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Pattern January Joke

Mitch West said:
I mean I don't have really any good news this morning. The runs overnight were worse than the runs overnight the night before. It's honestly ridiculous how much they flipped with what the Euro did with the storm signal at the day 9-11 range. Personally, I don't give a rip about that timeframe. It can work out for many on here, but it just screams Mid Atlantic/Southern Apps potential into the Northeast.

What I don't want to lose is the "beyond" timeframe (Mid month into late January). I mentioned yesterday about my concern with the cold dropping to far West. @Brent would be a big fan of this, but 99% of the board would not. You can see small signs at it here & there. The next worry I have is if the cold drops South enough to link up with a waking up Southern Jet. The 00z EPS is not as good as the last couple ones. The GEFS AI probably has the best look & the GEFS is dropping cold West (it hasn't finished running yet). It doesn't mean the cold wouldn't eventually come East if that is the route it took.

The good news is that there is a pretty high signal for a lot of cold air dropping down at the mid to late month timeframe. I mean the signal is very strong for this on all guidance.

But I tell ya, the rug pull overnight on that day 9-11 storm for EVERYBODY is wild. Lol i am betting it returns though.
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It’s amazing how every model goes poorly every single overnight. Well except for the ICON which held fairly steady within its timeframe.
 
I really don't expect anything here of a noteworthy nature until after the 15th. What you saw in the overnight runs was how hard of a time a pattern change is for them to catch on to until very late. Now on those awful overnights, you see a progressive pattern being pushed too quickly (IMO) that could go either way still, but if the destruction of the block and trough going into the west is accurate, I don't see how we get anything until late month, (Jan) possibly. Let's see what the 12Z shows in order to see if we have a developing trend, or just models on crack at night.
 
Feels like every other year honestly. We have a winter storm that’s there for a couple days, morale is up, vibes are good and then *poof*. After that we spend the next several days clawing back into something that’s workable. Except this isn’t a storm we just lost. It’s an entire pattern. We’re gonna need that -EPO I think. Good luck everybody. Still early
 
James Spann posted this on X to show that over the next 15 days, the probability of 1" snow in AL was 0%.

I can't figure out why people use these maps this way. The model will run again in a few hours, and it might very show a probability of 30% for 1" of snow in AL. I've seen this a lot.

So if that happens, was the probability of the first run actually 0%?

I don't understand why this tool is any more useful when used over a long period of time than a snow map, particularly when he used it in the way that he did (which is a quite common practice).

What am I missing?

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Tsappfrog20 said:
Allan agrees with you all that it is looking less likely from the 8-10 timeframe window but truly believes that the pattern flips around the 15 and we have a cold and stormy pattern set up


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Yeh that's what I am saying. Call it kicking the can.. Idc, but the mid month to late month timeframe is where it's at. If we kick that can, then yeh.. I don't have any faith in February. That month sucks.
 
Rain Cold said:
James Spann posted this on X to show that over the next 15 days, the probability of 1" snow in AL was 0%.

I can't figure out why people use these maps this way. The model will run again in a few hours, and it might very show a probability of 30% for 1" of snow in AL. I've seen this a lot.

So if that happens, was the probability of the first run actually 0%?

I don't understand why this tool is any more useful when used over a long period of time than a snow map, particularly when he used it in the way that he did (which is a quite common practice).

What am I missing?

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Goodmorning to everybody except this guy..

Spann probably
 
I think the take away for me is, we're 2 weeks out until our good pattern establishes. It's taking that long for the pacific to shake up in our favor. For the next 2 weeks, we've got Greenland ridging that may or may not keep us cool/cold based on whether or not we can wedge with a 50/50 low.

During this time however the pacific is indeed changing as discussed (praises!! lol). Mid January, the below still looks good to me. Trough east of Hawaii, ridging up the west coast into AK, blocking much of the pole, a trough generally in the east, with a split flow. Will that hold, I don't know. Hopefully so, but the fact that the pacific is shaking up at the least is great news to me. And BAM's on our side so there's that (until maybe tomorrow lol).

Next 2 weeks though I think we all just need to wait, as we normally like to do. At least there's light at the end of this AK vortex tunnel.

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Even out here yeah I'm not really convinced about the first timeframe. I think it's gonna be later

The signal for the 9th or whatever has always just been a few members here and there. Not that impressive. It was usually 1 or 2 big ones skewing it with a lot of nothing members
 
MichaelJ said:
I really don't expect anything here of a noteworthy nature until after the 15th. What you saw in the overnight runs was how hard of a time a pattern change is for them to catch on to until very late. Now on those awful overnights, you see a progressive pattern being pushed too quickly (IMO) that could go either way still, but if the destruction of the block and trough going into the west is accurate, I don't see how we get anything until late month, (Jan) possibly. Let's see what the 12Z shows in order to see if we have a developing trend, or just models on crack at night.
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Good ole JB been saying this for over a week now on his videos. Said nothing until after mid month then should get interesting. We shall see
 
Chazwin said:
It’s amazing how every model goes poorly every single overnight. Well except for the ICON which held fairly steady within its timefram
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packfan98 said:
BAM says to CALM DOWN! Great video that lays out the evolution of the pattern.
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Its just one 00z run, we are still nearly 10+ days from any potential storm systems.

