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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 šŸŽ„ ā„ļø

Maybe the hope is that the mega ridge modeled up around AK and into the North Pacific could be looked at as a wild card. A wobble here or there is going to make a massive difference downstream. The unfortunate thing is the NAO is not playing ball. Thereā€™s not going to be higher heights in that region for the foreseeable future
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Maybe the hope is that the mega ridge modeled up around AK and into the North Pacific could be looked at as a wild card. A wobble here or there is going to make a massive difference downstream. The unfortunate thing is the NAO is not playing ball. Thereā€™s not going to be higher heights in that region for the foreseeable future
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Yep. Seems like in every nina recently we get these big npac nuke ridges which we have to ride or die with
 
The Aleutian & Scandinavian ridges are tag teaming the development of the SE ridge in late month & no amount of fantasy land temperature maps on deterministic models is going to change the fact that this isnā€™t exactly a cold pattern for the SE US.

Until the Scandinavian ridge retrogrades over Greenland & the Baffin Bay and becomes a strong -NAO (which it could early Jan), the warmer-than-normal days will likely outweigh any cooler ones in frequency and intensity. Sure, we could CAD for a few days and keep things seasonable for a little bit, but it probably will be followed by even more anomalously warmer days when those CADs break

Once/if the -NAO shows up, the CADs will probably become stronger and more frequent and be able to more easily hold the warm air masses at bay to the SW, but weā€™re still a little ways from that here

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Webberweather53 said:
A lot of people like to forget that the onset of these +NAO >> -NAO transitions usually are associated with ridging over the SE US as the Scandinavian high goes up.

You will have to take your medicine at some point if you want the -NAO to come back in early January

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Easy medicine to take if the eventual outcome is cold and winter weather.

It's hard to believe how expectations fail to meet reality every single winter. It is just rarely going to be cold and snowy in the southeast all winter long. It's more likely to be warm and snowless all winter long these days.

We will have had about 3 weeks of cold weather. It's going to warm up eventually.

I have higher expectations for the winter as a whole. It remains to be seen how that plays out. But I think most of us will be happy, when it's all said and done IF we are reasonable.

In any event, the unending ensemble means 2 weeks out showing all warm everywhere is just a mean. It doesn't very well show the daily variability that can exist within an overall hostile pattern. As you said, transient bouts of CAD are possible, even though the mean doesn't really articulate that.

I just wish one winter that everyone could get out of their feelings and get through the season without bickering, poking, and being passive aggressive with their posts. It's just silly and unnecessary. And, gasp, it doesn't change the outcome at all.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Aleutian & Scandinavian ridges are tag teaming the development of the SE ridge in late month & no amount of fantasy land temperature maps on deterministic models is going to change the fact that this isnā€™t exactly a cold pattern for the SE US.

Until the Scandinavian ridge retrogrades over Greenland & the Baffin Bay and becomes a strong -NAO (which it could early Jan), the warmer-than-normal days will likely outweigh any cooler ones in frequency and intensity. Sure, we could CAD for a few days and keep things seasonable for a little bit, but it probably will be followed by even more anomalously warmer days when those CADs break

Once/if the -NAO shows up, the CADs will probably become stronger and more frequent and be able to more easily hold the warm air masses at bay to the SW, but weā€™re still a little ways from that here

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As many have said, get it out of the way now and have things reset for January
 
LukeBarrette said:
As many have said, get it out of the way now and have things reset for January
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The -NAO at least puts us in the game and I'd take it. But if I'm being honest the -NAO being our only hope without pacific cooperation give me little solace. We need the -EPO/+PNA to cooperate (some variation that allows the cold to enter in at least the central conus). -NAO by itself I feel will just give us cool/wedgy rains. Maybe if that PV is trapped south enough we'd score but that rarely happens. I guess I'm saying I really want to see a pacific shake up.
 
SnowNiner said:
The -NAO at least puts us in the game and I'd take it. But if I'm being honest the -NAO being our only hope without pacific cooperation give me little solace. We need the -EPO/+PNA to cooperate (some variation that allows the cold to enter in at least the central conus). -NAO by itself I feel will just give us cool/wedgy rains. Maybe if that PV is trapped south enough we'd score but that rarely happens. I guess I'm saying I really want to see a pacific shake up.
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NEEEEEEEED that pacific shake up. As we can see a decent pacific can work for Mid-Atlantic but not for anyone in the southeast. Need +PNA to be solid
 
SnowNiner said:
The -NAO at least puts us in the game and I'd take it. But if I'm being honest the -NAO being our only hope without pacific cooperation give me little solace. We need the -EPO/+PNA to cooperate (some variation that allows the cold to enter in at least the central conus). -NAO by itself I feel will just give us cool/wedgy rains. Maybe if that PV is trapped south enough we'd score but that rarely happens. I guess I'm saying I really want to see a pacific shake up.
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Strongly -PNA Decembers during -ENSO have a tendency to rise substantially in Jan:

Wintry - Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone

Hey FRO can you explain what this is showing please? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
southernwx.com
 
The EPS weeklies have gotten uglier for those who like winter weather. The temperature forecast shows a blowtorch through the New Year and after that, it cools things down through the middle of January to only three above normal. I know things in a long range weather forecast are never written in stone but things look discouraging from late next week through the end of the period they cover.
 
weather bubba said:
The EPS weeklies have gotten uglier for those who like winter weather. The temperature forecast shows a blowtorch through the New Year and after that, it cools things down through the middle of January to only three above normal. I know things in a long range weather forecast are never written in stone but things look discouraging from late next week through the end of the period they cover.
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Yep. They get uglier every run. They do this every winter, with the exception of about a 2 week period. That's why they get posted like crazy when they actually show cold. It's so rare.
 
Twister said:
They en

Are you addicted to CAD? Asking for a friend
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Well this is a weather forum and it's a routine thing that happens here just about every 5-10 days minimum around here. Pointing that out when it is one of the most common weather patterns that show up is not being addicted but go on.
 
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