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Pattern January Joke

NCSNOW said:
last frame Canadian storm 2

View attachment 182007
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Of course, the GFS is way better for east Apps folks. But I would take the canadian output in a heartbeat. Would end up being a major sleet storm for many from Atlanta to Norfork. Then we'd be overtaken by a very cold airmass. Winter at its finest. The one thing for certain, we've got things to track the next few days.
 
NCSNOW said:
last frame Canadian storm 2

View attachment 182007
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99/100 That cold angle won’t do it to the east. That cold air is going to have to settle in prior. That’s why a good whiff on storm #1 that winds up offshore, bombs to the NE and pulls high pressure in behind it may be a big help when #2 starts crawling our way
 
FWIW …. Ik every storm is different, but in Feb 2014 didn’t that scenario break off the first piece and on Monday it snowed like Southern NC and Upper SC to the coast then gave more of its energy to the 2nd and the big one came Weds Night into Thursday? I only mention it bc of the systems being 3 days apart as currently depicted. Of course idk the 500 charts ect


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12 GEFS 24 hours ago through 192 had only 2 of 30 members with 0.5”+ SN somewhere in E Carolinas: members 7 and 17 and moreover, neither reached 2” anywhere:
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12z GEFS today through 168 is notably more bullish with three times as many members (6) with 0.5”+ SN somewhere in E Carolinas (members 4, 18, 21, 27, 29, 30) and with half of those 6 reaching 4”+ for the max:

IMG_6876.png
 
packfan98 said:
Looks like the 12 suite of ensembles for the GFS and GFS AI went colder and drier for both systems compared to 6z. We've seen the cold press ease with past systems and give the lows more room to blossom. Still time.
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It was just yesterday that the main concern was boundary layer temps. (still is IMBY) I like the colder trend, and we'll work on either a well-titled vort and/or overrunning later.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
FWIW …. Ik every storm is different, but in Feb 2014 didn’t that scenario break off the first piece and on Monday it snowed like Southern NC and Upper SC to the coast then gave more of its energy to the 2nd and the big one came Weds Night into Thursday? I only mention it bc of the systems being 3 days apart as currently depicted. Of course idk the 500 charts ect


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Charlotte actually saw accumulating snow 3 days in a row with that one, 4 days if you count the trace on 2/10. First system was Tuesday morning and afternoon and mainly hit S of 85. The main system arrived Wednesday late morning and continued overnight transitioning to sleet and freezing drizzle, with the ULL pivoting through Thursday morning topping everything off with a surprise extra few inches of snow.
 
CltNative90 said:
Charlotte actually saw accumulating snow 3 days in a row with that one, 4 days if you count the trace on 2/10. First system was Tuesday morning and afternoon and mainly hit S of 85. The main system arrived Wednesday late morning and continued overnight transitioning to sleet and freezing drizzle, with the ULL pivoting through Thursday morning topping everything off with a surprise extra few inches of snow.
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Remember that vividly on day one of the storm. It snowed all day and struggled to accumulate but it did break through eventually
 
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