just watch this thing on modeling, it's slower here versus some other guidance, btw:
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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
If that were to go a lot faster it might help bring western areas back into the mix?
nah, want it slower. need to give time for the trof to neutral tilt instead of helping push it out. that piece i circled in just one part of the picture though; there's a lot more stuff going on up there to push the trof too fast
Man the EPS/Euro is absolutely dialed in to portions of the Panhandle of FL, GA & the low country of SC
somehow both historic and disappointing lol. takes talent to get that combo
Stormlover
Member
No, we want it slower
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
want the lp to the north to go faster and be in south dakota instead of Canada. not a faster moving trough!...that would tilt the trough more negative and help supply northern moisture......thats one of the main features missing that we had over last weekend.
12z WeatherNext with another increase for the Carolinas on the clown map, with minor tick down in GA. 6z on top, 12z bottom
lexxnchloe
Member
Looks like Half of NC is in the 2-4
I would be intrigued to know why its doing this, bc I said before I am wary of both its 2m's and snow output. I suppose more of its members are catching onto further NW and wetter solutions, as its been ticking 850s and 2ms warmer over the last day or so of runs, but I am surprised that is resulting in a notable snow mean increase
HailCore
Member
That is actually still in a reasonable spot for folks in the upstate and ATL areas getting at least some light snow should a ~25-50 mile NW shift happen. Not a bad look when compared to yesterday.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Found some interesting images here. Radar image is from Dec 8 2017. Model is CMC. Given the setup this is not exactly entirely impossible. Snow amount wise very far fetched but seen crazier things happen before. If you look at the rain/snow line. It lines right up where the moisture line is on CMC. FGEN could possibly be underdone even on CMC. More than likely wherever this band sets up there is going to be a decently large snow band on the NW side. Hince the NW ticks.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Are we cherry picking the CMC? What was the euro showing?
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
This isn't cherry picking the CMC this is looking at close analogs in comparison to some models. General trend on every model today besides a couple has been a NW trend. FGEN is most likely being underdone on models. I am not the only one that has been saying this. Models are notorious for underdoing how much slope ascent you actually need for QPF rates. Bottom line here is 00z runs are going to be important as we get more recon sampling today. Side note, CMC was actually the first model late in the trends to show amped up and everyone threw it away because of it.
HailCore
Member
I definitely find it interesting that the CMC, known to have a cold and snowy bias (last year is a good example) that trends back to reality right as we reach short range territory is doing the opposite where it started off cold and dry, then added the moisture, and is now showing the overlap of cold air and moisture instead of doing it the other way around like usual.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
NW trend is likely to continue depending on what data we get tonight from sampling by recon. Hope for the best
The Euro was not suppressed at all.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
rburrel2
Member
Some pretty big positive changes on the hrrr at hr28. Let’s see if it translates.
Makeitsnow
Member
Im in the half to 1 inch area so a 25 mile shift would mean a lot one way or the other. Dancing on a razors edge here and the rest of north central ga
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
HRRR 18z is running right now, we'll see if we see a NW tick by at least verga precip. Initally a less positive tilt. Keep in mind the vort is very strong. We're probably going to see at least some trend with tilting.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
GDOT has some snow plows well north of this line btw as a precaution.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
more grasping at straws but the 15z sref had some snow hits as far north as Birmingham after having zero at 09z. I know we are toast but still searching out of desperation 
It will sometimes foreshadow the man, so maybe we’ll have a better NAM run coming in.
This is a trash model btw
It will sometimes foreshadow the man, so maybe we’ll have a better NAM run coming in.
This is a trash model btw
SimeonNC
Member
long range HRRR doesn't get it done for anyone
so far all rain
HRRR speeds up precip arrival, slows down the cold push, and it's to the SE. Not what the doctor ordered for anybody
The base of the trough in a better position on the 18Z NAM @24 hours. Let's see if it helps a little.
NBAcentel
Member
Looks like we are bucking the SE trend 
This should be better. Right trend...if we can keep this up a few more cycles.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I probably couldn't tell you much even if I had the energy map in front of me, but it looked to me like it was just a frontal passage (the initial rain did trend north). This NAM so far with what I'm looking at isn't progressing as quickly as the HRRR was.
But then, you're picking nits with a model that isn't as good in the LONG range.
rburrel2
Member
Latest sref gives north ga and upstate sc hope.
That’s a big jump west with the spread. Maybe members picking up on magical north side expansion stuff?
That’s a big jump west with the spread. Maybe members picking up on magical north side expansion stuff?
the kicker wave on the new nam is completely different.
should be a better run
should be a better run
Waiting on temps but looks like the NAM has precip up to near Atlanta
nam bringing it back with this run
I don’t really understand people arguing we should throw out the globals in favor of the 48-hr HRRR? HRRR isn’t a great model out towards the end of its run, IMO. Unless it’s improved a lot in recent years? I would still mostly favor globals at this timeframe. I’ll admit a lot of my impressions regarding the HRRR go back a decade back before I moved to Florida in 2016 (since it’s barely snowed here since I moved back, SMH).