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Pattern January Joke

Nothing exciting so far on 12z runs. GFS is the same ole farthead. The GFS AI has went super adult mode on us the last several days & quit being a Winter storm printer so nothing real appealing on that. CMC does show a nice trough next weekend but just gives us the standard NW flow mcflurry stuff. Euro AI upcoming.
 
89c120e794e0d35f13e724e56e654aff.jpg

GEFS continues to make colder changes


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Stevo24 said:
We are beaten

We are beaten and battered around here. Gonna need some legit fantasy runs to bring us back to life.
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I get it. but we ain't no time to wollar around & cry about it. We got to bully the atmosphere & make it stop being an idiot. Got work to do.
 
Coldest post Jan 6th at Chicago on GFS/GEFS thru today’s 12Z:

1/2 12Z +30/+25
1/3 0Z +29/+25
6Z +21/+21
12Z +22/+19



Same for Euro/EPS:

1/2 12Z +22/+22
1/3 0Z -15/+16
1/3 12Z +7/+17
 
packfan98 said:
Remind us again what the numbers represent. I’m a little confused. Thanks.
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The coldest lows on the runs at Chicago after Jan 6th. This is important because the air from Arctic outbreaks that gets into the SE typically travels over the Midwest first. If Chicago is staying mild, it’s going to be very hard for the SE to get that cold, especially for a sustained period. The coldest low at, say RDU, is almost always going to be a fair bit warmer than the coldest low at Chicago due to moderation as the air comes further SE.

I started posting these yesterday at 12Z because they were so mild for Chicago and thus was saying they’d need to evolve sig. colder to give the SE a better chance for a sustained cold period by 1/20. Compared to then, they’ve generally trended colder. We’ll see whether or not this trend continues. Ensemble means are much more important than the ops that far out obviously. I could just stick to those if I wanted to.
 
Mitch West said:
View attachment 181009
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Their analogs are colder than their forecast. I think pattern analogs are best used in a general sense. Sometimes useful, and sometimes they moreso highlight extreme scenarios. They've changed their analog maps and correlations over the past year, and it looks like they are just taking analogs back to 1990. But analogs seen here are from Jan 2009, Jan 2025, and Jan 2022, all which were chilly with wintry opportunities. Possible this Jan too, but this is evolving of course and reasons it could break either way for us IMO (good or bad)

For their forecast, they used:
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today's 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 35% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11

Jan 3 Analogs.png
 
GaWx said:
The coldest lows on the runs at Chicago after Jan 6th. This is important because the air from Arctic outbreaks that gets into the SE typically travels over the Midwest first. If Chicago is staying mild, it’s going to be very hard for the SE to get that cold, especially for a sustained period. The coldest low at, say RDU, is almost always going to be a fair bit warmer than the coldest low at Chicago due to moderation as the air comes further SE.

I started posting these yesterday at 12Z because they were so mild for Chicago and thus was saying they’d need to evolve sig. colder to give the SE a better chance for a sustained cold period by 1/20. Compared to then, they’ve generally trended colder. We’ll see whether or not this trend continues. Ensemble means are much more important than the ops that far out obviously. I could just stick to those if I wanted to.
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Thanks. For clarification what does this mean?

1/3 0Z -15/+16

The lowest temperature on that run of the Euro was -15 but the lowest temperature after January 6th on that run of the EPS was +16?
 
griteater said:
Their analogs are colder than their forecast. I think pattern analogs are best used in a general sense. Sometimes useful, and sometimes they moreso highlight extreme scenarios. They've changed their analog maps and correlations over the past year, and it looks like they are just taking analogs back to 1990. But analogs seen here are from Jan 2009, Jan 2025, and Jan 2022, all which were chilly with wintry opportunities. Possible this Jan too, but this is evolving of course and reasons it could break either way for us IMO (good or bad)

For their forecast, they used:
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today's 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 35% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11

View attachment 181011
Click to expand...
They don’t use the better performing/verifying ai means yet? That’s interesting
 
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