• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

LukeBarrette said:
Dare I say that the Euro looks a lot closer to what the RGEM has...
These are the changes we should of expected when you have such cold air to the north.
Click to expand...
We did. The Euro was out to lunch. Doesn't mean we're going to get snow, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if it continued to trend colder and even provide a better front end thump before turning over to sleet. Areas that do not see the bulk of the precipitation fall as sleet are going to be in big, big trouble. Power will be out for days and with the cold behind the storm, roads may be impassable for days. I don't know how people will get medical help who might need it. If people do not have ample food and water stored up, they will be in trouble. The elderly are going to be in trouble. And if 4 inches of sleet falls along with freezing rain, nobody is going anywhere. Temps will barely get above freezing during the day and plummet into perhaps the single digits at night for several days. And then the next system will be coming in. I'm not trying to sound alarmist, but this isn't a 1% chance kind of thing. We are setting the stage for real disaster, the likes of which many haven't seen.
 
jackendrickwx said:
As @Webberweather53 mentioned somewhere lighter precip will only help CAD stay locked in as well as accrue freezing rain more efficiently. Hopefully it trends dry enough that icing impacts are reduced but I still think most of the CAD zones are going to see steady freezing drizzle at most times for this event.
Click to expand...

Also, as you noticed on the new 12 Z, there was no dry slot really compared to 6z


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
rburrel2 said:
It appears models have convection in the northwestern gulf and that’s what’s robbing moisture transport to the Midwest and ultimately giving us more liquid. The ai models aren’t picking up on this.

Who’s correct? No idea.
Click to expand...

I mentioned this Monday evening I think. If it’s angled right it creates an absolute “Fire Hose” effect, if Going out on its on it will rob us


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
It seems a lot of offices and pros di** ride the euro til the wheels fall off. Now they are forced to play catch up.
Click to expand...
the euro trailblazed the north shift and was the first model to show myself as mix by a cycle or two. every model then immediately followed it. even with this current shift, i'm going to be fighting for my life to keep power where two days ago i looked safely all snow. that model definitely got high on its own supply the last few runs but i don't mind the met logic of hitching you wagon to the model that everyone is catching up to. if it keeps shifting south then fair to begin having a different convo
 
Cbmatt2408 said:
If this continues to trend south and west it will catch a lot of people in West Central Georgia and East Alabama off guard. They have all seen higher temps on the forecast and moved on.
Click to expand...
As someone who lives in these areas, unfortunantly, many people have seen the 40s in the Weather Channel forecast and have started to write this one off. Our infrastructure around here is not exactly "prepared" for this type of event. We will see how it plays out when the time comes, however I am worried for many folks around here.
 
Mitch West said:
There is no excuse to be behind. We have all the data in the world right in front of us.
Click to expand...
This is where we are better in today's standard of information vs 20, 30 years ago.
This is an upper echelon cold air damming scenario event. Once the TRENDS of the cold press continues to be evaluated, the adjustments will be made faster fortunately.

But like in years past, if this goes the way I personally think it goes, this cold press will continue all the way to event start time. There will be people caught off guard but fortunately not like what we've seen in the past like jn the 70s, 80s, 90s or even the 2000s.

This is an anomalously strong cold air damming scenario, and I hope reliable sources will convey that message to the public on awareness of the worst case scenario to be ready like we would in a hurricanes cone of uncertainty. Expect the worst, hope for the best.
 
rburrel2 said:
It appears models have convection in the northwestern gulf and that’s what’s robbing moisture transport to the Midwest and ultimately giving us more liquid. The ai models aren’t picking up on this.

Who’s correct? No idea.
Click to expand...
Another interesting point i need to bring up.
The stronger cold press could effectively initiate the transfer sooner as it forces the transference zone further south. (Still have to deal with dryslotting, no matter what). However, if there is a favorable trajectory (in this case SW to NE) in certain circumstances, this moisture transport vector could ENHANCE or be more efficient in helping the transport over atop the wedge and thus effectively having it maintained longer.
 
The general footprints of sleet and freezing rain and overall storm evolution on the 12z CMC look pretty reasonable to me and are in agreement with my forecast from earlier this morning, tho I will inevitably need to tweak it.

The CMC tends to have a cold bias on most normal days, but when it comes to cad oth, it is usually the only global model that I put much stock in once we get to about day 3-3.5 ish.

IMG_7470.png

IMG_7471.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
FEMA disaster
Click to expand...
Far western upstate, NE GA, southern upstate. problems. Think that GEM map Webb posted above may not be too off although probably aggressive on totals. At my house in particular we may sleet just enough to be not as bad but still not great. We've made the prep we need to
 
Webberweather53 said:
The general footprints of sleet and freezing rain and overall storm evolution on the 12z CMC look pretty reasonable to me and are in agreement with my forecast from earlier this morning, tho I will inevitably need to tweak it.

The CMC tends to have a cold bias on most normal days, but when it comes to cad oth, it is usually the only global model that I put much stock in once we get to about day 3-3.5 ish.

View attachment 187640

View attachment 187641
Click to expand...
Good lord this is FRAM? Good lord
 
Webberweather53 said:
The general footprints of sleet and freezing rain and overall storm evolution on the 12z CMC look pretty reasonable to me and are in agreement with my forecast from earlier this morning, tho I will inevitably need to tweak it.

The CMC tends to have a cold bias on most normal days, but when it comes to cad oth, it is usually the only global model that I put much stock in once we get to about day 3-3.5 ish.

View attachment 187640

View attachment 187641
Click to expand...
This is historical if it checks out
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol surprise surprise, the euro sucks with cad.
Click to expand...
I know you're NC primary, but do you think the strength of both the CAD to the East and Midwest High bullying it's way South are going to press the Low a bit further to the South in AL, or is the WAA more likely to win out over extreme N. AL. Seems like a very fine line up here at the moment and respect your thoughts.
 
Allan Huffman’s Map

2284a911df6d59a1c5bf310a00e47055.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top