CMC ensemble only one being an idiot. 
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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NEGaweather
Member
Here’s why the outlier 0Z Euro (with hardly any EPS support) had the big SE winter storm 12/30-1: you can already see the cutoff in the SW US at 168 on the 0Z whereas the 12Z at 156 has nothing even close to that separate H5 feature:
What would cause the cutoff to show back up?
dsaur
Member
Thanks, I didn't think it seemed like climo would allow that unless there was some cosmic aberration, lol. My lowest low a few years back was 23, but it didn't rain. I had a 19 the other night, but it didn't rain. I still think rain, not cold is the deciding factor in deep south storms. Almost as important is timing. Then there is low placement, lol, oh, and waa, and wind direction. High placement, reinforcing cold. The jets, and on and on. I think we need more elevation down here. Maybe a new mountain range.
NBAcentel
Member
A violent comeback
It’s pretty likely fictitious. So, I doubt it does in a similar way. But you never know.
Yeah but why can’t it be true. Why is it not common to have a bowling ball coming through?
Actually, the 0Z Euro winter storm isn’t from a bowling ball, alone, because there’s also a Miller A sfc low.
The only pure upper low back to at least 1950 with no accompanying sfc low I could find when looking at old maps that produced a multi-inch ATL snow was 3/1/2009!
I'm still aggravated that storm didn't come in overnight. Ole sol stole a foot of snow from me.
Surface trend as of 0Z 12/29 on last 3 EPS supports colder trend for 12/29-31 fwiw, but it doesn’t support a snow storm. No 12Z EPS members have a synoptic scale SE snowstorm as this would be a mainly dry cold shot per the EPS. Cold shots are often dry anyway. So, that would be no surprise at all. I’m hoping for the cold shot to verify.
Movement in one direction is the key, and the movement in this timeframe is for colder over warmer. Hopefully energy works out, but who knows.
Maybe you can explain this. Why would it have shown a sfc low for a few runs and then it’s gone. You would think if it had it in a few runs then there’s gotta be some ingredient in the “algorithm” that could still make it a possibility. I guess what I really want to know is why can’t they ever latch on to an event and then it just freaking happen lol
Twister
Member
Well it saw something or it would not have spit it out. It's still 9 days out so absolutely No one has a clue what could happen by years end.
Because the atmosphere is extremely complex and model initialization input is but a minuscule % of the entire atmosphere.
Give me the cold, and then we'll work on a storm.
There is energy in the flow. And sometimes, usually, in fact, a subtle difference in the pattern or the placement of a key feature makes the difference between a storm and no storm. Over-analyzing the specifics of a 9 day away storm is not a very productive endeavor.
I know. I just never understand why almost always the storm disappears and doesn’t come back. You would think it would even out between the ones that do and don’t. And maybe it does but it just always feels like it doesn’t lol.