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Pattern January Joke

I’d rather this Saturday wave die off. It’s got warm nose/downsloping risk written all over it for my area of East Tennessee. It also comes through Saturday morning and I’m gonna end up having to work through it.

Would rather we bundle everything into Sunday and pull a January 28th, 2014
 
it's a cool look. i don't know what i'm rooting for. if we keep that SW trend going with the trough position, i would be a little concerned about our shortwave getting strung out and losing shape. with the trough digging so much you also run the risk of accidentally pumping up a ridge ahead. looking at these ukmet previews coming in (a fine, legitimate weather model) showing a warm qpf bomb makes me think it went in that direction. i think this will be fun to track this and there's less risk of heartbreak than usual (but still on the table)
 
Ross said:
it's a cool look. i don't know what i'm rooting for. if we keep that SW trend going with the trough position, i would be a little concerned about our shortwave getting strung out and losing shape. with the trough digging so much you also run the risk of accidentally pumping up a ridge ahead. looking at these ukmet previews coming in (a fine, legitimate weather model) showing a warm qpf bomb makes me think it went in that direction. i think it will be fun to track this and there's less risk of heartbreak than usual (but still on the table)
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The general setup brings back some memories of 2014 and 2017 with the just unexpected madness last minute. Was thinking maybe something like this would trend but I started losing hope about 30 hours ago or so lol.
 
These are some impressive trends I must say. This all hinges on how much energy can dive into this developing ULL and then how much separation it can attain to pull that trough axis neutral or even negative id if digs deep enough. The ceiling for precip is high and these dynamic setups from a deep upper low don't really show their true self until you're almost there. UKMET is on the upper end, but the trend could continue...
 
Maybe things work like they used to? this is typically the part in the game where we’d been getting jackpotted for 2-3 days with a perfect transfer from Jax to Sav only for models to start showing a transfer up through the midlands. That Ukie popping a surface low tonight off the coast of Jax gets the blood flowing
 
jrips27 said:
👀
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Considering there’s still 4.5 days to go, I’d be surprised based on a combo of climo that says that snow in the deep SE is pretty rare and model biases/trends when no -NAO if the common NW trend doesn’t take my and other deep SE areas out of snow within a few runs. But you never know, which makes these discussions so fascinating.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Maybe things work like they used to? this is typically the part in the game where we’d been getting jackpotted for 2-3 days with a perfect transfer from Jax to Sav only for models to start showing a transfer up through the midlands. That Ukie popping a surface low tonight off the coast of Jax gets the blood flowing
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Feels like a look I haven't seen since God knows how long
 
GaWx said:
Considering there’s still 4.5 days to go, I’d be surprised based on a combo of climo that says that snow in the deep SE is pretty rare and model biases/trends when no -NAO if the common NW trend doesn’t take my and other deep SE areas out of snow within a few runs. But you never know, which makes these discussions so fascinating.
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-NAO is expected to show up shortly. Racing towards it right now. right now we're weak +NAO but teleconnections show us rapidly diving into a -NAO the next few days.
 
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