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Pattern January Joke

Wild Weather Monger said:
Folks, that was a great NAM run for many. Very similar to the 6Z EURO but poised to bring precip much further west IMO. Here, you can see the 700Mb moisture pooling and is about to overspread much of the SE. We're very close to getting overrunning precip before the pivot on both the NAM and 6Z Euro.View attachment 183238View attachment 183239
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Much better than that image of extremely dry air you shared last night from the NAM.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Once we get the synoptic details pinned down this thing is probably going to shift north and west, and possibly a good bit at that, even down to the 0 hour.

Overrunning events are basically driven by a large-scale warm front aloft “overrunning” a cold low level Arctic air mass. Models just plain suck with warm advection
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Even though I am happy with the trends that the models have been showing during the past 48 hours, I am afraid that the northwest shift you mention will happen and this may become an event for folks in the Western Piedmont and points west in North and South Carolina. I've got my fingers crossed that this shift will not be dramatic and turn Sunday's storm into a App cutter. We are still around 96 hours away from ground zero and a lot can happen between now and then. Here's to hoping my negativity is totally unfounded.
 
Parker said:
Much better than that image of extremely dry air you shared last night from the NAM.
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Indeed. And, while I didn't post it, thermals are quite supportive of mostly snow, assuming adequate precip early on and later as CAA spills into Alabama and Georgia.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Once we get the synoptic details pinned down this thing is probably going to shift north and west, and possibly a good bit at that, even down to the 0 hour.

Overrunning events are basically driven by a large-scale warm front aloft “overrunning” a cold low level Arctic air mass. Models just plain suck with warm advection
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I'm already sweating the warm nose. Are you thinking this could possibly shift to a snow to cold rain scenario or a snow to ice scenario for the Eastern areas? Just wondering because there is so much cold air available with this system.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
My Atlanta folks have to love where we are sitting at this stage. Textbook look for our typical hits.
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Not sure that we can get it that far to the NW at this point. I think inland central-ish parts of NC and SC are in a good spot.
 
tarheels2 said:
How does digging that far west affect the SE?
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I'm not fro (oops NBA lol) but would most likely result in earlier, further west neg tilt, more amplified system. Good for some bad for others
 
LukeBarrette said:
Not sure that we can get it that far to the NW at this point. I think inland central-ish parts of NC and SC are in a good spot.
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Everytime we get hit this same fear gets brought up and then it jumps NW 200 miles. Sure it could happen, but I wouldn’t want to be in the sweet spot right.
 
NBAcentel said:
The base was all the way near New Mexico… that’s why it hadn’t fired anything off yet. This is actually further west then the EC/GFSView attachment 183236
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If you showed me this single frame and asked me “what’s about to happen?” Coastal scraper would be near the bottom of the list just above hurricane and typhoon
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Everytime we get hit this same fear gets brought up and then it jumps NW 200 miles. Sure it could happen, but I wouldn’t want to be in the sweet spot right.
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Would say at the moment, it's probably better to be in the south and eastern areas of the metro than the north and western parts of the metro, much like last year's storms, but of course that could all change.
 
mrdaddyman said:
I'm already sweating the warm nose. Are you thinking this could possibly shift to a snow to cold rain scenario or a snow to ice scenario for the Eastern areas? Just wondering because there is so much cold air available with this system.
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since there's still plenty of run to run changes i think it's impossible to chart precip type corridors at this point. however without a particularly cold high nosing in from the west or via cad the transition zone will be narrow if the bones of this look stay true. northwest nudges are dependent on nudges within the larger longwave pattern and how sharp/neg tilted/robust that shortwave can become and ramp up southerlies/WAA on the east side. despite a lot of storms getting suppressed at this range last few years, this is still a smart wager. just gotta sit back and see
 
anc.py said:
View attachment 183255

Easily more moist than the last run by a mile.
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It’s just not as cold and dry as everyone is giving it credit for. Especially when you get away from the shadow of the mountains. And considering the way models tend to moderate into an event 9/10
 
packfan98 said:
This one?
january_28-29_2014_nc_snowmap.gif
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I remember that one originally per models out ~5 days looking to nail coastal areas like mine with a wintry mess and then doing the typical trending NW and reducing coastal area wintry precip. to a lot lower than models had had to a minor event here.

Comparisons of indices for 1/28-9/2014 to progged 1/18/26:

Index…2014….2026

MJO…...6……….….6
PNA….weak +….mod/strong +
EPO….strong -….very strong -
WPO…neutral……….-
NAO….weak +…neutral to weak +
AO…..strong -…..mod -

So, for those of you who want the NW trend to continue and end up similarly to 2014 (not me obviously), the indices line up pretty similarly to 1/28-8/2014 unfortunately for us deep SE folks and fortunately for ATL-RDU and further NW. The main differences though this time are a stronger +PNA and -EPO (i.e., more impressive W NA ridge) and a -WPO vs neutral then. I don’t know whether or not that would change things much vs the 2014 trend.

Now I’ll show how much stronger the W ridge/E trough couplet is this time vs 2014:

1/28/14 12Z H5 had 564 Washington/Canadian border and 559 Atlanta:
IMG_7080.gif

1/18/26 12Z H5 prog 576 Wash/Can border and 546 Atlanta meaning a much more impressive and sharper W ridge/E couplet this time:
IMG_7083.png
 
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