Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

[Mitch West]

CMC ensemble only one being an idiot.

 

[NEGaweather]

12z Euro. I am telling yall... We have to bully the atmosphere. Some of yall wanna sit around & whine, but you got to force this into existence. Literally grab the ridge by the throat & squeeze the life out of it.View attachment 179473

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[GaWx]

Here’s why the outlier 0Z Euro (with hardly any EPS support) had the big SE winter storm 12/30-1: you can already see the cutoff in the SW US at 168 on the 0Z whereas the 12Z at 156 has nothing even close to that separate H5 feature:

 

[Stevo24]

Here’s why the outlier 0Z Euro (with hardly any EPS support) had the big SE winter storm 12/30-1: you can already see the cutoff in the SW US at 168 on the 0Z whereas the 12Z at 156 has nothing even close to that separate H5 feature:
View attachment 179478

What would cause the cutoff to show back up?

 

[dsaur]

Not in Atlanta. Highest lowest of Nov-Mar has been a few with 25.

Thanks, I didn't think it seemed like climo would allow that unless there was some cosmic aberration, lol. My lowest low a few years back was 23, but it didn't rain. I had a 19 the other night, but it didn't rain. I still think rain, not cold is the deciding factor in deep south storms. Almost as important is timing. Then there is low placement, lol, oh, and waa, and wind direction. High placement, reinforcing cold. The jets, and on and on. I think we need more elevation down here. Maybe a new mountain range.

 

[GaWx]

Degree of 12Z Euro cold for 12/29 PM is pretty big outlier right now: so caution advised as even cold-biased CMC isn’t as cold

Euro


GFS


CMC

 

[Mitch West]

 

[NBAcentel]

 

[Mitch West]

View attachment 179484View attachment 179485

A violent comeback

 

[GaWx]

What would cause the cutoff to show back up?

It’s pretty likely fictitious. So, I doubt it does in a similar way. But you never know.

 

[Stevo24]

It’s pretty likely fictitious. So, I doubt it does in a similar way. But you never know.

Yeah but why can’t it be true. Why is it not common to have a bowling ball coming through?

 

[GaWx]

Yeah but why can’t it be true. Why is it not common to have a bowling ball coming through?

Actually, the 0Z Euro winter storm isn’t from a bowling ball, alone, because there’s also a Miller A sfc low.

The only pure upper low back to at least 1950 with no accompanying sfc low I could find when looking at old maps that produced a multi-inch ATL snow was 3/1/2009!

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Actually, the 0Z Euro winter storm isn’t from a bowling ball, alone, because there’s also a Miller A sfc low.

The only pure upper low back to at least 1950 with no accompanying sfc low I could find when looking at old maps that produced a multi-inch ATL snow was 3/1/2009!

I'm still aggravated that storm didn't come in overnight. Ole sol stole a foot of snow from me.

 

[GaWx]

Surface trend as of 0Z 12/29 on last 3 EPS supports colder trend for 12/29-31 fwiw, but it doesn’t support a snow storm. No 12Z EPS members have a synoptic scale SE snowstorm as this would be a mainly dry cold shot per the EPS. Cold shots are often dry anyway. So, that would be no surprise at all. I’m hoping for the cold shot to verify.

 

[Mitch West]

Surface trend as of 0Z 12/29 on last 3 EPS supports colder trend for 12/29-31 fwiw, but it doesn’t support a snow storm. No 12Z EPS members have a synoptic scale SE snowstorm as this would be a mainly dry cold shot per the EPS. Cold shots are often dry anyway. So, that would be no surprise at all. I’m hoping for the cold shot to verify.
View attachment 179488

Movement in one direction is the key, and the movement in this timeframe is for colder over warmer. Hopefully energy works out, but who knows.

 

[Stevo24]

Actually, the 0Z Euro winter storm isn’t from a bowling ball, alone, because there’s also a Miller A sfc low.

The only pure upper low back to at least 1950 with no accompanying sfc low I could find when looking at old maps that produced a multi-inch ATL snow was 3/1/2009!

