anc.py
Member
ICON ticked faster and further west it appears.
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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
ICON ticked faster and further west it appears.
SimeonNC
Member
Looking at some of the soundings for the CLT area, sleet might end up being a factor, which would be cool in a setup like this since mixed precip isn't a huge thing with Miller A's
Oconeexman
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Icon out to 48...all models are very similar to this point with handling the wave. Its the next 24hrs where things differ and change the surface results.
I’m honestly worried just about precip, which, in my area has been drastically less than model forecasted for months!
SegTindo
Member
SimeonNC
Member
I am not completely sure if this freezing layer right after the near warm-nose would be enough for potential sleet if the warm nose ends up stronger than modeled. But it seems that way.
Mahomeless
Member
Normally it plays catch up on moisture feed in these situations. I would watch for an increased moisture fetch on all levels in the next few runs and then see how that plays out at the surface.
SimeonNC
Member
I don't think precip is the worry here.
anc.py
Member
And it appears that the ICON really loves warm sfc temps and just completely kills snow in GA lol
Welp. I guess the NWS already liking the amped scenario cause they have totals up through Sunday.. Swell.
iGRXY
Member
The ICON looks exactly like the name at H5 through 51
mjscott30
Member
I'm driving back to Montgomery from Gulf Shores that morning, so I'm probably in for a messy trip.
Brandon10
Member
ICON is horrible for everyone at the surface. I fear this may be a situation with a near perfect track but rain due to the lack of cold press
GeorgiaGirl
Member
It was fine on temps for the 6z run, but it shifted warmer for 12z.
It is looking very much like a major problem.
ICON trended NW.
That is what's keeping me in the game. Normally when the Euro flexes it muscles, it's because the NAM/GFS are so out to lunch at H5. Here it's really pins and needles.
Brandon10
Member
RGEM is also horrible at the surface.
Euro 6z stuck to its guns with the AIFS/WeatherNext coastal track solution. ICON 12z and Canadian RDPS 12z join it on the same track with snow/rain depending on which model you go with.
So it's really just the GFS and the models based on the GFS (including the NAM) vs literally everyone else. @bouncycorn was saying he believes the GFS data ingestion is just plain wrong which would lead to the discrepancy. Totally possible -- did any of the recent NWS budget cuts reduce some of the gathering capabilities used to provide data to the GFS suite of models?
Does the GFS/NAM side somehow gets this right and literally everyone else has egg on their face? Seems implausible but anything is possible I guess.
NWS's discussions/forecasts seems to be giving a bit of weight to the GFS/NAM side (at least somewhat) but the question is whether that's because it's technically their in-house model or because they truly believe it sees something no other model suite sees.
So it's really just the GFS and the models based on the GFS (including the NAM) vs literally everyone else. @bouncycorn was saying he believes the GFS data ingestion is just plain wrong which would lead to the discrepancy. Totally possible -- did any of the recent NWS budget cuts reduce some of the gathering capabilities used to provide data to the GFS suite of models?
Does the GFS/NAM side somehow gets this right and literally everyone else has egg on their face? Seems implausible but anything is possible I guess.
NWS's discussions/forecasts seems to be giving a bit of weight to the GFS/NAM side (at least somewhat) but the question is whether that's because it's technically their in-house model or because they truly believe it sees something no other model suite sees.
Interesting they ain't buying the Euro solution.
CURRENT SNOW CHANCES:
- The highest chance of at least an inch of snow is only at 40-60% for anyone in the Carolinas currently.
- I don't currently buy the EURO model solution of a coastal snow, but it's still possible.
- I expect models to trend warmer, wetter, and further NW between now and Sunday.
- Ice Is still a possibility for many.
Made this map with what I expect to change in the data in mind
- The highest chance of at least an inch of snow is only at 40-60% for anyone in the Carolinas currently.
- I don't currently buy the EURO model solution of a coastal snow, but it's still possible.
- I expect models to trend warmer, wetter, and further NW between now and Sunday.
- Ice Is still a possibility for many.
Made this map with what I expect to change in the data in mind
Attachments
baroowoofr
Member
Since I already made a gif for it, I thought I would drop it here too. I saw some of y'all drawing some similarities to Dec 2017 so here is the radar loop for that event for comparison:
SimeonNC
Member
Here's my thoughts on the storm for the CLT area for anyone who cares.
Worst Case Scenario(as of right now): Mostly rain with a brief changeover at the end from NW to SE.
Best Case Scenario: 1-3" inches of snow across the metro, obviously less in SE areas and more in NW areas.
Worst Case Scenario(as of right now): Mostly rain with a brief changeover at the end from NW to SE.
Best Case Scenario: 1-3" inches of snow across the metro, obviously less in SE areas and more in NW areas.
Bigedd09
Member
Very unfortunate seeing the RGEM and Icon too warm at the surface. I don’t like that
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I disagree. A complete miss to the east is still quite likely and the worst case scenario
Mahomeless
Member
Honestly, the EURO has been pretty bad over the last couple of winters, especially in this type of situation. Your shorter range models are where you should start to focus your attention at this point.
ducketta27
Member
time to put this in the rear view 
mydoortotheworld
Member
Dec 7 2017 vs NAM’s depiction of this weekend. Pretty similar. As mentioned before lack of 50/50 confluence and a big NE high is really hurting chances of snow to the east of ATL, almost like Dec 17.
The worst case for everyone is the system isn't amped up & the temperature issue remains. Someone has to score.
It's trending towards that in my opinion. That's kinda what the AIFS has been showing consistently.
Bigedd09
Member
Colder than 6z but much less precip.
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That's very true. A good point. The AI guidance has shown that since the beginning.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The latest one backed way off on the idea of an amped solution (and honestly now looks like cold chasing moisture to me).
accu35
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Not for me
ducketta27
Member
Agree... unfortunately... It's really difficult to imagine a mix between the Euro/GFS solutions... If you were to imagine it though, it'd look similar to the latest ICON or the AI models (with widespread temperature issues).
As I said in the banter thread, it would be ideal for areas of the i20 corridor (and truly most of the board) if a solution between the current GFS/Euro were to verify... but it's difficult to see that at this point.... In order for SOMEONE on the board to score, it feels like we are either going to NEED i20 to be south of the rain/snow line (favoring the amped GFS/NAM)... OR i20 to be north of the precip shield (favoring the suppressed Euro) making this a nothing burger for everyone except coastal areas.
You don't wanna see the latest run