. ATL fully in the cross hairs. WSW should be moved south soon

Pivotal hasn't gotten that far yet for me at least.... you might be right but we need to see where the precip goes. Southward shift in cold temps could also be associated with the storm track moving N.

EDIT - you were right. Ouch this run looks catastrophic for the metro.

 

[jrips27]

12z on left, 6z on right. No idea about precipitation

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

12z on left, 6z on right. No idea about precipitation

View attachment 187606

You would think that would tip the scale to put WSW up for Atlanta and Columbia SC


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[Thor]

In reality as frustrating as this week has been watching the models it has played out completely in line with climo as usual. Places seeing maps with 20"s of snow when your yearly average is 3 or 4"s shouldn't be surprised. Feels like we need to post averages and climo alongside these maps sometimes just to keep all of our heads out of the clouds.

Storm trended too far south to really make sense, sucked us all in and then regulated back to something we have seen before and should expect. Nasty looking storm and I hope everyone on here is prepared and helping others prepare. One note on Generators do all your math now and make sure you understand the amperage and loads your cords can handle.

 

[rburrel2]

Complete capitulation by the euro to other models with surface temps. We knew it was coming.

 

[iGRXY]

I know I sounded like I was beating a dead horse but the idea of the EURO was just not right. I know people were dying behind it because it’s the euro but even the best available model isn’t right.

 

[LukeBarrette]

The first part of the system has trended a lot weaker in terms of precipitation.

 

[jackendrickwx]

This is a shift in many ways from the Euro. Earlier precip onset and colder, nods to GFS/CMC. Going to get some snow going in northern NC here

 

[SnowNiner]

Curious though about the storm track. Still running up to ohio? Or did it tick south?

 

[jackendrickwx]

QPF trend:

 

[Packsox03]

Okay I think forecast confidence should now be pretty high. Major ice storm south of I-64 in VA all the way to I-20 in SC/GA. Snow all the way to the Canadian border and rain to the south with severe wx along the Gulf Coast and in FL

 

[KyloG]

Nice to see the Euro pushing that overrunning further south into Raleigh the past few runs...hoping this is sleet.

 

[xshare]

12z on left, 6z on right. No idea about precipitation

View attachment 187606

Yuck. 30º ZR starting 10pm Saturday for ATL. By 4am, heavy ZR at 28º with more on the way.

Not good. Not good at all.

 

[LukeBarrette]

The first part of the system has trended a lot weaker in terms of precipitation.

12z yesterdays run vs todays 12z. Big changes to the west

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Yikes. Caving to the colder models. Running 3-4 degrees colder than 6z run in spots

View attachment 187602

Never a doubt. Like a cheap lawn . Generational broad swath icing event on deck. Pray for sleet. Shambles across the board

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

QPF trend:

View attachment 187611

QPF ticking up across the board overall


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[jackendrickwx]

Don't pay attention to amounts and the sleet map, just watch the corridor movement:

 

[Caesar]

This is a shift in many ways from the Euro. Earlier precip onset and colder, nods to GFS/CMC. Going to get some snow going in northern NC here

If I recall, GFS did a pretty good job with the storm last weekend.

 

[Mitch West]

yep

 

[KyloG]

SV picking up on more snow/sleet further south down to I40 in NC...past few runs trend

 

[SnowNiner]

QPF trend:

View attachment 187611

That is a huge shift south in the axis!

More southern B transfer maybe?

 

[Snowfan]

Metro Atlanta now under a WSW.

 

[Ross]

man i knew something was off and wonky with those euros

 

[CaryWx]

View attachment 187609
View attachment 187613
12z yesterdays run vs todays 12z. Big changes to the west

Beginning to pick up the cad looks like. Deeper cad too when you look just north of wake co.

 

[xshare]

Umm -- weird. By 4pm Euro suggests ATL already up to 44º with a severe storm threat. That's a heck of a CAD erosion... has surface temps already up to 37º by 1pm.



Not sure I buy the warmup but a lot of the damage presumably would have already been done overnight by the 0.5" of ice (FRAM).

 

[KyloG]

HP staying stronger longer...past few runs trend

 

[jackendrickwx]

Its still gonna nuke the CAD on the southern end at the end of the storm. Idiot. You'll figure it out

 

[jrips27]

Guess the Euro was enough for them to see haha huge expansion