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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

TriplePhaser said:
With the SOI taking going forward and more westerly wind bursts forecasted, any -EAMT should be on the weaker side. As Grit said, we'll have to wait til Dec 15th -20th or so for +EAMT chances that'll add momentum to the Pacific jet!
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The trough has been too far east lately or no? I feel a retrograde would help out some imo
 
Mitch West said:
Arctic blast backing off for the Southeast. Been the trend since last night. I wonder if we reverse this over the coming days.

This is the first time in awhile we've ticked in the opposite direction for cold in the medium term. Might just be delayed though.
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Starting to cave to the Euro Ai.


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Originally models portrayed late November warm but corrected cold. Then early December was gonna be a torch but have likewise corrected cold. The same is now true for mid December week two and three(warm but have since come back to reality). Now models are showing we'll go mild by Winter solstice but will likely correct east again! Not once has the warmth moved up in time and I don't expect that to change until at least mid January or so(prehaps a thaw?)

Judah Cohen is most likely going to be correct in calling for a fridget 3ed week of December as a -NPO/AO/NAO +PNA should lock the cold air in place for awhile. Yes the AO/NAO could briefly go nuetral/positive towards the 20th but I believe it'll recharge sometime thereafter as the NPO stays negative.

Also after the 10th I think we'll have more moisture to work with and a potential storm 13th-16th(no garantees) as the Pacific reshuffles!

The Euro has a strong trough over east Asia by the 20th causing a strong -EAMT of which I am highly sceptical of happening and will likely change moving forward.
 
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There’s no question that the CAD wedge has been the big winner in the SE US so far this month.

My area has had almost every day mainly cloudy, rain on most days, and every day 12/1-7 has had highs only in the 50s! That’s very hard to do on every day for a week in early Dec with normal highs 10 degrees warmer. As a matter of fact, it’s so hard that this is the first time on record that it has happened with records going all of the way back to 1874!

Interestingly, the highs have ticked down each day this month: 59, 58, 55, 54, 53, 52, and 50.

I see that GSO has had all highs only in the 40s Dec 1-7. I wonder if that’s ever on record happened there. Anyone know?

Edit: If that’s not enough, the forecast is calling for 2 more days of 50s highs, which will make it Dec 1-9! Same idea for GSO with 2 more sub 50 highs for Dec 8-9!
 
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8 years ago today. The biggest surprise snow I’ve ever seen. Woke up expecting maybe a slushy inch or 2, ended up with 11 inches of concrete. It just kept snowing for 12 hours straight. Pure bliss. Hope to experience something similar again someday soon ❄️❄️❄️

Check out that radar. When I woke up and saw this I knew we had a chance to overperform
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Roof of the shop out back collapsed from the weight

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jrips27 said:
8 years ago today. The biggest surprise snow I’ve ever seen. Woke up expecting maybe a slushy inch or 2, ended up with 11 inches of concrete. It just kept snowing for 12 hours straight. Pure bliss. Hope to experience something similar again someday soon ❄️❄️❄️

Check out that radar. When I woke up and saw this I knew we had a chance to overperform
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Roof of the shop out back collapsed from the weight

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Yes I believe it was 8 years ago Monday night (8th going into the 9th). I was staying at a hotel in Carrollton visiting family. I drove down from Indiana and was so excited ! I measured 8 inches. There was about a foot not far away in Bremen !
 
Nothing spells loosing like a monster LP parked up off the coast of Alaska / swallowing The NE Pacific, sitting there spinning its wheels. a Positive PNA, monster ridge up the west coast of US/Canada is always Numero UNO. Everything else, mjo, nao etc is fodder without proper ridging out there. Hope the models are off LR this a.m. in how they place, align everything. If not, are goose gets cooked from next weekend through Christmas.

Trof just anchors in place off Alaska on every ensemble and op. What a 180.
 
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I may have jinxed the cold y’all, I’m going traveling this weekend and was warning about the cold in the NW part of the state based on the early forecast…needless to say, the 180 fits.

I just hope it holds here and doesn’t keep warming as I picked a sweater online that I really like to wear.
 
NCSNOW said:
Nothing spells loosing like a monster LP parked up off the coast of Alaska / swallowing The NE Pacific, sitting there spinning its wheels. a Positive PNA, monster ridge up the west coast of US/Canada is always Numero UNO. Everything else, mjo, nao etc is fodder without proper ridging out there. Hope the models are off LR this a.m. in how they place, align everything. If not, are goose gets cooked from next weekend through Christmas.

Trof just anchors in place off Alaska on every ensemble and op. What a 180.
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Yea I feel like we’re done through Christmas. Only positives are that there’s fresh deep cold in Canada and very good snow cover. We just have to to hope that cold drops in our direction post-Christmas. Mjo still looks good in the long range, so maybe that tips the odds in our favor for the end of the year.
 
NCSNOW said:
Nothing spells loosing like a monster LP parked up off the coast of Alaska / swallowing The NE Pacific, sitting there spinning its wheels. a Positive PNA, monster ridge up the west coast of US/Canada is always Numero UNO. Everything else, mjo, nao etc is fodder without proper ridging out there. Hope the models are off LR this a.m. in how they place, align everything. If not, are goose gets cooked from next weekend through Christmas.

Trof just anchors in place off Alaska on every ensemble and op. What a 180.
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Yeah, it's hard to believe such a sudden 180 in LR, but there's something to it if they're all headed that way. Just figures headed into climo for us. Hopefully it doesn't last for a month, but it'll probably be 2-3 weeks anyway. IDK
 
rburrel2 said:
Yea I feel like we’re done through Christmas. Only positives are that there’s fresh deep cold in Canada and very good snow cover. We just have to to hope that cold drops in our direction post-Christmas. Mjo still looks good in the long range, so maybe that tips the odds in our favor for the end of the year.
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CFS Latest run is awesome for my area post Christmas and as we flip into new year. But that can and will change a lot, long ways out. My area has been rewarded so far, thanks to CAD. Way below normal 8 days into Dec. so no complaints. Just hate to punt Dec 15-24. Have to see what evolves past that.
Good news is , if history repeats itself, the day 10-15 stuff will reverse back 180. Weve seen the models suck us into doom an gloom repeatedly advertising torch, only to correct themselves. Amazing how affected we are in the winter by what evolves off the coast of Alaska, NE Pacific
 
jrips27 said:
8 years ago today. The biggest surprise snow I’ve ever seen. Woke up expecting maybe a slushy inch or 2, ended up with 11 inches of concrete. It just kept snowing for 12 hours straight. Pure bliss. Hope to experience something similar again someday soon ❄️❄️❄️

Check out that radar. When I woke up and saw this I knew we had a chance to overperform
View attachment 178468
View attachment 178470

Roof of the shop out back collapsed from the weight

View attachment 178473View attachment 178472View attachment 178471View attachment 178474
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This is what I want for Christmas. Only December snow I want or care about.
 
NCSNOW said:
CFS Latest run is awesome for my area post Christmas and as we flip into new year. But that can and will change a lot, long ways out. My area has been rewarded so far, thanks to CAD. Way below normal 8 days into Dec. so no complaints. Just hate to punt Dec 15-24. Have to see what evolves past that.
Good news is , if history repeats itself, the day 10-15 stuff will reverse back 180. Weve seen the models suck us into doom an gloom repeatedly advertising torch, only to correct themselves. Amazing how affected we are in the winter by what evolves off the coast of Alaska, NE Pacific
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The same people clinging to the long range GFS must have missed the hurricane it had threatening south Florida yesterday morning.
 
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