It can easily trend back the other way later today even.
 
Ksnow33 said:
Hence the word major winter storm there have been some small events since but very few have seen any snow since 2021 in those months
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Do not take the troll bait. Ignore those post and you'll thank me later
 
My 2 cents is that after the change in the pacific shuffle we do see a good pattern. However, like most pattern changes, it is usually not as epic as the pattern portrayed on most of the runs yesterday. Almost every winter, the perfect pattern is displayed repeatedly in the ensembles, but never quite materializes. There is a reason these epic patterns are rare.
 
There are a few people on this board that know me personally like Big Frosty and Powerstroke. I’m always trying finding a little bit of hope for snow and I admit I’m a snow fan!

But if we are being honest here I don’t see a single sign we are going to be seeing winter weather other than the mountains. And when models start down the road of showing a warmer pattern and flip flopping it’s 90% of time going to be to the warm side. Hope , I’m wrong and eating crow.
 
Morning thoughts. There is no perfect pattern for us. It never all aligns. Embrace it! Some of the biggest storms have come from the dumbest setups. With that said, the upper level pattern still looks like it’s setting up for a great stretch. Don’t let last night’s model runs distract you from the fact that the models are ASS. They quite literally suck. Every single one of them. Anything past 4 days at this juncture shouldn’t include cliff diving. Heck we were supposed to be golfing right now with an endless torch the likes of which the east coast has never seen but I have a fire rolling and a low near 20.
 
Ksnow33 said:
Most of the western half of NC hasn't had a major winter storm in February or March since 2014...
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Agreed. Last time SC saw anything notable as well was in 2014… (besides that extreme east/coastal storm last year - which panned out mostly east of I95).


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This was Allan’s January thoughts
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The key is what’s going on in the tropical Pacific, the tropical convection looks to move into the favorable phases by mid January. Eric mentioned about the -EPO and how it will get established later along with the +PNA and some blocking over Greenland. Also, the SPV will continue to be in a disturbed, stretched wobbling state in mid January. The major flip with the SPV forecast, the Euro colder change in the weeklies (that was a big change btw), and what the past analogs are telling us from previous years where we had an early SSWE and the change that happened in December/January, I’m not ready to jump off the cliff. These models have been awful performing here lately. These colder trends in the week 2 periods have been nuts and doesn’t look like that’s going to change imo. So, I’m really optimistic of where we are headed especially by mid-late January.


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Tsappfrog20 said:
This was Allan’s January thoughts
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That looks alot like the --WPO/+EPO/+TNH pattern from early December. I hope we get a little better cold trajectory with +PNA ridging mid month into the center of the conus, not just the NE. Maybe that's combination of both halves of the month though.
 
Rain Cold said:
James Spann posted this on X to show that over the next 15 days, the probability of 1" snow in AL was 0%.

I can't figure out why people use these maps this way. The model will run again in a few hours, and it might very show a probability of 30% for 1" of snow in AL. I've seen this a lot.

So if that happens, was the probability of the first run actually 0%?

I don't understand why this tool is any more useful when used over a long period of time than a snow map, particularly when he used it in the way that he did (which is a quite common practice).

What am I missing?

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He’s subpar when it comes to winter weather.
 
Pilotwx said:
There are a few people on this board that know me personally like Big Frosty and Powerstroke. I’m always trying finding a little bit of hope for snow and I admit I’m a snow fan!

But if we are being honest here I don’t see a single sign we are going to be seeing winter weather other than the mountains. And when models start down the road of showing a warmer pattern and flip flopping it’s 90% of time going to be to the warm side. Hope , I’m wrong and eating crow.
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How would you like your crow served Sir? I'll send you a plate with some taters and yams by Jan. 31st. lol
BTW- That BAM video is excellent this morning, give it a watch... Cold 23.7 this morning
 
Rain Cold said:
James Spann posted this on X to show that over the next 15 days, the probability of 1" snow in AL was 0%.

I can't figure out why people use these maps this way. The model will run again in a few hours, and it might very show a probability of 30% for 1" of snow in AL. I've seen this a lot.

So if that happens, was the probability of the first run actually 0%?

I don't understand why this tool is any more useful when used over a long period of time than a snow map, particularly when he used it in the way that he did (which is a quite common practice).

What am I missing?

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Click to expand...

i think mets do this because:

1. the public prefers the specific number (numbers don't lie etc) to vague conditional statements

2. when you say "just a model, NOT a forecast", it shirks accountability off you if the model is wrong while you still have a claim to "being early" if the model is right

3. not very labor intensive. takes 5 minutes to post this

that's really it
 
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