Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

[Rain Cold]

Ahahaha BUST

 

[packfan98]

Thank you!
1. Sig. colder 12/29-1/5 vs yesterday but we already knew that. Two days ago, they had solidly AN in the SE. Todays has NN to a little BN for that week! Tomorrow’s may be even colder.

2. The rest of the weeks are still mainly AN but not really torchy. However, with them recently struggling with 12/29-1/5, I suspect that colder changes will occur as we get closer to each week. That’s especially the case if the Jan 2022 analog and other analogs with a +PNA Jan following a -PNA Dec during -ENSO end up being a good guide and a switch to a +PNA ends up occuring. That’s also considering the likelihood of a -WPO in Jan due to the strong Dec -WPO.

Thanks. That’s what I was seeing too, but I hadn’t dove into the data or been following them closely like you have been. Encouraging trends.

 

[Mitch West]

CPC says nah lmaooo

 

[GaWx]

CPC says nah lmaooo
View attachment 179570

Yep, that’s a notable colder signal than the prior outlook for the SE and NE! No surprise. It’s likely going to cool more tomorrow.

To show how much it changed, this is from just yesterday:

 

[iGRXY]

A wedge killing a prolonged torch in the medium range? A tale old as time

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Obviously overdone as per usual with the CMC, but still.

 

[Stormdoc]

Another example of models catching up. GFS now with deeper trough, also centered further west

 

[Rain Cold]

Lol that's a lot more than a weak wedge. It's half the dang country!

View attachment 179574
Another example of models catching up. GFS now with deeper trough, also centered further west

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

shock and awe

 

[Tarheelwx]

The feature off of San Diego needs to move on across.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Yep, that’s a notable colder signal than the prior outlook for the SE and NE! No surprise. It’s likely going to cool more tomorrow.

To show how much it changed, this is from just yesterday:

View attachment 179571

Well I guess today's 6-10 day outlook is cooler because December 27 is no longer included, and December 27 is going to be very warm.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The feature off of San Diego needs to move on across.

It did and my power is out for 6-8 weeks on an alternate timeline

 

[GaWx]

The MJO’s 3rd phase 8 period of the month ended on 12/20, when it went into phase 7.

So far this month there have been three phase 8 periods:

- Dec 3-7
- Dec 15
- Dec 17-19

Will there be more?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Sheesh ILM

 

[trackersacker]

The MJO’s 3rd phase 8 period of the month ended on 12/20, when it went into phase 7.

So far this month there have been three phase 8 periods:

- Dec 3-7
- Dec 15
- Dec 17-19

Will there be more?

The fact that we’ve had this much phase 8 and no real reward in the upper south is criminal and I’ll never not be mad about it

 

[SENC]

Sheesh ILM View attachment 179597

overview link---> https://www.weather.gov/mhx/Dec231989EventReview

AND..

Christmas Coastal Snowstorm: December 22-24, 1989

I was 26 then.. Living in Wilmington..

 

[NCSNOW]

MV reporting that the Sierra Nevada Rang gonna get 150+ inches of snow over the next 5 days.