Maybe you can explain this. Why would it have shown a sfc low for a few runs and then it’s gone. You would think if it had it in a few runs then there’s gotta be some ingredient in the “algorithm” that could still make it a possibility. I guess what I really want to know is why can’t they ever latch on to an event and then it just freaking happen lol

 

[Twister]

Maybe you can explain this. Why would it have shown a sfc low for a few runs and then it’s gone. You would think if it had it in a few runs then there’s gotta be some ingredient in the “algorithm” that could still make it a possibility. I guess what I really want to know is why can’t they ever latch on to an event and then it just freaking happen lol

Well it saw something or it would not have spit it out. It's still 9 days out so absolutely No one has a clue what could happen by years end.

 

[GaWx]

Maybe you can explain this. Why would it have shown a sfc low for a few runs and then it’s gone. You would think if it had it in a few runs then there’s gotta be some ingredient in the “algorithm” that could still make it a possibility. I guess what I really want to know is why can’t they ever latch on to an event and then it just freaking happen lol

Because the atmosphere is extremely complex and model initialization input is but a minuscule % of the entire atmosphere.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Surface trend as of 0Z 12/29 on last 3 EPS supports colder trend for 12/29-31 fwiw, but it doesn’t support a snow storm. No 12Z EPS members have a synoptic scale SE snowstorm as this would be a mainly dry cold shot per the EPS. Cold shots are often dry anyway. So, that would be no surprise at all. I’m hoping for the cold shot to verify.
View attachment 179488

Give me the cold, and then we'll work on a storm.

 

[Rain Cold]

Maybe you can explain this. Why would it have shown a sfc low for a few runs and then it’s gone. You would think if it had it in a few runs then there’s gotta be some ingredient in the “algorithm” that could still make it a possibility. I guess what I really want to know is why can’t they ever latch on to an event and then it just freaking happen lol

There is energy in the flow. And sometimes, usually, in fact, a subtle difference in the pattern or the placement of a key feature makes the difference between a storm and no storm. Over-analyzing the specifics of a 9 day away storm is not a very productive endeavor.

 

[Stevo24]

There is energy in the flow. And sometimes, usually, in fact, a subtle difference in the pattern or the placement of a key feature makes the difference between a storm and no storm. Over-analyzing the specifics of a 9 day away storm is not a very productive endeavor.

I know. I just never understand why almost always the storm disappears and doesn’t come back. You would think it would even out between the ones that do and don’t. And maybe it does but it just always feels like it doesn’t lol.

 

[Webberweather53]

I’m not a fan of banking on a winter storm to show up on the tail end of a conus torch pattern.

 

[FoothillsWX]

I’m not a fan of banking on a winter storm to show up on the tail end of a conus torch pattern.

Broke: a storm at the tail end of a warm pattern

Woke: a storm at the front end of a cold pattern

 

[GaStorm]

Actually, the 0Z Euro winter storm isn’t from a bowling ball, alone, because there’s also a Miller A sfc low.

The only pure upper low back to at least 1950 with no accompanying sfc low I could find when looking at old maps that produced a multi-inch ATL snow was 3/1/2009!

I would question any model showing a bowling ball look this early. From what I remember that usually takes place in February and March but it's been a while since anything like that has happened

 

[Bham 99]

Thanks, I didn't think it seemed like climo would allow that unless there was some cosmic aberration, lol. My lowest low a few years back was 23, but it didn't rain. I had a 19 the other night, but it didn't rain. I still think rain, not cold is the deciding factor in deep south storms. Almost as important is timing. Then there is low placement, lol, oh, and waa, and wind direction. High placement, reinforcing cold. The jets, and on and on. I think we need more elevation down here. Maybe a new mountain range.

Part of the problem is La Nina are typically dryer, hence less storm systems to come south, less chance of snow

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Part of the problem is La Nina are typically dryer, hence less storm systems to come south, less chance of snow

yeah. Need some split flow. The thing is you can sometimes sneak some some southern stream energy through at times. Doesn’t always take much. Just need it to meet some energy diving out of the north. Timing. I believe we had an event in 2017 that was like this. Popped off east of the mountains. Maybe from NE GA and points NE from there. Not a huge event but not bad either. Of course this would require the PNA to cooperate at some point