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Pattern January Joke

While in the end, who knows whether the differences showing up in Canada between models by day will make a difference of note for the weekend system.

The Euro and ICON have introduced yet another SW on the heels of system #2, poised to follow in its footsteps, while the GFS has yet a completely different closed UUL near Hudson Bay sliding eastward.

The point of my post is to point out that with such differences in Canada that have an influence on the PNA ridge and US trough orientation, the final forecast for the weekend is far from settled.
ecmwf_full-500hv-conus-2026011306-120.pngicon-500hv-conus-2026011306-120.pnggfs-500hv-conus-2026011306-120.png
 
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I had to look it up, but the way these short range models are starting to hint for some areas on Thursday kinda reminds me of this one. This event completely started popping up in the last 48 hours and in fact some local mets here in CLT didn’t even forecast it within 12 hours
 
What percentage of time would you say, if you had to guess, do the ultra short range models like the HRRRRr and the RAP wildly overdo QPF at the end of their range. If you had to guess.
 
Rain Cold said:
What percentage of time would you say, if you had to guess, do the ultra short range models like the HRRRRr and the RAP wildly overdo QPF at the end of their range. If you had to guess.
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The RAP is always too cold. Unless it has changed since I last looked at it years ago.
 
dcd68159a26e71eb249578da685df381.gif

NAM 12km trend, 12z run has quite finished yet for the Thursday system. Very thin strip of snow on the western side of the band of precip.


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Mitch West said:
Yo.. Good LAWWWWDView attachment 182882
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Again….. not to be annoying. But NOTICE the placement only. We’re honing in now Short Ranges / EURO / EURO AI all having that same placement amounts will go up over the next 36hrs to a Dusting -2” event for someone jmo


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Chazwin said:
View attachment 182897
I had to look it up, but the way these short range models are starting to hint for some areas on Thursday kinda reminds me of this one. This event completely started popping up in the last 48 hours and in fact some local mets here in CLT didn’t even forecast it within 12 hours
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I remember driving to work that Tuesday morning in shock. I think there may have been talk about the possibility on Amwx but it really was a last minute deal. That was only about 36 hours out from a storm that was supposed to be a much bigger deal for the Charlotte area, but that one ended up a heartbreaker for those of us on the southern fringes.
 
Chazwin said:
View attachment 182897
I had to look it up, but the way these short range models are starting to hint for some areas on Thursday kinda reminds me of this one. This event completely started popping up in the last 48 hours and in fact some local mets here in CLT didn’t even forecast it within 12 hours
Click to expand...
I talk about this one all the time for Northeast Tennessee and literally no one remembers it.

Many local mets went with globals and lowballed the forecast for the 24 hours prior with a dusting to an inch. Short range was showing several inches.

I remember Robert Gamble at WxSouth saying to look out.

That night NWS MRX issued a Winter Weather Advisory in the middle of the night for 2-4” which is bordering WSW criteria here. Mountains got WSW with 3-6”

Woke up the next morning and we were getting 1-2” per hour rates with temperatures in the 20s. Piled up to 4-6” most places in the 2-4” advisory area.

So majority of people woke up that morning expecting a dusting and there was 4-6” of snow. You can imagine the apologies local mets had to make on that one. Twas a horrific day for credibility.

That storm was awesome.
 
trackersacker said:
I talk about this one all the time for Northeast Tennessee and literally no one remembers it.

Many local mets went with globals and lowballed the forecast for the 24 hours prior with a dusting to an inch. Short range was showing several inches.

I remember Robert Gamble at WxSouth saying to look out.

That night NWS MRX issued a Winter Weather Advisory in the middle of the night for 2-4” which is bordering WSW criteria here. Mountains got WSW with 3-6”

Woke up the next morning and we were getting 1-2” per hour rates with temperatures in the 20s. Piled up to 4-6” most places in the 2-4” advisory area.

So majority of people woke up that morning expecting a dusting and there was 4-6” of snow. You can imagine the apologies local mets had to make on that one. Twas a horrific day for credibility.

That storm was awesome.
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Furthermore what was great about that week in NE TN was having 4-6” of snow on the ground and a new Winter Storm Watch issued for the storm coming 36 hours later that dumped another 4-8”.
 
rburrel2 said:
The hrrr and rap are trash out past 24hrs. For entertainment only, don’t get your hopes up.
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Yeah they probably are overselling. It’s time to pay attention to that weekend deal, the NAM is slowing down/further west with the energy out of Canada as well. We might have something going our way, finally
 
We shouldn’t get too bogged down at this point on what models are showing at the surface. The models are probably going to have to reach a “sweet spot” with the digging for the surface to start improving. Even though we are only 5-6 days out on system #2, we have to be looking for good trends. It seems like most of the trends have been good so far this morning.
 
From Don Sutherland at AmericanWx:

Yes, the PNA is far more important to Atlanta's January snowstorms than the NAO. Since 1950, the PNA was positive for 84.2% of Atlanta's 1" or greater snowstorms. The NAO was negative for 63.2% of such storms.

IMG_6977.png

——————
I’ll add that that from Don’s list that these 6 Jan snowstorms were during La Niña:

Dates……PNA…….NAO

1/15-17/1965…+1.191…+0.438
1/6-8/1996…+0.289…-0.640
1/19/2008…+0.430…+0.287
1/9-10/2011…-0.223…-0.524
1/16-17/2018…+0.101…+1.430
1/10/2025…+1.105…-1.208

So, just for the 6 during La Nina:

-5 of the 6 PNAs were >0 and the lowest was only down to -0.223. Avg PNA was +0.5

-In contrast, 3 of the 6 NAOs were positive with one of them strongly positive. The avg NAO was near 0/neutral.
 
rburrel2 said:
The hrrr and rap are trash out past 24hrs. For entertainment only, don’t get your hopes up.
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call me i weenie but i don't think they're too off kilter. aggressive for sure but its not like we're dealing with 2009 era dgex. i think these runs demonstrate the ceiling- possible but things have to break right (i see the hwrf the same way in hurricane season for aggressive runs). these are the models you'd *expect* to be first to the party for a qpf increase

personally i'm having a tough time evaluating how serious to take these storms (i've been dismissive) but you know... there's life. every model has the trough digging a little more with a little more negative tilt. the underlying meteorology makes sense
 
CltNative90 said:
We shouldn’t get too bogged down at this point on what models are showing at the surface. The models are probably going to have to reach a “sweet spot” with the digging for the surface to start improving. Even though we are only 5-6 days out on system #2, we have to be looking for good trends. It seems like most of the trends have been good so far this morning.
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So, what's the sweet spot that we should be looking for? Or in other words, how far SW is this going to have to dig to tap a nice swath of moisture from the gulf? Northern, Central, or Southern TX? I'm thinking central TX would be good, but we've got a way to go. Not sure how far we can get it based on how east the ridge is.

1768319331301.png
 
SnowNiner said:
So, what's the sweet spot that we should be looking for? Or in other words, how far SW is this going to have to dig to tap a nice swath of moisture from the gulf? Northern, Central, or Southern TX? I'm thinking central TX would be good, but we've got a way to go. Not sure how far we can get it based on how east the ridge is.

View attachment 182905
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Icon has gone from St. Louis to central Oklahoma in 4 runs. I just think the upper level trends are a lot more useful at this range with this type of setup than surface depiction. It might reverse course at 12z and start moving the other way, but we’ve seen these things trend more amped in the 11th hour so many times before and we’re nowhere near the 11th hour yet.
 
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