Problem is that the snow meter has been as reliable as a Fiat this winter. But noted
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
There's a strong case to make about how this pattern could transition to too suppressive and cold later on but carts and horses
we miss you buddy!
NBAcentel
Member
Icon starting out nicely, can see the flow getting backed up under the block and a shortwave emerging in the SW 
NBAcentel
Member
The -NAO is retrograding faster this AIFS run into Canadaā¦ might see something big here 
Just saying the way this is likely to evolve is going to dump a big cold trough in the US unless things fall apart. That likely wouldn't be until the 1/15-20 period
NBAcentel
Member
Looks like the GFSAI is probably gonna be perhaps a clipper, energy still isnāt digging at a good enough angle, even with a sharper western ridge
trackersacker
Member
ducketta27
Member
hot rain
NBAcentel
Member
I canāt remember the last time nighttime runs were good 
NBAcentel
Member
Looks like climo regions might still get something this run due to some wedging
Yeah itās a gross CAD wedge set up
GFS is all over the place and destroys the block. Canāt say Iām concerned until we see it consistently/from other models
NBAcentel
Member
Welp so far the models is banter thread fuel. Still not far off though. Not discouraged, donāt buy the GFS eroding the -NAO so quickly
garden variety gfs buzzkill run, we always have a few of these
Block is gone because it completely lost the east coast trough that was feeding it. It was like āoh nevermindā then it trapped the ridge/block east of the little squiggly blue elongated wave in the northern Atlantic. Ok yeah thanks
NBAcentel
Member
CMC isnt terrible but kinda stresses grits point earlier of needing a ridge spike out west. Unsuccessful digging this run due to a more washed out western ridge 
GFS went from East coast trough of the year to squiggly S shape nothingburger trough off the coast of Newfoundland in 3 model cycles
trackersacker
Member
The overnight bad batch strikes again.
Onto the Euro
Onto the Euro
NBAcentel
Member
GEFS not looking to bad
NOTHING the GFS shows, will I take seriously!!! Until the Euro goes toward the GFS Oh, which runs though 12z, 00z, 18z, 06z? It's just laughable! It will be right, though in the end, someone will say, because it has shown just about every solution. lol
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NBAcentel
Member
Mean is decent but itās more so from a few big dogs 
Brutal changes on the Euro. We suck again
NBAcentel
Member
Horrific 
How did we go from a black hole PV lobe over the NE to massive ridging in one run? Not going to get super hung up on one set of runs but wow that was a gross 0z suite
Well, there should be some interesting tweets in the morning. lol 
28 degrees blustry out!!!
EDIT: Dang, I hate this hobby, sometimes...
28 degrees blustry out!!!EDIT: Dang, I hate this hobby, sometimes...
J1C1111
Member
These models runs are the worst I've ever seen. There is absolutely no consistency from day to day. I still wouldn't count anything out the second week of January. We still could be sitting pretty.
Boys, it's sad when the CFS has nothing wintry the entire run in the SE, that's through Jan. 30th smh
NBAcentel
Member
trackersacker
Member
I think the W coast trough is a little too far East here!?
Bruh
packfan98
Moderator
At least thereās blocking on the 6z gfsā¦
I mean I don't have really any good news this morning. The runs overnight were worse than the runs overnight the night before. It's honestly ridiculous how much they flipped with what the Euro did with the storm signal at the day 9-11 range. Personally, I don't give a rip about that timeframe. It can work out for many on here, but it just screams Mid Atlantic/Southern Apps potential into the Northeast.
What I don't want to lose is the "beyond" timeframe (Mid month into late January). I mentioned yesterday about my concern with the cold dropping to far West. @Brent would be a big fan of this, but 99% of the board would not. You can see small signs at it here & there. The next worry I have is if the cold drops South enough to link up with a waking up Southern Jet. The 00z EPS is not as good as the last couple ones. The GEFS AI probably has the best look & the GEFS is dropping cold West (it hasn't finished running yet). It doesn't mean the cold wouldn't eventually come East if that is the route it took.
The good news is that there is a pretty high signal for a lot of cold air dropping down at the mid to late month timeframe. I mean the signal is very strong for this on all guidance.
But I tell ya, the rug pull overnight on that day 9-11 storm for EVERYBODY is wild. Lol i am betting it returns though.
What I don't want to lose is the "beyond" timeframe (Mid month into late January). I mentioned yesterday about my concern with the cold dropping to far West. @Brent would be a big fan of this, but 99% of the board would not. You can see small signs at it here & there. The next worry I have is if the cold drops South enough to link up with a waking up Southern Jet. The 00z EPS is not as good as the last couple ones. The GEFS AI probably has the best look & the GEFS is dropping cold West (it hasn't finished running yet). It doesn't mean the cold wouldn't eventually come East if that is the route it took.
The good news is that there is a pretty high signal for a lot of cold air dropping down at the mid to late month timeframe. I mean the signal is very strong for this on all guidance.
But I tell ya, the rug pull overnight on that day 9-11 storm for EVERYBODY is wild. Lol i am betting it returns though.